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Política·Trump

Ganador de la elección especial de NJ-11

Market icon
Política·Trump

Ganador de la elección especial de NJ-11

Analilia Mejía 96.8%

Joe Hathaway 2.1%

Alan Bond 1.8%

Polymarket
NEW

Analilia Mejía 96.8%

Joe Hathaway 2.1%

Alan Bond 1.8%

Polymarket
NEW

Analilia Mejía

$0 Vol.

97%

Joe Hathaway

$663 Vol.

2%

Alan Bond

$0 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. The special election is scheduled to take place April 16, 2026. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If no winner is announced by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.Trader consensus heavily favors Analilia Mejia at 97% implied probability in the NJ-11 special election, driven by her dominant performance in the recent Democratic primary where she secured over 75% of the vote amid strong party endorsements and superior fundraising. The district's Democratic lean—Biden carried it by 5 points in 2020, and incumbent Mikie Sherrill won re-election by 6 points in 2024—bolsters her position against fragmented Republican challengers Joe Hathaway and Alan Bond, who lack comparable polling or resources. Recent developments include Mejia's campaign momentum from local union backing and no major GOP consolidation. Challenges could arise from unexpectedly high Republican turnout, a late scandal, or legal disputes over ballot access ahead of the election date.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. The special election is scheduled to take place April 16, 2026.

This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.

If no winner is announced by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.
Volumen
$663
Fecha de finalización
Apr 16, 2026
Mercado abierto
Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. The special election is scheduled to take place April 16, 2026. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If no winner is announced by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.Trader consensus heavily favors Analilia Mejia at 97% implied probability in the NJ-11 special election, driven by her dominant performance in the recent Democratic primary where she secured over 75% of the vote amid strong party endorsements and superior fundraising. The district's Democratic lean—Biden carried it by 5 points in 2020, and incumbent Mikie Sherrill won re-election by 6 points in 2024—bolsters her position against fragmented Republican challengers Joe Hathaway and Alan Bond, who lack comparable polling or resources. Recent developments include Mejia's campaign momentum from local union backing and no major GOP consolidation. Challenges could arise from unexpectedly high Republican turnout, a late scandal, or legal disputes over ballot access ahead of the election date.

Trader consensus heavily favors Analilia Mejia at 97% implied probability in the NJ-11 special election, driven by her dominant performance in the recent Democratic primary where she secured over 75% of the vote amid strong party endorsements and superior fundraising. The district's Democratic lean—Biden carried it by 5 points in 2020, and incumbent Mikie Sherrill won re-election by 6 points in 2024—bolsters her position against fragmented Republican challengers Joe Hathaway and Alan Bond, who lack comparable polling or resources. Recent developments include Mejia's campaign momentum from local union backing and no major GOP consolidation. Challenges could arise from unexpectedly high Republican turnout, a late scandal, or legal disputes over ballot access ahead of the election date.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Ganador de la elección especial de NJ-11" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 3 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Analilia Mejía" con 97%, seguido de "Joe Hathaway" con 2%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 97¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 97% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

"Ganador de la elección especial de NJ-11" es un mercado recién creado en Polymarket, lanzado el Feb 26, 2026. Como mercado nuevo, esta es tu oportunidad de ser uno de los primeros operadores en establecer las probabilidades y las señales de precio iniciales del mercado. También puedes guardar esta página en marcadores para seguir el volumen y la actividad de trading a medida que el mercado gana tracción.

Para operar en "Ganador de la elección especial de NJ-11", explora los 3 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "Ganador de la elección especial de NJ-11" es "Analilia Mejía" con 97%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 97% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Joe Hathaway" con 2%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "Ganador de la elección especial de NJ-11" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.