Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects 100% implied probability for "No" as the March 31, 2026, deadline expired without Congress passing any tariff-imposing legislation, amid intense partisan gridlock in the narrowly divided 119th Congress. The Supreme Court's February 20 ruling invalidating President Trump's prior International Emergency Economic Powers Act tariffs shifted focus to rebate measures like H.R.7865—the American Consumer Tariff Rebate Act, introduced March 11 and advanced in the House—but no bills authorizing new duties gained traction before adjournment. Trump's pivot to Section 122 executive tariffs underscored congressional inaction. Tail risks remain negligible post-deadline, with resolution hinging solely on unambiguous legislative records showing zero passage.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$26,011 Vol.
$26,011 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
$26,011 Vol.
$26,011 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate pass the same bill, measure, or resolution that explicitly seeks to create a tariff on any country or set of countries for any goods by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A bill, measure or resolution will be considered to “seek to create a tariff” if it explicitly calls for or orders the imposition of any import tax or duty on any category of goods from any country or region. Category-specific tariffs, general tariffs on countries, or blanket global tariffs will all qualify. The delegation of tariff powers to other government authorities (e.g. the President) without calling for specific tariffs to be imposed, trade restrictions which do not impose an import tax or duty, or tariffs imposed under existing executive authority without new passage by both chambers of Congress will not qualify.
A measure amended by either chamber will only qualify if the amended version is subsequently passed by both chambers in identical form.
The resolution source will be official congressional voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects 100% implied probability for "No" as the March 31, 2026, deadline expired without Congress passing any tariff-imposing legislation, amid intense partisan gridlock in the narrowly divided 119th Congress. The Supreme Court's February 20 ruling invalidating President Trump's prior International Emergency Economic Powers Act tariffs shifted focus to rebate measures like H.R.7865—the American Consumer Tariff Rebate Act, introduced March 11 and advanced in the House—but no bills authorizing new duties gained traction before adjournment. Trump's pivot to Section 122 executive tariffs underscored congressional inaction. Tail risks remain negligible post-deadline, with resolution hinging solely on unambiguous legislative records showing zero passage.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate pass the same bill, measure, or resolution that explicitly seeks to create a tariff on any country or set of countries for any goods by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A bill, measure or resolution will be considered to “seek to create a tariff” if it explicitly calls for or orders the imposition of any import tax or duty on any category of goods from any country or region. Category-specific tariffs, general tariffs on countries, or blanket global tariffs will all qualify. The delegation of tariff powers to other government authorities (e.g. the President) without calling for specific tariffs to be imposed, trade restrictions which do not impose an import tax or duty, or tariffs imposed under existing executive authority without new passage by both chambers of Congress will not qualify.
A measure amended by either chamber will only qualify if the amended version is subsequently passed by both chambers in identical form.
The resolution source will be official congressional voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
A bill, measure or resolution will be considered to “seek to create a tariff” if it explicitly calls for or orders the imposition of any import tax or duty on any category of goods from any country or region. Category-specific tariffs, general tariffs on countries, or blanket global tariffs will all qualify. The delegation of tariff powers to other government authorities (e.g. the President) without calling for specific tariffs to be imposed, trade restrictions which do not impose an import tax or duty, or tariffs imposed under existing executive authority without new passage by both chambers of Congress will not qualify.
A measure amended by either chamber will only qualify if the amended version is subsequently passed by both chambers in identical form.
The resolution source will be official congressional voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Feb 20, 2026, 1:46 PM ET
Volume
$26,011End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 20, 2026, 1:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate pass the same bill, measure, or resolution that explicitly seeks to create a tariff on any country or set of countries for any goods by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A bill, measure or resolution will be considered to “seek to create a tariff” if it explicitly calls for or orders the imposition of any import tax or duty on any category of goods from any country or region. Category-specific tariffs, general tariffs on countries, or blanket global tariffs will all qualify. The delegation of tariff powers to other government authorities (e.g. the President) without calling for specific tariffs to be imposed, trade restrictions which do not impose an import tax or duty, or tariffs imposed under existing executive authority without new passage by both chambers of Congress will not qualify.
A measure amended by either chamber will only qualify if the amended version is subsequently passed by both chambers in identical form.
The resolution source will be official congressional voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects 100% implied probability for "No" as the March 31, 2026, deadline expired without Congress passing any tariff-imposing legislation, amid intense partisan gridlock in the narrowly divided 119th Congress. The Supreme Court's February 20 ruling invalidating President Trump's prior International Emergency Economic Powers Act tariffs shifted focus to rebate measures like H.R.7865—the American Consumer Tariff Rebate Act, introduced March 11 and advanced in the House—but no bills authorizing new duties gained traction before adjournment. Trump's pivot to Section 122 executive tariffs underscored congressional inaction. Tail risks remain negligible post-deadline, with resolution hinging solely on unambiguous legislative records showing zero passage.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate pass the same bill, measure, or resolution that explicitly seeks to create a tariff on any country or set of countries for any goods by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A bill, measure or resolution will be considered to “seek to create a tariff” if it explicitly calls for or orders the imposition of any import tax or duty on any category of goods from any country or region. Category-specific tariffs, general tariffs on countries, or blanket global tariffs will all qualify. The delegation of tariff powers to other government authorities (e.g. the President) without calling for specific tariffs to be imposed, trade restrictions which do not impose an import tax or duty, or tariffs imposed under existing executive authority without new passage by both chambers of Congress will not qualify.
A measure amended by either chamber will only qualify if the amended version is subsequently passed by both chambers in identical form.
The resolution source will be official congressional voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
A bill, measure or resolution will be considered to “seek to create a tariff” if it explicitly calls for or orders the imposition of any import tax or duty on any category of goods from any country or region. Category-specific tariffs, general tariffs on countries, or blanket global tariffs will all qualify. The delegation of tariff powers to other government authorities (e.g. the President) without calling for specific tariffs to be imposed, trade restrictions which do not impose an import tax or duty, or tariffs imposed under existing executive authority without new passage by both chambers of Congress will not qualify.
A measure amended by either chamber will only qualify if the amended version is subsequently passed by both chambers in identical form.
The resolution source will be official congressional voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$26,011End Date
Mar 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 20, 2026, 1:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects 100% implied probability for "No" as the March 31, 2026, deadline expired without Congress passing any tariff-imposing legislation, amid intense partisan gridlock in the narrowly divided 119th Congress. The Supreme Court's February 20 ruling invalidating President Trump's prior International Emergency Economic Powers Act tariffs shifted focus to rebate measures like H.R.7865—the American Consumer Tariff Rebate Act, introduced March 11 and advanced in the House—but no bills authorizing new duties gained traction before adjournment. Trump's pivot to Section 122 executive tariffs underscored congressional inaction. Tail risks remain negligible post-deadline, with resolution hinging solely on unambiguous legislative records showing zero passage.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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