Recent tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz reached their highest weekly total since the US-Iran conflict began in February 2026, driving visible commercial transits sharply lower in early October. Kpler data showed just seven commodity vessels on one recent day—the lowest since July—with weekly crude flows through the chokepoint falling 27% to around 10.1 million barrels per day. Heightened war-risk premiums, IRGC warnings, and insurance costs continue to deter operators, though US-coordinated southern corridor movements and some dark transits provide a partial offset. These dynamics have compressed market-implied odds tightly around the 20-29 daily range for the October 5 week, as traders weigh the durability of the attack-driven slowdown against any near-term de-escalation signals ahead of potential diplomatic or military catalysts.