**Ongoing Middle East supply disruptions from tanker attacks, infrastructure strikes, and constrained flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain the dominant driver of crude prices, with WTI trading near $90–92 per barrel and Brent around $105 as of mid-October 2026.** These risks have produced large global inventory draws and elevated risk premiums, lifting prices more than 50% year-over-year despite softer Chinese demand. Benchmarks sit well below the 2008 all-time high of roughly $147, with recent rallies stalling below $110–120 levels seen earlier in the year. Key near-term catalysts include OPEC+ output decisions, further developments in regional tensions, weekly inventory reports, and macroeconomic data on growth and fuel consumption that could shift the balance between persistent supply tightness and demand weakness.