Resilient labor market conditions and elevated inflation have anchored the Federal Reserve’s data-dependent stance, supporting the 91% market-implied probability against an emergency rate cut before 2027. With the unemployment rate steady near 4.3% and May nonfarm payrolls adding 172,000 jobs, alongside April CPI at 3.8% year-over-year driven by energy prices, the central bank has held the federal funds target range at 3.50-3.75% through recent FOMC meetings and signaled limited scope for intermeeting easing. Market pricing reflects this baseline of stability, with futures implying no policy adjustment in 2026 and only modest cuts possible later. A sharp deterioration in employment, severe escalation in energy-driven inflation pressures, or acute financial market stress could still prompt an unscheduled move, though current indicators show few signs of such triggers.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$105,450 Vol.
$105,450 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$105,450 Vol.
$105,450 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.Resilient labor market conditions and elevated inflation have anchored the Federal Reserve’s data-dependent stance, supporting the 91% market-implied probability against an emergency rate cut before 2027. With the unemployment rate steady near 4.3% and May nonfarm payrolls adding 172,000 jobs, alongside April CPI at 3.8% year-over-year driven by energy prices, the central bank has held the federal funds target range at 3.50-3.75% through recent FOMC meetings and signaled limited scope for intermeeting easing. Market pricing reflects this baseline of stability, with futures implying no policy adjustment in 2026 and only modest cuts possible later. A sharp deterioration in employment, severe escalation in energy-driven inflation pressures, or acute financial market stress could still prompt an unscheduled move, though current indicators show few signs of such triggers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
マーケット開始日： Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ET
音量
$105,450終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.Resilient labor market conditions and elevated inflation have anchored the Federal Reserve’s data-dependent stance, supporting the 91% market-implied probability against an emergency rate cut before 2027. With the unemployment rate steady near 4.3% and May nonfarm payrolls adding 172,000 jobs, alongside April CPI at 3.8% year-over-year driven by energy prices, the central bank has held the federal funds target range at 3.50-3.75% through recent FOMC meetings and signaled limited scope for intermeeting easing. Market pricing reflects this baseline of stability, with futures implying no policy adjustment in 2026 and only modest cuts possible later. A sharp deterioration in employment, severe escalation in energy-driven inflation pressures, or acute financial market stress could still prompt an unscheduled move, though current indicators show few signs of such triggers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
音量
$105,450終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resilient labor market conditions and elevated inflation have anchored the Federal Reserve’s data-dependent stance, supporting the 91% market-implied probability against an emergency rate cut before 2027. With the unemployment rate steady near 4.3% and May nonfarm payrolls adding 172,000 jobs, alongside April CPI at 3.8% year-over-year driven by energy prices, the central bank has held the federal funds target range at 3.50-3.75% through recent FOMC meetings and signaled limited scope for intermeeting easing. Market pricing reflects this baseline of stability, with futures implying no policy adjustment in 2026 and only modest cuts possible later. A sharp deterioration in employment, severe escalation in energy-driven inflation pressures, or acute financial market stress could still prompt an unscheduled move, though current indicators show few signs of such triggers.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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