Former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin secured the Democratic endorsement for Connecticut’s 1st Congressional District at the May nominating convention, defeating 14-term incumbent John Larson by 10 votes on the final ballot in a rare upset that positions Bronin atop the August 11 primary ballot. This outcome, combined with a late-May VoteVets poll showing Bronin ahead of Larson 38 percent to 30 percent, has driven trader consensus toward Bronin as the frontrunner. Larson has responded by attempting to reframe the contest as an ideological divide, while state Representative Jillian Gilchrest’s qualification for the three-way primary ballot adds a potential spoiler dynamic that could influence final vote shares among the remaining contenders.