Jerome Powell’s term as a Federal Reserve governor runs through January 2028, creating the structural barrier to near-term departure even after Kevin Warsh replaced him as chair in May 2026. Recent Office of Inspector General findings on cost overruns in the headquarters renovation project—now exceeding $2 billion—have intensified White House criticism and calls for resignation, yet the report cited no criminal conduct and governors enjoy statutory protection removable only for cause. Trader consensus on related Polymarket contracts, with “no” outcomes trading near 82 cents, reflects Powell’s repeated statements that he will remain to safeguard institutional independence amid ongoing political pressure. Key near-term catalysts include any administration legal filings or congressional actions that could test removal thresholds before year-end.