The Fed’s unanimous September 2026 rate hike to the 3.75–4.00% target range, paired with updated SEP projections showing a median federal funds rate of 4.1% through 2027, underpins the 96.6% market-implied probability against an emergency cut before year-end 2026. Elevated core PCE inflation near 3.4%, resilient GDP growth at a projected 2.3% for 2026, and a low 4.1% unemployment rate have reinforced the FOMC’s hawkish stance, with futures pricing in further hikes rather than accommodation. This skin-in-the-game consensus reflects traders’ assessment that scheduled policy remains focused on returning inflation to target amid solid economic momentum. Tail-risk scenarios capable of shifting odds include a sharp escalation in Middle East energy disruptions triggering a severe growth shock or an abrupt financial-stability event forcing an unscheduled intermeeting response.