Florida's Republican lean and the structural advantages of appointed incumbent Ashley Moody position the GOP as the clear favorite in the November 2026 special election to finish Marco Rubio's term. Moody, selected by Governor Ron DeSantis after Rubio's confirmation as secretary of state, holds early polling leads of three to eight points over leading Democratic primary contenders including Alexander Vindman. Recent May surveys reflect this edge amid Florida's partisan voting patterns and Moody's prior statewide profile as attorney general. Primaries on August 18 will narrow fields before the general, with traders assigning an 81 percent implied probability to a Republican outcome based on these factors.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones al Senado de Florida
Ganador de las elecciones al Senado de Florida
$38,215 Vol.
$38,215 Vol.
Republicano
81%
Demócrata
19%
$38,215 Vol.
$38,215 Vol.
Republicano
$20,108 Vol.
81%
Demócrata
$18,107 Vol.
19%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Florida's Republican lean and the structural advantages of appointed incumbent Ashley Moody position the GOP as the clear favorite in the November 2026 special election to finish Marco Rubio's term. Moody, selected by Governor Ron DeSantis after Rubio's confirmation as secretary of state, holds early polling leads of three to eight points over leading Democratic primary contenders including Alexander Vindman. Recent May surveys reflect this edge amid Florida's partisan voting patterns and Moody's prior statewide profile as attorney general. Primaries on August 18 will narrow fields before the general, with traders assigning an 81 percent implied probability to a Republican outcome based on these factors.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Mercado abierto: Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ET
Volumen
$38,215Mercado abierto
Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Florida's Republican lean and the structural advantages of appointed incumbent Ashley Moody position the GOP as the clear favorite in the November 2026 special election to finish Marco Rubio's term. Moody, selected by Governor Ron DeSantis after Rubio's confirmation as secretary of state, holds early polling leads of three to eight points over leading Democratic primary contenders including Alexander Vindman. Recent May surveys reflect this edge amid Florida's partisan voting patterns and Moody's prior statewide profile as attorney general. Primaries on August 18 will narrow fields before the general, with traders assigning an 81 percent implied probability to a Republican outcome based on these factors.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volumen
$38,215Mercado abierto
Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Florida's Republican lean and the structural advantages of appointed incumbent Ashley Moody position the GOP as the clear favorite in the November 2026 special election to finish Marco Rubio's term. Moody, selected by Governor Ron DeSantis after Rubio's confirmation as secretary of state, holds early polling leads of three to eight points over leading Democratic primary contenders including Alexander Vindman. Recent May surveys reflect this edge amid Florida's partisan voting patterns and Moody's prior statewide profile as attorney general. Primaries on August 18 will narrow fields before the general, with traders assigning an 81 percent implied probability to a Republican outcome based on these factors.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes