Incumbent Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul commands strong trader consensus at 91.5% implied probability for reelection on November 3, 2026, driven by New York's deep-blue partisan lean, massive Democratic voter registration edge over Republicans, and her recent high approval ratings topping four-year highs. Recent Siena and Marist polls show her leading GOP Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman by 17-20 points, though a March 25 McLaughlin internal survey narrowed it to 52%-43% among likely voters amid criticism of state taxes and energy costs. With filing deadline April 6 and primaries June 23, odds reflect incumbency advantages and historical Democratic dominance in statewide races. Upsets could arise from a stronger Republican nominee like Rep. Elise Stefanik entering, a major Hochul scandal, or a national GOP wave boosting turnout in battleground suburbs.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoGanador de la elección de gobernador de Nueva York
Ganador de la elección de gobernador de Nueva York
$25,508 Vol.
$25,508 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Demócrata
92%
Republicano
8%
$25,508 Vol.
$25,508 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Demócrata
$25,508 Vol.
92%
Republicano
$0 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 New York gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul commands strong trader consensus at 91.5% implied probability for reelection on November 3, 2026, driven by New York's deep-blue partisan lean, massive Democratic voter registration edge over Republicans, and her recent high approval ratings topping four-year highs. Recent Siena and Marist polls show her leading GOP Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman by 17-20 points, though a March 25 McLaughlin internal survey narrowed it to 52%-43% among likely voters amid criticism of state taxes and energy costs. With filing deadline April 6 and primaries June 23, odds reflect incumbency advantages and historical Democratic dominance in statewide races. Upsets could arise from a stronger Republican nominee like Rep. Elise Stefanik entering, a major Hochul scandal, or a national GOP wave boosting turnout in battleground suburbs.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 New York gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Mercado abierto: Oct 13, 2025, 5:45 PM ET
Volumen
$25,508Fecha de finalización
Nov 3, 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:45 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 New York gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul commands strong trader consensus at 91.5% implied probability for reelection on November 3, 2026, driven by New York's deep-blue partisan lean, massive Democratic voter registration edge over Republicans, and her recent high approval ratings topping four-year highs. Recent Siena and Marist polls show her leading GOP Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman by 17-20 points, though a March 25 McLaughlin internal survey narrowed it to 52%-43% among likely voters amid criticism of state taxes and energy costs. With filing deadline April 6 and primaries June 23, odds reflect incumbency advantages and historical Democratic dominance in statewide races. Upsets could arise from a stronger Republican nominee like Rep. Elise Stefanik entering, a major Hochul scandal, or a national GOP wave boosting turnout in battleground suburbs.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 New York gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volumen
$25,508Fecha de finalización
Nov 3, 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:45 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul commands strong trader consensus at 91.5% implied probability for reelection on November 3, 2026, driven by New York's deep-blue partisan lean, massive Democratic voter registration edge over Republicans, and her recent high approval ratings topping four-year highs. Recent Siena and Marist polls show her leading GOP Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman by 17-20 points, though a March 25 McLaughlin internal survey narrowed it to 52%-43% among likely voters amid criticism of state taxes and energy costs. With filing deadline April 6 and primaries June 23, odds reflect incumbency advantages and historical Democratic dominance in statewide races. Upsets could arise from a stronger Republican nominee like Rep. Elise Stefanik entering, a major Hochul scandal, or a national GOP wave boosting turnout in battleground suburbs.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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