Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects caution around near-term Fed rate cuts, with CME FedWatch implying over 95% probability of no change at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting following the Federal Reserve's April 28-29 decision to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75%. Recent March CPI surged to 3.3% year-over-year—up sharply from 2.4%—amid solid economic activity and resilient labor conditions, including 178,000 nonfarm payroll additions and steady 4.3% unemployment. These dynamics have pushed back market-implied rate path expectations, though traders eye potential easing later in 2026. Key catalysts ahead: April CPI on May 12 and the next jobs report this week, which could signal softening pressures needed for policy pivot.