GameStop’s rejected May 2026 unsolicited $56 billion bid for eBay, structured as a 50/50 cash-and-stock offer at $125 per share, underpins the 97.5% market-implied probability of no acquisition. eBay’s board deemed the proposal neither credible nor attractive, citing financing uncertainties, leverage risks, governance concerns, and stronger standalone growth prospects under its current strategy. The size mismatch is stark—GameStop’s roughly $13 billion market capitalization and $5 billion cash position contrast with eBay’s $54 billion valuation—while GameStop’s increased 10% stake and activist pressure have not altered eBay’s refusal to engage. Traders price in these barriers as prohibitive for a binding deal. Tail risks remain limited but include a successful proxy contest or surprise third-party financing that could force renewed talks, though regulatory and shareholder hurdles would still loom large.