Recent stronger-than-expected U.S. labor market data, including May nonfarm payrolls of 172,000 that exceeded forecasts, combined with resilient consumer spending and sticky inflation, have lifted market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike later in 2026. The effective federal funds rate stands near 3.63 percent within the 3.50-3.75 percent target range, while CME FedWatch futures assign roughly 71 percent probability to no change at the July 29 FOMC meeting and show rising chances of a 25-basis-point hike by the October or December meetings. Traders price a gradual path toward 3.8-4.0 percent by year-end amid higher-for-longer policy expectations. Key upcoming catalysts include the June CPI release, July FOMC projections, and further employment reports that could shift the balance between growth and inflation risks.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$197,365 거래량
2026.12.09
7월 회의
40%
9월 회의
33%
10월 회의
38%
$197,365 거래량
7월 회의
$2,703 거래량
40%
9월 회의
$11,044 거래량
33%
10월 회의
$7,032 거래량
38%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent stronger-than-expected U.S. labor market data, including May nonfarm payrolls of 172,000 that exceeded forecasts, combined with resilient consumer spending and sticky inflation, have lifted market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike later in 2026. The effective federal funds rate stands near 3.63 percent within the 3.50-3.75 percent target range, while CME FedWatch futures assign roughly 71 percent probability to no change at the July 29 FOMC meeting and show rising chances of a 25-basis-point hike by the October or December meetings. Traders price a gradual path toward 3.8-4.0 percent by year-end amid higher-for-longer policy expectations. Key upcoming catalysts include the June CPI release, July FOMC projections, and further employment reports that could shift the balance between growth and inflation risks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
마켓 개설일: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
거래량
$197,365종료일
2026.10.29마켓 개설일
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent stronger-than-expected U.S. labor market data, including May nonfarm payrolls of 172,000 that exceeded forecasts, combined with resilient consumer spending and sticky inflation, have lifted market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike later in 2026. The effective federal funds rate stands near 3.63 percent within the 3.50-3.75 percent target range, while CME FedWatch futures assign roughly 71 percent probability to no change at the July 29 FOMC meeting and show rising chances of a 25-basis-point hike by the October or December meetings. Traders price a gradual path toward 3.8-4.0 percent by year-end amid higher-for-longer policy expectations. Key upcoming catalysts include the June CPI release, July FOMC projections, and further employment reports that could shift the balance between growth and inflation risks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
거래량
$197,365종료일
2026.10.29마켓 개설일
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent stronger-than-expected U.S. labor market data, including May nonfarm payrolls of 172,000 that exceeded forecasts, combined with resilient consumer spending and sticky inflation, have lifted market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike later in 2026. The effective federal funds rate stands near 3.63 percent within the 3.50-3.75 percent target range, while CME FedWatch futures assign roughly 71 percent probability to no change at the July 29 FOMC meeting and show rising chances of a 25-basis-point hike by the October or December meetings. Traders price a gradual path toward 3.8-4.0 percent by year-end amid higher-for-longer policy expectations. Key upcoming catalysts include the June CPI release, July FOMC projections, and further employment reports that could shift the balance between growth and inflation risks.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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