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Politics·Trump

Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?

Market icon
Politics·Trump

Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?

3% chance
Polymarket

$63,985 Vol.

3% chance
Polymarket

$63,985 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve is withdrawn by May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Formal withdrawal of Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve is required for a “Yes” resolution. Rejection of Warsh’s nomination by the United States Senate will not count. If Kevin Warsh is formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve by the Senate, this market will immediately resolve to “No”. If Warsh's nomination remains pending in the Senate through May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Kevin Warsh, the Trump Administration, and the United States Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trump's formal nomination of former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair on March 4, 2026, to succeed Jerome Powell after his May 15 term ends, remains firmly in place despite recent confirmation hurdles. Senate Banking Committee advancement is stalled by Republican Sen. Thom Tillis's hold, pending DOJ resolution of a probe into Powell over a $2.5 billion Fed renovation, compounded by Iran war escalation pressures. With no White House signals of retreat, no alternative nominees floated, and Warsh actively meeting senators, traders reflect near-certain consensus at 97% "No" on withdrawal by the deadline. Realistic shifts could stem from a major scandal, bipartisan opposition surge, or Trump administration pivot amid confirmation delays.

Trump's formal nomination of former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair on March 4, 2026, to succeed Jerome Powell after his May 15 term ends, remains firmly in place despite recent confirmation hurdles. Senate Banking Committee advancement is stalled by Republican Sen. Thom Tillis's hold, pending DOJ resolution of a probe into Powell over a $2.5 billion Fed renovation, compounded by Iran war escalation pressures. With no White House signals of retreat, no alternative nominees floated, and Warsh actively meeting senators, traders reflect near-certain consensus at 97% "No" on withdrawal by the deadline. Realistic shifts could stem from a major scandal, bipartisan opposition surge, or Trump administration pivot amid confirmation delays.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve is withdrawn by May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Formal withdrawal of Warsh’s nomination as Chair of the Federal Reserve is required for a “Yes” resolution. Rejection of Warsh’s nomination by the United States Senate will not count. If Kevin Warsh is formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve by the Senate, this market will immediately resolve to “No”. If Warsh's nomination remains pending in the Senate through May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Kevin Warsh, the Trump Administration, and the United States Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trump's formal nomination of former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair on March 4, 2026, to succeed Jerome Powell after his May 15 term ends, remains firmly in place despite recent confirmation hurdles. Senate Banking Committee advancement is stalled by Republican Sen. Thom Tillis's hold, pending DOJ resolution of a probe into Powell over a $2.5 billion Fed renovation, compounded by Iran war escalation pressures. With no White House signals of retreat, no alternative nominees floated, and Warsh actively meeting senators, traders reflect near-certain consensus at 97% "No" on withdrawal by the deadline. Realistic shifts could stem from a major scandal, bipartisan opposition surge, or Trump administration pivot amid confirmation delays.

Trump's formal nomination of former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair on March 4, 2026, to succeed Jerome Powell after his May 15 term ends, remains firmly in place despite recent confirmation hurdles. Senate Banking Committee advancement is stalled by Republican Sen. Thom Tillis's hold, pending DOJ resolution of a probe into Powell over a $2.5 billion Fed renovation, compounded by Iran war escalation pressures. With no White House signals of retreat, no alternative nominees floated, and Warsh actively meeting senators, traders reflect near-certain consensus at 97% "No" on withdrawal by the deadline. Realistic shifts could stem from a major scandal, bipartisan opposition surge, or Trump administration pivot amid confirmation delays.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 3% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 3¢, the market collectively assigns a 3% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?" has generated $64K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 5, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?" is 3% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 3% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.