The Fed's recent September 2026 rate hike to a 3.75-4.00% target range, paired with updated projections holding the federal funds rate near 4.1% through 2027, underscores a resilient economy with 4.1% unemployment and core PCE inflation at 3.4%. This backdrop leaves little scope for an unscheduled emergency cut before year-end, as the FOMC has signaled a preference for data-dependent adjustments at regular meetings amid contained financial stresses and no acute recession signals. Historical precedent reinforces the 97.5% market-implied probability for "No," since emergency moves have occurred only during systemic shocks. Tail risks that could still shift odds include a sudden severe financial crisis or major geopolitical escalation triggering sharp market volatility.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated3% chance
$237,633 Vol.
$237,633 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
3% chance
$237,633 Vol.
$237,633 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.The Fed's recent September 2026 rate hike to a 3.75-4.00% target range, paired with updated projections holding the federal funds rate near 4.1% through 2027, underscores a resilient economy with 4.1% unemployment and core PCE inflation at 3.4%. This backdrop leaves little scope for an unscheduled emergency cut before year-end, as the FOMC has signaled a preference for data-dependent adjustments at regular meetings amid contained financial stresses and no acute recession signals. Historical precedent reinforces the 97.5% market-implied probability for "No," since emergency moves have occurred only during systemic shocks. Tail risks that could still shift odds include a sudden severe financial crisis or major geopolitical escalation triggering sharp market volatility.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
Market Opened: Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ET
Volume
$237,633End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070be91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.The Fed's recent September 2026 rate hike to a 3.75-4.00% target range, paired with updated projections holding the federal funds rate near 4.1% through 2027, underscores a resilient economy with 4.1% unemployment and core PCE inflation at 3.4%. This backdrop leaves little scope for an unscheduled emergency cut before year-end, as the FOMC has signaled a preference for data-dependent adjustments at regular meetings amid contained financial stresses and no acute recession signals. Historical precedent reinforces the 97.5% market-implied probability for "No," since emergency moves have occurred only during systemic shocks. Tail risks that could still shift odds include a sudden severe financial crisis or major geopolitical escalation triggering sharp market volatility.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
Volume
$0End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070be91...The Fed's recent September 2026 rate hike to a 3.75-4.00% target range, paired with updated projections holding the federal funds rate near 4.1% through 2027, underscores a resilient economy with 4.1% unemployment and core PCE inflation at 3.4%. This backdrop leaves little scope for an unscheduled emergency cut before year-end, as the FOMC has signaled a preference for data-dependent adjustments at regular meetings amid contained financial stresses and no acute recession signals. Historical precedent reinforces the 97.5% market-implied probability for "No," since emergency moves have occurred only during systemic shocks. Tail risks that could still shift odds include a sudden severe financial crisis or major geopolitical escalation triggering sharp market volatility.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions