Mary Peltola holds a narrow first-preference lead of roughly 637 votes (48.2% to 47.9%) over incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan after 74% of ballots were counted in the November 3 election, with no candidate reaching a majority. Alaska’s ranked-choice voting process, scheduled to begin tabulating after the final absentee ballots arrive by November 18, drives trader expectations that Peltola will consolidate enough second and third choices to surpass 50%. Remaining ballots from remote areas and military voters, plus potential second-choice patterns from eliminated candidates Gerald Heikes and Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., represent the main variables. Legal challenges to certification or disputes over the second Sullivan’s presence on the ballot could still introduce delays or uncertainty before the December 15 certification deadline.