Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a tight contest for Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterms, with top outcomes clustered at ≤47 (25.5%), 49 (18%), and 50 (13%), reflecting uncertainty despite the GOP's favorable map defending 22 seats—mostly in safe states—versus Democrats' 13. Historical midterm losses for the president's party, averaging 3.5 Senate seats, combined with early Cook Political Report ratings showing limited tossups in battlegrounds like Georgia (Ossoff D incumbent), North Carolina (Tillis R), and Michigan (open D seat), keep probabilities dispersed. No major developments such as retirements, candidate announcements, or polling shifts in the past 30 days; separation could arise from vulnerable incumbents retiring, national polling averages moving on economic conditions or Trump administration approval, or shifts in swing state turnout ahead of primaries.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado52 seats
≤47 26%
49 18%
50 13%
48 12%
$2,038,032 Vol.
$2,038,032 Vol.
≤47
26%
48
12%
49
18%
50
13%
51
11%
52
10%
53
7%
54
4%
55
2%
56
2%
57+
2%
≤47 26%
49 18%
50 13%
48 12%
$2,038,032 Vol.
$2,038,032 Vol.
≤47
$26,227 Vol.
26%
48
$14,082 Vol.
12%
49
$8,783 Vol.
18%
50
$59,094 Vol.
13%
51
$153,946 Vol.
11%
52
$501,930 Vol.
10%
53
$9,958 Vol.
7%
54
$705,953 Vol.
4%
55
$390,669 Vol.
2%
56
$138,482 Vol.
2%
57+
$28,906 Vol.
2%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a tight contest for Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterms, with top outcomes clustered at ≤47 (25.5%), 49 (18%), and 50 (13%), reflecting uncertainty despite the GOP's favorable map defending 22 seats—mostly in safe states—versus Democrats' 13. Historical midterm losses for the president's party, averaging 3.5 Senate seats, combined with early Cook Political Report ratings showing limited tossups in battlegrounds like Georgia (Ossoff D incumbent), North Carolina (Tillis R), and Michigan (open D seat), keep probabilities dispersed. No major developments such as retirements, candidate announcements, or polling shifts in the past 30 days; separation could arise from vulnerable incumbents retiring, national polling averages moving on economic conditions or Trump administration approval, or shifts in swing state turnout ahead of primaries.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Mercado abierto: Dec 18, 2025, 8:55 PM ET
Volumen
$2,038,032Mercado abierto
Dec 18, 2025, 8:55 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a tight contest for Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterms, with top outcomes clustered at ≤47 (25.5%), 49 (18%), and 50 (13%), reflecting uncertainty despite the GOP's favorable map defending 22 seats—mostly in safe states—versus Democrats' 13. Historical midterm losses for the president's party, averaging 3.5 Senate seats, combined with early Cook Political Report ratings showing limited tossups in battlegrounds like Georgia (Ossoff D incumbent), North Carolina (Tillis R), and Michigan (open D seat), keep probabilities dispersed. No major developments such as retirements, candidate announcements, or polling shifts in the past 30 days; separation could arise from vulnerable incumbents retiring, national polling averages moving on economic conditions or Trump administration approval, or shifts in swing state turnout ahead of primaries.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Volumen
$2,038,032Mercado abierto
Dec 18, 2025, 8:55 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a tight contest for Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterms, with top outcomes clustered at ≤47 (25.5%), 49 (18%), and 50 (13%), reflecting uncertainty despite the GOP's favorable map defending 22 seats—mostly in safe states—versus Democrats' 13. Historical midterm losses for the president's party, averaging 3.5 Senate seats, combined with early Cook Political Report ratings showing limited tossups in battlegrounds like Georgia (Ossoff D incumbent), North Carolina (Tillis R), and Michigan (open D seat), keep probabilities dispersed. No major developments such as retirements, candidate announcements, or polling shifts in the past 30 days; separation could arise from vulnerable incumbents retiring, national polling averages moving on economic conditions or Trump administration approval, or shifts in swing state turnout ahead of primaries.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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