Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects minimal near-term risk of a Federal Reserve rate hike, with the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% following the FOMC's April 28-29 decision to hold amid elevated inflation and internal dissent on easing bias. March 2026 CPI rose 3.3% year-over-year—the highest since mid-2024—fueled by 10.9% energy gains, while core PCE hit 3.2%, pressuring policy expectations higher. Geopolitical tensions, including Iran-related disruptions, have lifted oil prices and hike odds slightly per CME FedWatch data. Key catalysts include April CPI release on May 12 and June 16-17 FOMC meeting, where hotter data could elevate market-implied hike probabilities above current lows.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$144,559 Vol.

June Meeting
1%

July Meeting
6%

September Meeting
16%

October Meeting
23%
$144,559 Vol.

June Meeting
1%

July Meeting
6%

September Meeting
16%

October Meeting
23%
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects minimal near-term risk of a Federal Reserve rate hike, with the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% following the FOMC's April 28-29 decision to hold amid elevated inflation and internal dissent on easing bias. March 2026 CPI rose 3.3% year-over-year—the highest since mid-2024—fueled by 10.9% energy gains, while core PCE hit 3.2%, pressuring policy expectations higher. Geopolitical tensions, including Iran-related disruptions, have lifted oil prices and hike odds slightly per CME FedWatch data. Key catalysts include April CPI release on May 12 and June 16-17 FOMC meeting, where hotter data could elevate market-implied hike probabilities above current lows.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated


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