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Politics·Congress

Who will vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair?

Market icon
Politics·Congress

Who will vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair?

NEW
Jun 30, 2026
Polymarket

$5,033 Vol.

Polymarket

Thom Tillis

$0 Vol.

90%

Elizabeth Warren

$0 Vol.

7%

Bernie Sanders

$3,072 Vol.

2%

Chuck Schumer

$0 Vol.

15%

Lisa Murkowski

$90 Vol.

70%

Kevin Cramer

$0 Vol.

92%

John Kennedy

$1,871 Vol.

90%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed Senator votes “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Kevin Warsh to be Chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The vote refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions. If the nomination passes unanimously or without individual voting (e.g. a voice vote), this market will resolve to “Yes”. If the nomination is rejected unanimously or without individual voting, this market will resolve to “No”. If no qualifying vote is held by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No”. The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.President Trump formally nominated former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair on March 4, 2026, transmitting the nomination to the Senate to succeed Jerome Powell, whose term expires May 15. Progress remains stalled due to a hold by Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC), who is blocking Fed nominations pending resolution of a DOJ investigation into Powell. No confirmation hearing has been scheduled in the Senate Banking Committee, heightening uncertainty amid geopolitical tensions like the Iran conflict influencing Fed policy expectations. Warsh garners White House backing and praise from Wall Street leaders, but faces certain Democratic opposition, including from Sen. Elizabeth Warren; a simple majority Senate vote is required for confirmation.

President Trump formally nominated former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair on March 4, 2026, transmitting the nomination to the Senate to succeed Jerome Powell, whose term expires May 15. Progress remains stalled due to a hold by Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC), who is blocking Fed nominations pending resolution of a DOJ investigation into Powell. No confirmation hearing has been scheduled in the Senate Banking Committee, heightening uncertainty amid geopolitical tensions like the Iran conflict influencing Fed policy expectations. Warsh garners White House backing and praise from Wall Street leaders, but faces certain Democratic opposition, including from Sen. Elizabeth Warren; a simple majority Senate vote is required for confirmation.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed Senator votes “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Kevin Warsh to be Chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The vote refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions. If the nomination passes unanimously or without individual voting (e.g. a voice vote), this market will resolve to “Yes”. If the nomination is rejected unanimously or without individual voting, this market will resolve to “No”. If no qualifying vote is held by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No”. The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.President Trump formally nominated former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair on March 4, 2026, transmitting the nomination to the Senate to succeed Jerome Powell, whose term expires May 15. Progress remains stalled due to a hold by Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC), who is blocking Fed nominations pending resolution of a DOJ investigation into Powell. No confirmation hearing has been scheduled in the Senate Banking Committee, heightening uncertainty amid geopolitical tensions like the Iran conflict influencing Fed policy expectations. Warsh garners White House backing and praise from Wall Street leaders, but faces certain Democratic opposition, including from Sen. Elizabeth Warren; a simple majority Senate vote is required for confirmation.

President Trump formally nominated former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair on March 4, 2026, transmitting the nomination to the Senate to succeed Jerome Powell, whose term expires May 15. Progress remains stalled due to a hold by Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC), who is blocking Fed nominations pending resolution of a DOJ investigation into Powell. No confirmation hearing has been scheduled in the Senate Banking Committee, heightening uncertainty amid geopolitical tensions like the Iran conflict influencing Fed policy expectations. Warsh garners White House backing and praise from Wall Street leaders, but faces certain Democratic opposition, including from Sen. Elizabeth Warren; a simple majority Senate vote is required for confirmation.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Who will vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Kevin Cramer" at 92%, followed by "Thom Tillis" at 90%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 92¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 92% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Who will vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jan 30, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Who will vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Who will vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair?" is "Kevin Cramer" at 92%, meaning the market assigns a 92% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Thom Tillis" at 90%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Who will vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.