Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 93.2% to win Illinois' 4th Congressional District House seat on November 3, driven by the district's entrenched D+17 partisan voting index and Patty Garcia's uncontested March 17 primary victory as chief of staff and successor to retiring Rep. Jesús "Chuy" García. This open race remains a safe Democratic hold per Cook Political Report's Solid D rating, bolstered by the incumbent's prior landslide margins exceeding 67% since 2020. GOP nominee Lupe Castillo and independents like Ald. Byron Sigcho-Lopez and Mayra Macías face formidable barriers amid low fundraising and historical underperformance. Upsets could stem from a major Garcia scandal, vote-splitting independents eroding the Democratic base, or a potent Republican midterm wave.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoIL-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
IL-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$17,581 Vol.
$17,581 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Partido Demócrata
93%
Partido Republicano
5%
$17,581 Vol.
$17,581 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Partido Demócrata
$17,581 Vol.
93%
Partido Republicano
$0 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 93.2% to win Illinois' 4th Congressional District House seat on November 3, driven by the district's entrenched D+17 partisan voting index and Patty Garcia's uncontested March 17 primary victory as chief of staff and successor to retiring Rep. Jesús "Chuy" García. This open race remains a safe Democratic hold per Cook Political Report's Solid D rating, bolstered by the incumbent's prior landslide margins exceeding 67% since 2020. GOP nominee Lupe Castillo and independents like Ald. Byron Sigcho-Lopez and Mayra Macías face formidable barriers amid low fundraising and historical underperformance. Upsets could stem from a major Garcia scandal, vote-splitting independents eroding the Democratic base, or a potent Republican midterm wave.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volumen
$17,581Fecha de finalización
Nov 3, 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 93.2% to win Illinois' 4th Congressional District House seat on November 3, driven by the district's entrenched D+17 partisan voting index and Patty Garcia's uncontested March 17 primary victory as chief of staff and successor to retiring Rep. Jesús "Chuy" García. This open race remains a safe Democratic hold per Cook Political Report's Solid D rating, bolstered by the incumbent's prior landslide margins exceeding 67% since 2020. GOP nominee Lupe Castillo and independents like Ald. Byron Sigcho-Lopez and Mayra Macías face formidable barriers amid low fundraising and historical underperformance. Upsets could stem from a major Garcia scandal, vote-splitting independents eroding the Democratic base, or a potent Republican midterm wave.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$17,581Fecha de finalización
Nov 3, 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 93.2% to win Illinois' 4th Congressional District House seat on November 3, driven by the district's entrenched D+17 partisan voting index and Patty Garcia's uncontested March 17 primary victory as chief of staff and successor to retiring Rep. Jesús "Chuy" García. This open race remains a safe Democratic hold per Cook Political Report's Solid D rating, bolstered by the incumbent's prior landslide margins exceeding 67% since 2020. GOP nominee Lupe Castillo and independents like Ald. Byron Sigcho-Lopez and Mayra Macías face formidable barriers amid low fundraising and historical underperformance. Upsets could stem from a major Garcia scandal, vote-splitting independents eroding the Democratic base, or a potent Republican midterm wave.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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