Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign has conditioned his participation in first-round presidential debates on Lula’s presence, seeking a direct matchup with his primary rival while limiting exposure to attacks from other right-wing candidates such as Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema. This approach led him to skip the August 23 Band debate after Lula declined over inclusion of smaller-party contenders. Lula has signaled intent to appear in only one first-round debate, likely the Globo event around October 1, while Flávio evaluates remaining opportunities case by case ahead of the October 4 vote. Traders therefore assign a 69.5% implied probability that he will not participate in any debate before the first round, reflecting the narrow window and mutual strategic constraints.