Market icon
Politics·Trump

Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?

Market icon
Politics·Trump

Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?

3% chance
Polymarket

$63,978 Vol.

3% chance
Polymarket

$63,978 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve is withdrawn by May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Formal withdrawal of Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve is required for a “Yes” resolution. Rejection of Warsh’s nomination by the United States Senate will not count. If Kevin Warsh is formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve by the Senate, this market will immediately resolve to “No”. If Warsh's nomination remains pending in the Senate through May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Kevin Warsh, the Trump Administration, and the United States Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. President-elect Donald Trump has not formally nominated former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair, whose term ends May 15, 2026, driving trader consensus to 96.7% on "No" for withdrawal by May 15. Recent cabinet announcements, including Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretary, sidelined Warsh amid reports of Trump interviewing alternatives like Judy Shelton or Kevin Hassett, with no primary source confirmation of Warsh's interest or selection. Absent a sudden nomination announcement—requiring Senate Judiciary Committee review and full Senate confirmation—pathways to withdrawal remain implausible within the timeline. Potential disruptors include late-breaking personal decisions by Warsh, emerging controversies, or shifts in Trump's economic team priorities, though procedural delays and political negotiations make these low-probability.

President-elect Donald Trump has not formally nominated former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair, whose term ends May 15, 2026, driving trader consensus to 96.7% on "No" for withdrawal by May 15. Recent cabinet announcements, including Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretary, sidelined Warsh amid reports of Trump interviewing alternatives like Judy Shelton or Kevin Hassett, with no primary source confirmation of Warsh's interest or selection. Absent a sudden nomination announcement—requiring Senate Judiciary Committee review and full Senate confirmation—pathways to withdrawal remain implausible within the timeline. Potential disruptors include late-breaking personal decisions by Warsh, emerging controversies, or shifts in Trump's economic team priorities, though procedural delays and political negotiations make these low-probability.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve is withdrawn by May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Formal withdrawal of Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve is required for a “Yes” resolution. Rejection of Warsh’s nomination by the United States Senate will not count. If Kevin Warsh is formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve by the Senate, this market will immediately resolve to “No”. If Warsh's nomination remains pending in the Senate through May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Kevin Warsh, the Trump Administration, and the United States Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. President-elect Donald Trump has not formally nominated former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair, whose term ends May 15, 2026, driving trader consensus to 96.7% on "No" for withdrawal by May 15. Recent cabinet announcements, including Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretary, sidelined Warsh amid reports of Trump interviewing alternatives like Judy Shelton or Kevin Hassett, with no primary source confirmation of Warsh's interest or selection. Absent a sudden nomination announcement—requiring Senate Judiciary Committee review and full Senate confirmation—pathways to withdrawal remain implausible within the timeline. Potential disruptors include late-breaking personal decisions by Warsh, emerging controversies, or shifts in Trump's economic team priorities, though procedural delays and political negotiations make these low-probability.

President-elect Donald Trump has not formally nominated former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair, whose term ends May 15, 2026, driving trader consensus to 96.7% on "No" for withdrawal by May 15. Recent cabinet announcements, including Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretary, sidelined Warsh amid reports of Trump interviewing alternatives like Judy Shelton or Kevin Hassett, with no primary source confirmation of Warsh's interest or selection. Absent a sudden nomination announcement—requiring Senate Judiciary Committee review and full Senate confirmation—pathways to withdrawal remain implausible within the timeline. Potential disruptors include late-breaking personal decisions by Warsh, emerging controversies, or shifts in Trump's economic team priorities, though procedural delays and political negotiations make these low-probability.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

Related

Market icon

Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?

51%
Market icon

Will Kevin Cramer vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve?

92%
Market icon

Will there be a US x Iran ceasefire before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair?

54%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 3% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 3¢, the market collectively assigns a 3% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?" has generated $64K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 5, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?" is 3% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 3% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.