Following Sen. Tina Smith's retirement, creating an open seat in Democratic-leaning Minnesota, trader consensus implies a 92% probability of a Democratic victory in the November 2026 general election, driven by early polling averages where Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Rep. Angie Craig lead Republican frontrunner Michele Tafoya by 6-7 points in Emerson and aggregated surveys from February. No major developments have shifted dynamics in the past 30 days, with Sabato's Crystal Ball rating the race Leans Democratic based on the state's history of no Republican Senate wins since 2002 and strong Democratic primary positioning for Flanagan over Craig. Odds could move on a high-profile GOP recruit, a bruising August primaries, national midterm wave favoring Republicans, or scandals impacting key candidates.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones al Senado de Minnesota
Ganador de las elecciones al Senado de Minnesota
$15,728 Vol.
$15,728 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Demócrata
92%
Republicano
9%
$15,728 Vol.
$15,728 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Demócrata
$11,714 Vol.
92%
Republicano
$4,014 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Minnesota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Following Sen. Tina Smith's retirement, creating an open seat in Democratic-leaning Minnesota, trader consensus implies a 92% probability of a Democratic victory in the November 2026 general election, driven by early polling averages where Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Rep. Angie Craig lead Republican frontrunner Michele Tafoya by 6-7 points in Emerson and aggregated surveys from February. No major developments have shifted dynamics in the past 30 days, with Sabato's Crystal Ball rating the race Leans Democratic based on the state's history of no Republican Senate wins since 2002 and strong Democratic primary positioning for Flanagan over Craig. Odds could move on a high-profile GOP recruit, a bruising August primaries, national midterm wave favoring Republicans, or scandals impacting key candidates.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Minnesota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Mercado abierto: Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ET
Volumen
$15,728Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Minnesota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Following Sen. Tina Smith's retirement, creating an open seat in Democratic-leaning Minnesota, trader consensus implies a 92% probability of a Democratic victory in the November 2026 general election, driven by early polling averages where Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Rep. Angie Craig lead Republican frontrunner Michele Tafoya by 6-7 points in Emerson and aggregated surveys from February. No major developments have shifted dynamics in the past 30 days, with Sabato's Crystal Ball rating the race Leans Democratic based on the state's history of no Republican Senate wins since 2002 and strong Democratic primary positioning for Flanagan over Craig. Odds could move on a high-profile GOP recruit, a bruising August primaries, national midterm wave favoring Republicans, or scandals impacting key candidates.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Minnesota U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volumen
$15,728Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Following Sen. Tina Smith's retirement, creating an open seat in Democratic-leaning Minnesota, trader consensus implies a 92% probability of a Democratic victory in the November 2026 general election, driven by early polling averages where Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Rep. Angie Craig lead Republican frontrunner Michele Tafoya by 6-7 points in Emerson and aggregated surveys from February. No major developments have shifted dynamics in the past 30 days, with Sabato's Crystal Ball rating the race Leans Democratic based on the state's history of no Republican Senate wins since 2002 and strong Democratic primary positioning for Flanagan over Craig. Odds could move on a high-profile GOP recruit, a bruising August primaries, national midterm wave favoring Republicans, or scandals impacting key candidates.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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