Recent polls from Alaska Survey Research in March and April 2026 show Democratic challenger Mary Peltola holding a narrow lead over incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan in head-to-head matchups, with margins of five to seven points among likely voters. Peltola's record first-quarter fundraising of nearly $9 million has far outpaced Sullivan's totals, strengthening her position in a state that uses ranked-choice voting for the November 3, 2026 general election. Traders appear to weigh her prior statewide success and focus on affordability issues against Sullivan's incumbency and endorsements, producing the current implied probabilities. Minor candidates remain negligible in both polling and market pricing.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones al Senado de Alaska
Ganador de las elecciones al Senado de Alaska
Mary Peltola 62%
Dan Sullivan 40%
Dustin Darden <1%
Ann Diener <1%
$324,061 Vol.
$324,061 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Mary Peltola
62%
Dan Sullivan
40%
Dustin Darden
<1%
Ann Diener
<1%
Richard Grayson
<1%
Mary Peltola 62%
Dan Sullivan 40%
Dustin Darden <1%
Ann Diener <1%
$324,061 Vol.
$324,061 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Mary Peltola
$158,950 Vol.
62%
Dan Sullivan
$89,559 Vol.
40%
Dustin Darden
$21,303 Vol.
<1%
Ann Diener
$33,723 Vol.
<1%
Richard Grayson
$20,526 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.Recent polls from Alaska Survey Research in March and April 2026 show Democratic challenger Mary Peltola holding a narrow lead over incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan in head-to-head matchups, with margins of five to seven points among likely voters. Peltola's record first-quarter fundraising of nearly $9 million has far outpaced Sullivan's totals, strengthening her position in a state that uses ranked-choice voting for the November 3, 2026 general election. Traders appear to weigh her prior statewide success and focus on affordability issues against Sullivan's incumbency and endorsements, producing the current implied probabilities. Minor candidates remain negligible in both polling and market pricing.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Mercado abierto: Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ET
Volumen
$324,061Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.Recent polls from Alaska Survey Research in March and April 2026 show Democratic challenger Mary Peltola holding a narrow lead over incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan in head-to-head matchups, with margins of five to seven points among likely voters. Peltola's record first-quarter fundraising of nearly $9 million has far outpaced Sullivan's totals, strengthening her position in a state that uses ranked-choice voting for the November 3, 2026 general election. Traders appear to weigh her prior statewide success and focus on affordability issues against Sullivan's incumbency and endorsements, producing the current implied probabilities. Minor candidates remain negligible in both polling and market pricing.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Volumen
$324,061Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polls from Alaska Survey Research in March and April 2026 show Democratic challenger Mary Peltola holding a narrow lead over incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan in head-to-head matchups, with margins of five to seven points among likely voters. Peltola's record first-quarter fundraising of nearly $9 million has far outpaced Sullivan's totals, strengthening her position in a state that uses ranked-choice voting for the November 3, 2026 general election. Traders appear to weigh her prior statewide success and focus on affordability issues against Sullivan's incumbency and endorsements, producing the current implied probabilities. Minor candidates remain negligible in both polling and market pricing.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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