Following the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting, where policymakers left the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% under new Chair Kevin Warsh, the updated dot plot raised the median end-2026 projection to 3.8%, signaling at least one 25-basis-point hike is now in view for some participants. Persistent inflation above the 2% target—driven by Mideast-related energy price pressures and resilient services costs—combined with robust May jobs data and a low unemployment rate, has shifted trader-implied odds toward tighter policy. CME FedWatch tool pricing now reflects roughly a two-thirds probability of at least one hike by year-end, contrasting earlier cut expectations. Key upcoming catalysts include July and September FOMC meetings alongside fresh CPI and employment releases that could alter the market-implied rate path.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว$197,365 ปริมาณ

July Meeting
38%

September Meeting
32%

October Meeting
38%
$197,365 ปริมาณ

July Meeting
38%

September Meeting
32%

October Meeting
38%
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Following the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting, where policymakers left the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% under new Chair Kevin Warsh, the updated dot plot raised the median end-2026 projection to 3.8%, signaling at least one 25-basis-point hike is now in view for some participants. Persistent inflation above the 2% target—driven by Mideast-related energy price pressures and resilient services costs—combined with robust May jobs data and a low unemployment rate, has shifted trader-implied odds toward tighter policy. CME FedWatch tool pricing now reflects roughly a two-thirds probability of at least one hike by year-end, contrasting earlier cut expectations. Key upcoming catalysts include July and September FOMC meetings alongside fresh CPI and employment releases that could alter the market-implied rate path.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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