Republican David Flippo leads the NV-02 House race with a 73.5% implied probability, while Democrat Teresa Benitez-Thompson trails at 26.5%, reflecting the district’s long-standing Republican tilt and its 14-point Trump margin from 2024. Flippo secured the nomination after winning the June primary with Donald Trump’s endorsement and now benefits from Republican super PAC advertising exceeding $1 million amid recent scrutiny over his residency move, military service descriptions, and financial disclosures. Benitez-Thompson, a former Nevada Assembly majority leader, gained national Democratic support through the DCCC’s Red to Blue program and has appeared competitive in recent polling averages near even or within single digits. Forecasters rate the contest Likely Republican, with the outcome still sensitive to late advertising, turnout in Washoe County and rural areas, and any additional campaign developments before November 3.