Republican appointee Ashley Moody maintains a commanding lead in recent polls for Florida's 2026 U.S. Senate special election, driving trader consensus to an 82.5% implied probability for a GOP victory. Stetson University (late April) shows Moody ahead 49%-42% over Democrat Alexander Vindman and 51%-38% against Angie Nixon, while averages from RealClearPolling (+7.5) and 270toWin (Moody 47%, Vindman 41%) reflect consistent 6-10 point edges amid undecideds. Florida's Republican lean, Moody's incumbency advantage following Marco Rubio's resignation, and GOP midterm momentum outweigh Democratic fundraising surges, though tighter polls from firm sponsors highlight competitiveness ahead of August 18 primaries.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones al Senado de Florida
Ganador de las elecciones al Senado de Florida
$36,313 Vol.
$36,313 Vol.
Republicano
83%
Demócrata
17%
$36,313 Vol.
$36,313 Vol.
Republicano
$19,169 Vol.
83%
Demócrata
$17,144 Vol.
17%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Republican appointee Ashley Moody maintains a commanding lead in recent polls for Florida's 2026 U.S. Senate special election, driving trader consensus to an 82.5% implied probability for a GOP victory. Stetson University (late April) shows Moody ahead 49%-42% over Democrat Alexander Vindman and 51%-38% against Angie Nixon, while averages from RealClearPolling (+7.5) and 270toWin (Moody 47%, Vindman 41%) reflect consistent 6-10 point edges amid undecideds. Florida's Republican lean, Moody's incumbency advantage following Marco Rubio's resignation, and GOP midterm momentum outweigh Democratic fundraising surges, though tighter polls from firm sponsors highlight competitiveness ahead of August 18 primaries.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Mercado abierto: Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ET
Volumen
$36,313Mercado abierto
Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Republican appointee Ashley Moody maintains a commanding lead in recent polls for Florida's 2026 U.S. Senate special election, driving trader consensus to an 82.5% implied probability for a GOP victory. Stetson University (late April) shows Moody ahead 49%-42% over Democrat Alexander Vindman and 51%-38% against Angie Nixon, while averages from RealClearPolling (+7.5) and 270toWin (Moody 47%, Vindman 41%) reflect consistent 6-10 point edges amid undecideds. Florida's Republican lean, Moody's incumbency advantage following Marco Rubio's resignation, and GOP midterm momentum outweigh Democratic fundraising surges, though tighter polls from firm sponsors highlight competitiveness ahead of August 18 primaries.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volumen
$36,313Mercado abierto
Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republican appointee Ashley Moody maintains a commanding lead in recent polls for Florida's 2026 U.S. Senate special election, driving trader consensus to an 82.5% implied probability for a GOP victory. Stetson University (late April) shows Moody ahead 49%-42% over Democrat Alexander Vindman and 51%-38% against Angie Nixon, while averages from RealClearPolling (+7.5) and 270toWin (Moody 47%, Vindman 41%) reflect consistent 6-10 point edges amid undecideds. Florida's Republican lean, Moody's incumbency advantage following Marco Rubio's resignation, and GOP midterm momentum outweigh Democratic fundraising surges, though tighter polls from firm sponsors highlight competitiveness ahead of August 18 primaries.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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