Mary Peltola leads trader consensus at 59 percent in the Alaska Senate race against incumbent Dan Sullivan at 41.5 percent, reflecting her consistent polling edge in Alaska Survey Research surveys and dominant first-quarter fundraising that exceeded Sullivan’s total by more than four times. Peltola’s January 2026 entry into the contest against the two-term Republican has positioned the race as competitive in a state that uses a nonpartisan August primary followed by ranked-choice voting in November. The recent qualification of a second Republican named Dan Sullivan on the primary ballot has introduced potential voter confusion that may further pressure the incumbent. These factors, alongside Peltola’s prior statewide success, shape current market-implied probabilities ahead of the general election.