The Fed's recent 25-basis-point hike to a 3.75-4.00% target range on September 16, 2026, alongside hawkish communications from Chair Warsh and projections for further tightening, underpins the 97.7% market-implied probability against an emergency rate cut before 2027. Solid GDP growth near 2.3%, a balanced labor market with unemployment around 4.1%, and elevated core PCE inflation at 3.4% signal no acute crisis warranting inter-meeting action, consistent with historical precedents limited to systemic shocks. Traders' skin-in-the-game consensus reflects this data-driven path, with the FOMC prioritizing inflation control over near-term easing. Tail risks such as a sharp escalation in geopolitical conflicts triggering a severe financial market dislocation or abrupt recession could still prompt an unscheduled move.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated2% chance
$237,633 Vol.
$237,633 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
2% chance
$237,633 Vol.
$237,633 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.The Fed's recent 25-basis-point hike to a 3.75-4.00% target range on September 16, 2026, alongside hawkish communications from Chair Warsh and projections for further tightening, underpins the 97.7% market-implied probability against an emergency rate cut before 2027. Solid GDP growth near 2.3%, a balanced labor market with unemployment around 4.1%, and elevated core PCE inflation at 3.4% signal no acute crisis warranting inter-meeting action, consistent with historical precedents limited to systemic shocks. Traders' skin-in-the-game consensus reflects this data-driven path, with the FOMC prioritizing inflation control over near-term easing. Tail risks such as a sharp escalation in geopolitical conflicts triggering a severe financial market dislocation or abrupt recession could still prompt an unscheduled move.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
Market Opened: Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ET
Volume
$237,633End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070be91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.The Fed's recent 25-basis-point hike to a 3.75-4.00% target range on September 16, 2026, alongside hawkish communications from Chair Warsh and projections for further tightening, underpins the 97.7% market-implied probability against an emergency rate cut before 2027. Solid GDP growth near 2.3%, a balanced labor market with unemployment around 4.1%, and elevated core PCE inflation at 3.4% signal no acute crisis warranting inter-meeting action, consistent with historical precedents limited to systemic shocks. Traders' skin-in-the-game consensus reflects this data-driven path, with the FOMC prioritizing inflation control over near-term easing. Tail risks such as a sharp escalation in geopolitical conflicts triggering a severe financial market dislocation or abrupt recession could still prompt an unscheduled move.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
Volume
$0End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070be91...The Fed's recent 25-basis-point hike to a 3.75-4.00% target range on September 16, 2026, alongside hawkish communications from Chair Warsh and projections for further tightening, underpins the 97.7% market-implied probability against an emergency rate cut before 2027. Solid GDP growth near 2.3%, a balanced labor market with unemployment around 4.1%, and elevated core PCE inflation at 3.4% signal no acute crisis warranting inter-meeting action, consistent with historical precedents limited to systemic shocks. Traders' skin-in-the-game consensus reflects this data-driven path, with the FOMC prioritizing inflation control over near-term easing. Tail risks such as a sharp escalation in geopolitical conflicts triggering a severe financial market dislocation or abrupt recession could still prompt an unscheduled move.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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