Illinois's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+17 Partisan Voter Index and consistent performance in prior cycles. The open seat following incumbent Chuy García's retirement has not shifted the underlying dynamics, as Democratic nominee Patty Garcia advanced unopposed in the March primary after serving as the incumbent's chief of staff. Republican nominee Lupe Castillo also faced no primary opposition. Cook Political Report rates the general election Solid Democratic, aligning with the district's southwest Chicago and suburban voter base. Trader consensus at 95 percent for Democrats accounts for these structural factors, though a major scandal, health event, or unexpected national shift could still alter the outcome before the November 3 general election.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoIL-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
IL-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$51,474 Vol.
$51,474 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
95%
Partido Republicano
3%
$51,474 Vol.
$51,474 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
$36,829 Vol.
95%
Partido Republicano
$14,645 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Illinois's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+17 Partisan Voter Index and consistent performance in prior cycles. The open seat following incumbent Chuy García's retirement has not shifted the underlying dynamics, as Democratic nominee Patty Garcia advanced unopposed in the March primary after serving as the incumbent's chief of staff. Republican nominee Lupe Castillo also faced no primary opposition. Cook Political Report rates the general election Solid Democratic, aligning with the district's southwest Chicago and suburban voter base. Trader consensus at 95 percent for Democrats accounts for these structural factors, though a major scandal, health event, or unexpected national shift could still alter the outcome before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volumen
$51,474Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Illinois's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+17 Partisan Voter Index and consistent performance in prior cycles. The open seat following incumbent Chuy García's retirement has not shifted the underlying dynamics, as Democratic nominee Patty Garcia advanced unopposed in the March primary after serving as the incumbent's chief of staff. Republican nominee Lupe Castillo also faced no primary opposition. Cook Political Report rates the general election Solid Democratic, aligning with the district's southwest Chicago and suburban voter base. Trader consensus at 95 percent for Democrats accounts for these structural factors, though a major scandal, health event, or unexpected national shift could still alter the outcome before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$51,474Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Illinois's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+17 Partisan Voter Index and consistent performance in prior cycles. The open seat following incumbent Chuy García's retirement has not shifted the underlying dynamics, as Democratic nominee Patty Garcia advanced unopposed in the March primary after serving as the incumbent's chief of staff. Republican nominee Lupe Castillo also faced no primary opposition. Cook Political Report rates the general election Solid Democratic, aligning with the district's southwest Chicago and suburban voter base. Trader consensus at 95 percent for Democrats accounts for these structural factors, though a major scandal, health event, or unexpected national shift could still alter the outcome before the November 3 general election.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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