Mary Peltola holds a commanding lead in first-choice votes following the November 3 election, with ongoing counts showing her ahead of incumbent Dan Sullivan by roughly 2,500 ballots at 75% reporting. Alaska's ranked-choice voting process, scheduled for tabulation on November 18 after all absentee and questioned ballots arrive, favors Peltola under current distributions according to trader assessments of second- and third-choice preferences from eliminated candidates. Certification is targeted for November 25. Remaining vote patterns from urban and rural precincts, combined with historical RCV dynamics in the state, underpin the market's strong consensus on Peltola. Late shifts in outstanding ballots or successful legal challenges to certification represent the primary scenarios that could still alter the result before the new Congress convenes.