Jon Bonck secured the Republican nomination for Texas's 38th Congressional District after winning a May 2026 primary runoff with 65 percent of the vote, backed by endorsements from President Donald Trump and Senator Ted Cruz. The open seat, vacated by incumbent Wesley Hunt's Senate bid, sits in a heavily Republican area of northwest Harris County rated Solid or Safe Republican by multiple forecasters. Bonck's campaign has raised over $1.5 million compared to Democrat Melissa McDonough's roughly $48,000, reflecting stronger party infrastructure and donor support in a district with a substantial Republican partisan advantage. McDonough won her March primary outright but faces structural headwinds. Late developments such as major scandals, health events, or national political shifts remain the primary variables that could alter the current trader consensus favoring Bonck.