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Política·Primarias

Ganador de las primarias republicanas de FL-19

Market icon
Política·Primarias

Ganador de las primarias republicanas de FL-19

Catalina Lauf 40%

Madison Cawthorn 17.2%

Jim Oberweis 9.5%

Jim Schwartzel 5%

Polymarket

$18,239 Vol.

Catalina Lauf 40%

Madison Cawthorn 17.2%

Jim Oberweis 9.5%

Jim Schwartzel 5%

Polymarket

$18,239 Vol.

Catalina Lauf

$15,461 Vol.

54%

Madison Cawthorn

$721 Vol.

17%

Jim Oberweis

$2,057 Vol.

10%

Jim Schwartzel

$0 Vol.

19%

Bob Rommel

$0 Vol.

2%

Spencer Roach

$0 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus positions Catalina Lauf as the clear frontrunner at 53.5% implied probability to win Florida's 19th Congressional District Republican primary on August 18, propelled by her Trump administration service, conservative influencer status, and endorsement from Rep. Anna Paulina Luna in February, signaling strong MAGA appeal in this open seat vacated by Byron Donalds. Madison Cawthorn's odds climbed to 17.2% after Johnny Fratto's late February withdrawal and endorsement, leveraging his prior congressional name recognition despite past controversies. Local media executive Jim Schwartzel holds 17.5% on business-oriented messaging as a non-carpetbagger alternative, while self-funded Jim Oberweis lags at 9.5% amid concerns over his age and Illinois roots. Absent public polls, pricing reflects early fundraising edges—Oberweis at nearly $3 million cash-on-hand—and perceived momentum, with candidate filing deadline April 24 potentially reshaping the crowded field.

Trader consensus positions Catalina Lauf as the clear frontrunner at 53.5% implied probability to win Florida's 19th Congressional District Republican primary on August 18, propelled by her Trump administration service, conservative influencer status, and endorsement from Rep. Anna Paulina Luna in February, signaling strong MAGA appeal in this open seat vacated by Byron Donalds. Madison Cawthorn's odds climbed to 17.2% after Johnny Fratto's late February withdrawal and endorsement, leveraging his prior congressional name recognition despite past controversies. Local media executive Jim Schwartzel holds 17.5% on business-oriented messaging as a non-carpetbagger alternative, while self-funded Jim Oberweis lags at 9.5% amid concerns over his age and Illinois roots. Absent public polls, pricing reflects early fundraising edges—Oberweis at nearly $3 million cash-on-hand—and perceived momentum, with candidate filing deadline April 24 potentially reshaping the crowded field.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus positions Catalina Lauf as the clear frontrunner at 53.5% implied probability to win Florida's 19th Congressional District Republican primary on August 18, propelled by her Trump administration service, conservative influencer status, and endorsement from Rep. Anna Paulina Luna in February, signaling strong MAGA appeal in this open seat vacated by Byron Donalds. Madison Cawthorn's odds climbed to 17.2% after Johnny Fratto's late February withdrawal and endorsement, leveraging his prior congressional name recognition despite past controversies. Local media executive Jim Schwartzel holds 17.5% on business-oriented messaging as a non-carpetbagger alternative, while self-funded Jim Oberweis lags at 9.5% amid concerns over his age and Illinois roots. Absent public polls, pricing reflects early fundraising edges—Oberweis at nearly $3 million cash-on-hand—and perceived momentum, with candidate filing deadline April 24 potentially reshaping the crowded field.

Trader consensus positions Catalina Lauf as the clear frontrunner at 53.5% implied probability to win Florida's 19th Congressional District Republican primary on August 18, propelled by her Trump administration service, conservative influencer status, and endorsement from Rep. Anna Paulina Luna in February, signaling strong MAGA appeal in this open seat vacated by Byron Donalds. Madison Cawthorn's odds climbed to 17.2% after Johnny Fratto's late February withdrawal and endorsement, leveraging his prior congressional name recognition despite past controversies. Local media executive Jim Schwartzel holds 17.5% on business-oriented messaging as a non-carpetbagger alternative, while self-funded Jim Oberweis lags at 9.5% amid concerns over his age and Illinois roots. Absent public polls, pricing reflects early fundraising edges—Oberweis at nearly $3 million cash-on-hand—and perceived momentum, with candidate filing deadline April 24 potentially reshaping the crowded field.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Ganador de las primarias republicanas de FL-19" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 6 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Catalina Lauf" con 54%, seguido de "Jim Schwartzel" con 19%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 54¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 54% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "Ganador de las primarias republicanas de FL-19" ha generado $18.2K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Nov 25, 2025. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "Ganador de las primarias republicanas de FL-19", explora los 6 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "Ganador de las primarias republicanas de FL-19" es "Catalina Lauf" con 54%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 54% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Jim Schwartzel" con 19%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "Ganador de las primarias republicanas de FL-19" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.