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Finance·Jerome Powell

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go by March 31?

Market icon
Finance·Jerome Powell

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go by March 31?

$232,126 Vol.

Mar 31, 2026
Polymarket

$232,126 Vol.

Polymarket

4.5%

$57,588 Vol.

20%

4.6%

$22,506 Vol.

6%

4.8%

$17,436 Vol.

1%

5.0%

$20,636 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and March 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the Treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to 4.44% as of March 27, 2026, up from 4.41% the prior session and reflecting trader consensus on persistent inflationary pressures from surging oil prices amid the Iran conflict and geopolitical tensions. The Federal Reserve held its fed funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% in its March 18 meeting, citing balanced risks despite softening labor market data like weaker job growth and elevated core PCE inflation forecasts at 2.7% for 2026. Yields touched 4.48% last week before retreating, driven by hotter-than-expected inflation prints offsetting employment weakness. With quarter-end rebalancing on March 31 and no major data releases imminent, short-term volatility hinges on oil dynamics and risk appetite, pricing in limited upside beyond current levels absent further escalation.

The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to 4.44% as of March 27, 2026, up from 4.41% the prior session and reflecting trader consensus on persistent inflationary pressures from surging oil prices amid the Iran conflict and geopolitical tensions. The Federal Reserve held its fed funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% in its March 18 meeting, citing balanced risks despite softening labor market data like weaker job growth and elevated core PCE inflation forecasts at 2.7% for 2026. Yields touched 4.48% last week before retreating, driven by hotter-than-expected inflation prints offsetting employment weakness. With quarter-end rebalancing on March 31 and no major data releases imminent, short-term volatility hinges on oil dynamics and risk appetite, pricing in limited upside beyond current levels absent further escalation.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and March 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the Treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to 4.44% as of March 27, 2026, up from 4.41% the prior session and reflecting trader consensus on persistent inflationary pressures from surging oil prices amid the Iran conflict and geopolitical tensions. The Federal Reserve held its fed funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% in its March 18 meeting, citing balanced risks despite softening labor market data like weaker job growth and elevated core PCE inflation forecasts at 2.7% for 2026. Yields touched 4.48% last week before retreating, driven by hotter-than-expected inflation prints offsetting employment weakness. With quarter-end rebalancing on March 31 and no major data releases imminent, short-term volatility hinges on oil dynamics and risk appetite, pricing in limited upside beyond current levels absent further escalation.

The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to 4.44% as of March 27, 2026, up from 4.41% the prior session and reflecting trader consensus on persistent inflationary pressures from surging oil prices amid the Iran conflict and geopolitical tensions. The Federal Reserve held its fed funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% in its March 18 meeting, citing balanced risks despite softening labor market data like weaker job growth and elevated core PCE inflation forecasts at 2.7% for 2026. Yields touched 4.48% last week before retreating, driven by hotter-than-expected inflation prints offsetting employment weakness. With quarter-end rebalancing on March 31 and no major data releases imminent, short-term volatility hinges on oil dynamics and risk appetite, pricing in limited upside beyond current levels absent further escalation.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"How high will 10-year Treasury yield go by March 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "4.3%" at 100%, followed by "4.4%" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "How high will 10-year Treasury yield go by March 31?" has generated $232.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 9, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "How high will 10-year Treasury yield go by March 31?," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How high will 10-year Treasury yield go by March 31?" is "4.3%" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "4.4%" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How high will 10-year Treasury yield go by March 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.