Trader consensus slightly favors Democrats at 58.5% implied probability to win Nevada's 2026 gubernatorial election over Republicans at 42.5%, despite recent polls showing a statistical dead heat between incumbent Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo and Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford, the parties' likely nominees. The latest Noble Predictive Insights survey (March 27) has Lombardo edging Ford 39%-38% among registered voters, with 23% undecided or other—echoing prior tight results like Emerson's November tie at 41%-41%—while aggregates like RealClearPolitics give Lombardo a narrow +1.5% lead. High undecideds among independents, Hispanics, women, and Washoe County voters, amid pocketbook concerns like housing affordability and inflation, fuel uncertainty in this swing-state battleground with historically razor-thin margins, as seen in Lombardo's 2022 win by 1.5 points. Democratic primaries on June 9 could solidify Ford's path, potentially shifting dynamics.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado$19,912 Vol.
$19,912 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Demócrata
59%
Republicano
43%
$19,912 Vol.
$19,912 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Demócrata
$4,765 Vol.
59%
Republicano
$15,147 Vol.
43%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nevada gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus slightly favors Democrats at 58.5% implied probability to win Nevada's 2026 gubernatorial election over Republicans at 42.5%, despite recent polls showing a statistical dead heat between incumbent Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo and Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford, the parties' likely nominees. The latest Noble Predictive Insights survey (March 27) has Lombardo edging Ford 39%-38% among registered voters, with 23% undecided or other—echoing prior tight results like Emerson's November tie at 41%-41%—while aggregates like RealClearPolitics give Lombardo a narrow +1.5% lead. High undecideds among independents, Hispanics, women, and Washoe County voters, amid pocketbook concerns like housing affordability and inflation, fuel uncertainty in this swing-state battleground with historically razor-thin margins, as seen in Lombardo's 2022 win by 1.5 points. Democratic primaries on June 9 could solidify Ford's path, potentially shifting dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nevada gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Mercado abierto: Oct 13, 2025, 6:29 PM ET
Volumen
$19,912Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 13, 2025, 6:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nevada gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus slightly favors Democrats at 58.5% implied probability to win Nevada's 2026 gubernatorial election over Republicans at 42.5%, despite recent polls showing a statistical dead heat between incumbent Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo and Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford, the parties' likely nominees. The latest Noble Predictive Insights survey (March 27) has Lombardo edging Ford 39%-38% among registered voters, with 23% undecided or other—echoing prior tight results like Emerson's November tie at 41%-41%—while aggregates like RealClearPolitics give Lombardo a narrow +1.5% lead. High undecideds among independents, Hispanics, women, and Washoe County voters, amid pocketbook concerns like housing affordability and inflation, fuel uncertainty in this swing-state battleground with historically razor-thin margins, as seen in Lombardo's 2022 win by 1.5 points. Democratic primaries on June 9 could solidify Ford's path, potentially shifting dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nevada gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volumen
$19,912Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 13, 2025, 6:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus slightly favors Democrats at 58.5% implied probability to win Nevada's 2026 gubernatorial election over Republicans at 42.5%, despite recent polls showing a statistical dead heat between incumbent Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo and Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford, the parties' likely nominees. The latest Noble Predictive Insights survey (March 27) has Lombardo edging Ford 39%-38% among registered voters, with 23% undecided or other—echoing prior tight results like Emerson's November tie at 41%-41%—while aggregates like RealClearPolitics give Lombardo a narrow +1.5% lead. High undecideds among independents, Hispanics, women, and Washoe County voters, amid pocketbook concerns like housing affordability and inflation, fuel uncertainty in this swing-state battleground with historically razor-thin margins, as seen in Lombardo's 2022 win by 1.5 points. Democratic primaries on June 9 could solidify Ford's path, potentially shifting dynamics.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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