With Iowa's U.S. Senate primaries two months away on June 2, trader consensus prices Republicans at 62.5% to retain the open seat vacated by retiring Sen. Joni Ernst, reflecting the state's strong GOP lean and U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson's dominance in the Republican primary through superior fundraising—over $5 million cash on hand—and endorsements from President Trump, Gov. Kim Reynolds, and Ernst. Democrats Zach Wahls and Josh Turek compete closely in their primary, with Wahls holding an edge per February polling, but face structural challenges in the red state absent early general election surveys. Ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball list it as Likely Republican ahead of the November 3 general election.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones al Senado de Iowa
Ganador de las elecciones al Senado de Iowa
$83,198 Vol.
$83,198 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Republicano
63%
Demócrata
38%
$83,198 Vol.
$83,198 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Republicano
$39,879 Vol.
63%
Demócrata
$43,319 Vol.
38%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.With Iowa's U.S. Senate primaries two months away on June 2, trader consensus prices Republicans at 62.5% to retain the open seat vacated by retiring Sen. Joni Ernst, reflecting the state's strong GOP lean and U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson's dominance in the Republican primary through superior fundraising—over $5 million cash on hand—and endorsements from President Trump, Gov. Kim Reynolds, and Ernst. Democrats Zach Wahls and Josh Turek compete closely in their primary, with Wahls holding an edge per February polling, but face structural challenges in the red state absent early general election surveys. Ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball list it as Likely Republican ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Mercado abierto: Oct 13, 2025, 5:31 PM ET
Volumen
$83,198Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:31 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.With Iowa's U.S. Senate primaries two months away on June 2, trader consensus prices Republicans at 62.5% to retain the open seat vacated by retiring Sen. Joni Ernst, reflecting the state's strong GOP lean and U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson's dominance in the Republican primary through superior fundraising—over $5 million cash on hand—and endorsements from President Trump, Gov. Kim Reynolds, and Ernst. Democrats Zach Wahls and Josh Turek compete closely in their primary, with Wahls holding an edge per February polling, but face structural challenges in the red state absent early general election surveys. Ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball list it as Likely Republican ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volumen
$83,198Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:31 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...With Iowa's U.S. Senate primaries two months away on June 2, trader consensus prices Republicans at 62.5% to retain the open seat vacated by retiring Sen. Joni Ernst, reflecting the state's strong GOP lean and U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson's dominance in the Republican primary through superior fundraising—over $5 million cash on hand—and endorsements from President Trump, Gov. Kim Reynolds, and Ernst. Democrats Zach Wahls and Josh Turek compete closely in their primary, with Wahls holding an edge per February polling, but face structural challenges in the red state absent early general election surveys. Ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball list it as Likely Republican ahead of the November 3 general election.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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