Incumbent Rep. Adelita Grijalva's commanding 71%-28% special election win in September 2025 against Republican Daniel Butierez has reinforced AZ-07's solid Democratic partisan lean (Cook PVI D+13), propelling trader consensus to 91% implied probability for Democratic Party victory in the November 2026 general election. The Tucson-based district's urban and Latino-heavy electorate consistently delivers large Democratic margins, as seen in recent cycles, while Grijalva's February reelection announcement and Butierez's rematch bid face long odds absent a stronger GOP primary challenger by the April 6 filing deadline. Scenarios like a credible Republican recruit, Grijalva scandal, or national midterm Republican wave could shift dynamics, though structural advantages and incumbency favor continuation of the status quo through the July 21 Democratic primary.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoAZ-07 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
AZ-07 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
Partido Demócrata
92%
Partido Republicano
9%
Partido Demócrata
92%
Partido Republicano
9%
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Adelita Grijalva's commanding 71%-28% special election win in September 2025 against Republican Daniel Butierez has reinforced AZ-07's solid Democratic partisan lean (Cook PVI D+13), propelling trader consensus to 91% implied probability for Democratic Party victory in the November 2026 general election. The Tucson-based district's urban and Latino-heavy electorate consistently delivers large Democratic margins, as seen in recent cycles, while Grijalva's February reelection announcement and Butierez's rematch bid face long odds absent a stronger GOP primary challenger by the April 6 filing deadline. Scenarios like a credible Republican recruit, Grijalva scandal, or national midterm Republican wave could shift dynamics, though structural advantages and incumbency favor continuation of the status quo through the July 21 Democratic primary.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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