Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a tight contest for Republican Senate seats post-2026 midterms, with ≤47 seats at 25.5% slightly edging 49 at 21%, implying expected net losses of 4–6 from the current 53-seat majority amid historical midterm penalties for the president's party. The map favors Republicans, who defend 22 mostly safe seats versus Democrats' 13 in battlegrounds like Georgia and Michigan, but offsets this with uncertainty over national mood, economic conditions, and President Trump's approval ratings. No major candidate announcements or retirements have emerged in recent weeks, keeping odds clustered; early primary filings, polling averages from swing states, and shifts in party control of governorships could widen separation by mid-2025.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado51 seats
≤47 26%
49 21%
48 14%
50 12%
$2,044,073 Vol.
$2,044,073 Vol.
≤47
26%
48
14%
49
21%
50
12%
51
11%
52
7%
53
7%
54
3%
55
2%
56
1%
57+
1%
≤47 26%
49 21%
48 14%
50 12%
$2,044,073 Vol.
$2,044,073 Vol.
≤47
$27,243 Vol.
26%
48
$14,717 Vol.
14%
49
$10,628 Vol.
21%
50
$59,581 Vol.
12%
51
$154,206 Vol.
11%
52
$502,407 Vol.
7%
53
$10,259 Vol.
7%
54
$706,168 Vol.
3%
55
$391,042 Vol.
2%
56
$138,698 Vol.
1%
57+
$29,122 Vol.
1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a tight contest for Republican Senate seats post-2026 midterms, with ≤47 seats at 25.5% slightly edging 49 at 21%, implying expected net losses of 4–6 from the current 53-seat majority amid historical midterm penalties for the president's party. The map favors Republicans, who defend 22 mostly safe seats versus Democrats' 13 in battlegrounds like Georgia and Michigan, but offsets this with uncertainty over national mood, economic conditions, and President Trump's approval ratings. No major candidate announcements or retirements have emerged in recent weeks, keeping odds clustered; early primary filings, polling averages from swing states, and shifts in party control of governorships could widen separation by mid-2025.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Mercado abierto: Dec 18, 2025, 8:55 PM ET
Volumen
$2,044,073Mercado abierto
Dec 18, 2025, 8:55 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a tight contest for Republican Senate seats post-2026 midterms, with ≤47 seats at 25.5% slightly edging 49 at 21%, implying expected net losses of 4–6 from the current 53-seat majority amid historical midterm penalties for the president's party. The map favors Republicans, who defend 22 mostly safe seats versus Democrats' 13 in battlegrounds like Georgia and Michigan, but offsets this with uncertainty over national mood, economic conditions, and President Trump's approval ratings. No major candidate announcements or retirements have emerged in recent weeks, keeping odds clustered; early primary filings, polling averages from swing states, and shifts in party control of governorships could widen separation by mid-2025.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Volumen
$2,044,073Mercado abierto
Dec 18, 2025, 8:55 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a tight contest for Republican Senate seats post-2026 midterms, with ≤47 seats at 25.5% slightly edging 49 at 21%, implying expected net losses of 4–6 from the current 53-seat majority amid historical midterm penalties for the president's party. The map favors Republicans, who defend 22 mostly safe seats versus Democrats' 13 in battlegrounds like Georgia and Michigan, but offsets this with uncertainty over national mood, economic conditions, and President Trump's approval ratings. No major candidate announcements or retirements have emerged in recent weeks, keeping odds clustered; early primary filings, polling averages from swing states, and shifts in party control of governorships could widen separation by mid-2025.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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