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Finance·Jerome Powell

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go by March 31?

Market icon
Finance·Jerome Powell

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go by March 31?

$232,088 Vol.

Mar 31, 2026
Polymarket

$232,088 Vol.

Polymarket

4.5%

$57,588 Vol.

20%

4.6%

$22,506 Vol.

6%

4.8%

$17,436 Vol.

1%

5.0%

$20,598 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and March 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the Treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield, trading around 4.44% as of March 28, recently spiked to a 2026 high of 4.48% on March 27 amid three consecutive weak government debt auctions and resurgent inflation fears tied to rising oil prices and labor costs. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects caution, with implied probabilities favoring limited upside by March 31 due to the brief timeframe and absence of major catalysts like FOMC meetings. Today's potential release of February PCE inflation data could sway sentiment, alongside end-of-quarter rebalancing flows. Yields remain elevated versus the long-term average of 4.25%, pricing persistent monetary policy tightening risks amid geopolitical tensions over Iran.

The 10-year Treasury yield, trading around 4.44% as of March 28, recently spiked to a 2026 high of 4.48% on March 27 amid three consecutive weak government debt auctions and resurgent inflation fears tied to rising oil prices and labor costs. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects caution, with implied probabilities favoring limited upside by March 31 due to the brief timeframe and absence of major catalysts like FOMC meetings. Today's potential release of February PCE inflation data could sway sentiment, alongside end-of-quarter rebalancing flows. Yields remain elevated versus the long-term average of 4.25%, pricing persistent monetary policy tightening risks amid geopolitical tensions over Iran.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and March 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the Treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield, trading around 4.44% as of March 28, recently spiked to a 2026 high of 4.48% on March 27 amid three consecutive weak government debt auctions and resurgent inflation fears tied to rising oil prices and labor costs. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects caution, with implied probabilities favoring limited upside by March 31 due to the brief timeframe and absence of major catalysts like FOMC meetings. Today's potential release of February PCE inflation data could sway sentiment, alongside end-of-quarter rebalancing flows. Yields remain elevated versus the long-term average of 4.25%, pricing persistent monetary policy tightening risks amid geopolitical tensions over Iran.

The 10-year Treasury yield, trading around 4.44% as of March 28, recently spiked to a 2026 high of 4.48% on March 27 amid three consecutive weak government debt auctions and resurgent inflation fears tied to rising oil prices and labor costs. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects caution, with implied probabilities favoring limited upside by March 31 due to the brief timeframe and absence of major catalysts like FOMC meetings. Today's potential release of February PCE inflation data could sway sentiment, alongside end-of-quarter rebalancing flows. Yields remain elevated versus the long-term average of 4.25%, pricing persistent monetary policy tightening risks amid geopolitical tensions over Iran.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"How high will 10-year Treasury yield go by March 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "4.3%" at 100%, followed by "4.4%" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "How high will 10-year Treasury yield go by March 31?" has generated $232.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 9, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "How high will 10-year Treasury yield go by March 31?," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How high will 10-year Treasury yield go by March 31?" is "4.3%" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "4.4%" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How high will 10-year Treasury yield go by March 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.