Traders assign a 98.9% implied probability to "No" because the Strait of Hormuz remains severely restricted on day 228 of the crisis, with AIS-visible commercial traffic averaging roughly 5–10% of the pre-February 2026 baseline of ~85 daily transits. Ongoing Iranian attacks on tankers, IRGC demands for permits and fees, a U.S. naval presence, and war-risk insurance premiums at 15–30× normal levels continue to suppress throughput, keeping Brent crude above $100 per barrel. No diplomatic breakthrough or de-escalation has materialized in recent weeks to restore free transit. Tail-risk scenarios that could still shift odds include an abrupt ceasefire agreement or major concession on sanctions and blockades that enables rapid normalization before month-end, though current maritime data and threat assessments show little momentum toward such an outcome.