Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including attacks on Saudi infrastructure and constraints on flows through the Strait of Hormuz amid the Iran conflict, represent the dominant driver lifting WTI crude prices to around $91.85 per barrel as of October 11, 2026. Global inventories have drawn down sharply, with the EIA raising its Q4 2026 Brent forecast to $105 per barrel and projecting elevated prices through year-end due to persistent supply disruptions. This follows a volatile 2026 path marked by earlier declines and recent rebounds, though levels remain well below the 2008 all-time high near $145. Key upcoming catalysts include further Middle East diplomatic developments, EIA inventory reports, and OPEC+ production decisions that could tighten or ease balances. Trader sentiment reflects these supply risks offset by softer Chinese demand and resilient U.S. output.