Trader consensus favors 7 Republican senators not seeking re-election in the 2026 midterms at 58%, reflecting one confirmed retirement—Sen. Jim Risch (R-ID) announced October 23—and expectations for six more from the 22 GOP-held seats up for renewal. No new announcements have emerged in the past 30 days, including Sen. Jerry Moran's recent reaffirmation of his candidacy, stabilizing lower-end outcomes like 5 or fewer below 10%. Key drivers include the aging GOP Class 3 incumbents, such as Sen. Chuck Grassley (91), Sen. John Cornyn (74 next year), and Sen. John Boozman (75), alongside historical midterm patterns averaging 5–8 retirements per party during presidential terms. Post-2024 GOP Senate majority gains reduce urgency for some to run, but upcoming transition announcements could shift odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Cuántos senadores republicanos no se postularán en 2026?
¿Cuántos senadores republicanos no se postularán en 2026?
7 57%
6 12%
8 7.7%
5 6.9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
<5
2%
5
7%
6
12%
7
57%
8
8%
9
1%
10
1%
11
7%
12 o más
<1%
7 57%
6 12%
8 7.7%
5 6.9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
<5
$0 Vol.
2%
5
$0 Vol.
7%
6
$0 Vol.
12%
7
$0 Vol.
57%
8
$0 Vol.
8%
9
$0 Vol.
1%
10
$0 Vol.
1%
11
$0 Vol.
7%
12 o más
$4,115 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors 7 Republican senators not seeking re-election in the 2026 midterms at 58%, reflecting one confirmed retirement—Sen. Jim Risch (R-ID) announced October 23—and expectations for six more from the 22 GOP-held seats up for renewal. No new announcements have emerged in the past 30 days, including Sen. Jerry Moran's recent reaffirmation of his candidacy, stabilizing lower-end outcomes like 5 or fewer below 10%. Key drivers include the aging GOP Class 3 incumbents, such as Sen. Chuck Grassley (91), Sen. John Cornyn (74 next year), and Sen. John Boozman (75), alongside historical midterm patterns averaging 5–8 retirements per party during presidential terms. Post-2024 GOP Senate majority gains reduce urgency for some to run, but upcoming transition announcements could shift odds.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Volumen
$4,115Fecha de finalización
Aug 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors 7 Republican senators not seeking re-election in the 2026 midterms at 58%, reflecting one confirmed retirement—Sen. Jim Risch (R-ID) announced October 23—and expectations for six more from the 22 GOP-held seats up for renewal. No new announcements have emerged in the past 30 days, including Sen. Jerry Moran's recent reaffirmation of his candidacy, stabilizing lower-end outcomes like 5 or fewer below 10%. Key drivers include the aging GOP Class 3 incumbents, such as Sen. Chuck Grassley (91), Sen. John Cornyn (74 next year), and Sen. John Boozman (75), alongside historical midterm patterns averaging 5–8 retirements per party during presidential terms. Post-2024 GOP Senate majority gains reduce urgency for some to run, but upcoming transition announcements could shift odds.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$4,115Fecha de finalización
Aug 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors 7 Republican senators not seeking re-election in the 2026 midterms at 58%, reflecting one confirmed retirement—Sen. Jim Risch (R-ID) announced October 23—and expectations for six more from the 22 GOP-held seats up for renewal. No new announcements have emerged in the past 30 days, including Sen. Jerry Moran's recent reaffirmation of his candidacy, stabilizing lower-end outcomes like 5 or fewer below 10%. Key drivers include the aging GOP Class 3 incumbents, such as Sen. Chuck Grassley (91), Sen. John Cornyn (74 next year), and Sen. John Boozman (75), alongside historical midterm patterns averaging 5–8 retirements per party during presidential terms. Post-2024 GOP Senate majority gains reduce urgency for some to run, but upcoming transition announcements could shift odds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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