Ashley Moody holds a commanding lead in Florida’s November 3 special Senate election, backed by consistent polling margins of 7–10 points in recent surveys and a substantial Republican voter-registration advantage. As the appointed incumbent who previously won statewide races as attorney general, Moody consolidates over 90 percent of Republican support while drawing strength from White and older voters across most regions. Nixon, a Democratic state representative who upset a better-funded primary opponent, retains strong backing from Democrats and some independents but trails significantly in overall support and fundraising. With roughly one month until Election Day, the market pricing reflects Florida’s structural Republican lean and Moody’s established name recognition; a major late-campaign development or unusually high Democratic turnout would be required to alter the outcome.