Recent July CPI data showing a modest 0.1% monthly rise and 3.4% annual rate, alongside softening July employment figures, have tempered but not eliminated Fed concerns over inflation persistence above target. The FOMC held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% in late July with a 9-3 split, and released minutes on August 19 highlighted growing hawkish sentiment among participants open to tightening if price pressures reaccelerate. Market-implied probabilities from Fed funds futures currently assign roughly 35-36% odds of a 25-basis-point hike at the September 15-16 meeting, with higher chances priced for October or December. The next CPI release on September 11 and fresh labor data will serve as key inputs ahead of that policy decision.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$2,349,047 Vol.
Dec 8, 2026
September Meeting
32%
October Meeting
41%
$2,349,047 Vol.
September Meeting
$895,781 Vol.
32%
October Meeting
$493,267 Vol.
41%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent July CPI data showing a modest 0.1% monthly rise and 3.4% annual rate, alongside softening July employment figures, have tempered but not eliminated Fed concerns over inflation persistence above target. The FOMC held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% in late July with a 9-3 split, and released minutes on August 19 highlighted growing hawkish sentiment among participants open to tightening if price pressures reaccelerate. Market-implied probabilities from Fed funds futures currently assign roughly 35-36% odds of a 25-basis-point hike at the September 15-16 meeting, with higher chances priced for October or December. The next CPI release on September 11 and fresh labor data will serve as key inputs ahead of that policy decision.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Volume
$2,349,047End Date
Oct 29, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent July CPI data showing a modest 0.1% monthly rise and 3.4% annual rate, alongside softening July employment figures, have tempered but not eliminated Fed concerns over inflation persistence above target. The FOMC held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% in late July with a 9-3 split, and released minutes on August 19 highlighted growing hawkish sentiment among participants open to tightening if price pressures reaccelerate. Market-implied probabilities from Fed funds futures currently assign roughly 35-36% odds of a 25-basis-point hike at the September 15-16 meeting, with higher chances priced for October or December. The next CPI release on September 11 and fresh labor data will serve as key inputs ahead of that policy decision.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,349,047End Date
Oct 29, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent July CPI data showing a modest 0.1% monthly rise and 3.4% annual rate, alongside softening July employment figures, have tempered but not eliminated Fed concerns over inflation persistence above target. The FOMC held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% in late July with a 9-3 split, and released minutes on August 19 highlighted growing hawkish sentiment among participants open to tightening if price pressures reaccelerate. Market-implied probabilities from Fed funds futures currently assign roughly 35-36% odds of a 25-basis-point hike at the September 15-16 meeting, with higher chances priced for October or December. The next CPI release on September 11 and fresh labor data will serve as key inputs ahead of that policy decision.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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