In the open 2026 Alaska gubernatorial race, with term-limited Gov. Mike Dunleavy sidelined, trader consensus gives Democrat Tom Begich a narrow lead at 25.5% implied probability, buoyed by his 38% showing in a February Lake Research Partners poll and recent Southeast Alaska campaign swings, including Petersburg on March 30 and Wrangell on March 27. Republicans Bernadette Wilson (19.5%, strong February fundraising at $306,000), former Sen. Click Bishop (16.4%), and ex-Attorney General Treg Taylor (15.5%) cluster tightly behind in the splintered field of over a dozen candidates. The nonpartisan top-four primary on August 18 and subsequent ranked-choice general election amplify fragmentation risks; fresh polls, major endorsements, or GOP consolidation could separate frontrunners amid undecided voters hovering near 25%.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoTom Begich 25%
Bernadette Wilson 16%
Edna DeVries 9.1%
Nancy Dahlstrom 9%
$385,416 Vol.
$385,416 Vol.

Tom Begich
25%

Bernadette Wilson
20%

Edna DeVries
10%

Nancy Dahlstrom
9%

Treg Taylor
14%

Lisa Murkowski
6%

David Bronson
5%

James Parkin
5%

Shelley Hughes
4%

Mary Peltola
3%

Click Bishop
20%

Matt Heilala
1%

Adam Crum
1%
Tom Begich 25%
Bernadette Wilson 16%
Edna DeVries 9.1%
Nancy Dahlstrom 9%
$385,416 Vol.
$385,416 Vol.

Tom Begich
25%

Bernadette Wilson
20%

Edna DeVries
10%

Nancy Dahlstrom
9%

Treg Taylor
14%

Lisa Murkowski
6%

David Bronson
5%

James Parkin
5%

Shelley Hughes
4%

Mary Peltola
3%

Click Bishop
20%

Matt Heilala
1%

Adam Crum
1%
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in Alaska for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Mercado abierto: Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in Alaska for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...In the open 2026 Alaska gubernatorial race, with term-limited Gov. Mike Dunleavy sidelined, trader consensus gives Democrat Tom Begich a narrow lead at 25.5% implied probability, buoyed by his 38% showing in a February Lake Research Partners poll and recent Southeast Alaska campaign swings, including Petersburg on March 30 and Wrangell on March 27. Republicans Bernadette Wilson (19.5%, strong February fundraising at $306,000), former Sen. Click Bishop (16.4%), and ex-Attorney General Treg Taylor (15.5%) cluster tightly behind in the splintered field of over a dozen candidates. The nonpartisan top-four primary on August 18 and subsequent ranked-choice general election amplify fragmentation risks; fresh polls, major endorsements, or GOP consolidation could separate frontrunners amid undecided voters hovering near 25%.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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