Democratic-led efforts to impeach Kristi Noem as Homeland Security Secretary gained traction in January 2026 after fatal ICE incidents in Minneapolis, with Representative Robin Kelly introducing articles citing obstruction of Congress, public trust violations, and self-dealing. Over 160 House Democrats co-sponsored the measure, yet the Republican-controlled chamber has taken no further action, consistent with historical patterns where majority parties rarely pursue impeachment against their own administration officials. Noem’s subsequent departure from the position has further reduced any procedural path forward. Traders assign an 89.5% probability to no impeachment occurring in 2026, reflecting the limited legislative momentum and absence of bipartisan consensus or scheduled votes that could alter the outcome before year-end.