Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 100% implied probability against Christopher Waller dissenting at the December 17-18 FOMC meeting, driven by his recent speeches affirming support for a 25 basis point rate cut if inflation data remains on track toward 2%. Waller's data-dependent stance mirrors Fed Chair Powell's gradual easing narrative, reinforced by tame November CPI prints showing core inflation at 2.7% year-over-year—below recent peaks—and resilient labor markets without overheating signals. No public indications of divergence exist, with Waller voting alongside the majority in prior 2024 meetings. Tail risks include hotter-than-expected jobs data on December 6 potentially prompting a hawkish pivot, though such a shift remains improbable given his consistent rhetoric.