The Federal Reserve’s September 2026 decision to raise the federal funds target range to 3.75–4.00 percent, alongside median projections holding the policy rate near 4.1 percent through 2027, anchors the 97.5 percent market-implied odds against an emergency cut before year-end 2026. Persistent inflation—core PCE near 3.4 percent and headline measures above 3.6 percent—combined with solid GDP growth near 2.3 percent and a stable labor market (unemployment around 4.1 percent) have shifted the FOMC toward a tightening bias to address upside inflation risks from energy prices and supply pressures. Trader consensus reflects this hawkish stance, reinforced by official guidance favoring patience over easing. A major unforeseen shock, such as a sharp recession or acute financial-market stress, remains the primary tail risk that could force an emergency response before 2027.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated3% chance
$237,633 Vol.
$237,633 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
3% chance
$237,633 Vol.
$237,633 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.The Federal Reserve’s September 2026 decision to raise the federal funds target range to 3.75–4.00 percent, alongside median projections holding the policy rate near 4.1 percent through 2027, anchors the 97.5 percent market-implied odds against an emergency cut before year-end 2026. Persistent inflation—core PCE near 3.4 percent and headline measures above 3.6 percent—combined with solid GDP growth near 2.3 percent and a stable labor market (unemployment around 4.1 percent) have shifted the FOMC toward a tightening bias to address upside inflation risks from energy prices and supply pressures. Trader consensus reflects this hawkish stance, reinforced by official guidance favoring patience over easing. A major unforeseen shock, such as a sharp recession or acute financial-market stress, remains the primary tail risk that could force an emergency response before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
Market Opened: Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ET
Volume
$237,633End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070be91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.The Federal Reserve’s September 2026 decision to raise the federal funds target range to 3.75–4.00 percent, alongside median projections holding the policy rate near 4.1 percent through 2027, anchors the 97.5 percent market-implied odds against an emergency cut before year-end 2026. Persistent inflation—core PCE near 3.4 percent and headline measures above 3.6 percent—combined with solid GDP growth near 2.3 percent and a stable labor market (unemployment around 4.1 percent) have shifted the FOMC toward a tightening bias to address upside inflation risks from energy prices and supply pressures. Trader consensus reflects this hawkish stance, reinforced by official guidance favoring patience over easing. A major unforeseen shock, such as a sharp recession or acute financial-market stress, remains the primary tail risk that could force an emergency response before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
Volume
$0End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070be91...The Federal Reserve’s September 2026 decision to raise the federal funds target range to 3.75–4.00 percent, alongside median projections holding the policy rate near 4.1 percent through 2027, anchors the 97.5 percent market-implied odds against an emergency cut before year-end 2026. Persistent inflation—core PCE near 3.4 percent and headline measures above 3.6 percent—combined with solid GDP growth near 2.3 percent and a stable labor market (unemployment around 4.1 percent) have shifted the FOMC toward a tightening bias to address upside inflation risks from energy prices and supply pressures. Trader consensus reflects this hawkish stance, reinforced by official guidance favoring patience over easing. A major unforeseen shock, such as a sharp recession or acute financial-market stress, remains the primary tail risk that could force an emergency response before 2027.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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