Mary Peltola leads the Alaska Senate race in trader consensus due to consistent polling advantages and superior fundraising that signal stronger momentum heading into the August nonpartisan primary. Recent Alaska Survey Research surveys from March through May show her ahead or within a few points of incumbent Dan Sullivan, building on her prior statewide wins under ranked-choice voting. Peltola raised a record $8.9 million in the first quarter, drawing national Democratic support, while Sullivan seeks a third term with a Trump endorsement but faces headwinds from the state’s competitive environment. A late-filing Republican challenger sharing Sullivan’s name has introduced potential ballot confusion, further tilting probabilities toward Peltola in the general election. The race remains fluid with months until November voting.