Strong economic resilience and the absence of acute financial stress underpin the 97.5% market-implied probability against a Federal Reserve emergency rate cut before 2027. With the fed funds target range at 3.75–4.00% following the September 2026 hike, inflation near 3.7% PCE, and unemployment around 4.1%, the FOMC has managed policy through scheduled meetings amid solid GDP growth, robust capital investment, and anchored expectations. Traders price this steady backdrop as favoring measured adjustments over inter-meeting action. Tail-risk scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden banking-sector crisis, sharp equity-market collapse, or severe geopolitical escalation triggering liquidity strains that force an unscheduled easing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated3% chance
$237,633 Vol.
$237,633 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
3% chance
$237,633 Vol.
$237,633 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.Strong economic resilience and the absence of acute financial stress underpin the 97.5% market-implied probability against a Federal Reserve emergency rate cut before 2027. With the fed funds target range at 3.75–4.00% following the September 2026 hike, inflation near 3.7% PCE, and unemployment around 4.1%, the FOMC has managed policy through scheduled meetings amid solid GDP growth, robust capital investment, and anchored expectations. Traders price this steady backdrop as favoring measured adjustments over inter-meeting action. Tail-risk scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden banking-sector crisis, sharp equity-market collapse, or severe geopolitical escalation triggering liquidity strains that force an unscheduled easing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
Market Opened: Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ET
Volume
$237,633End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070be91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.Strong economic resilience and the absence of acute financial stress underpin the 97.5% market-implied probability against a Federal Reserve emergency rate cut before 2027. With the fed funds target range at 3.75–4.00% following the September 2026 hike, inflation near 3.7% PCE, and unemployment around 4.1%, the FOMC has managed policy through scheduled meetings amid solid GDP growth, robust capital investment, and anchored expectations. Traders price this steady backdrop as favoring measured adjustments over inter-meeting action. Tail-risk scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden banking-sector crisis, sharp equity-market collapse, or severe geopolitical escalation triggering liquidity strains that force an unscheduled easing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
Volume
$0End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070be91...Strong economic resilience and the absence of acute financial stress underpin the 97.5% market-implied probability against a Federal Reserve emergency rate cut before 2027. With the fed funds target range at 3.75–4.00% following the September 2026 hike, inflation near 3.7% PCE, and unemployment around 4.1%, the FOMC has managed policy through scheduled meetings amid solid GDP growth, robust capital investment, and anchored expectations. Traders price this steady backdrop as favoring measured adjustments over inter-meeting action. Tail-risk scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden banking-sector crisis, sharp equity-market collapse, or severe geopolitical escalation triggering liquidity strains that force an unscheduled easing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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