Fed Rates predictions & odds

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Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

Fed Rates

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

$421m Vol.

$8m today

$57m Liq.

1,415

Ends in 11 months

96%

Kevin Warsh

$421m Vol.

$8m today

$57m Liq.

1,415

Ends in 11 months

Fed decision in March?

Fed Rates

Fed decision in March?

$75m Vol.

$4m today

$3m Liq.

418

Ends in about 1 month

85%

No change

$75m Vol.

$4m today

$3m Liq.

418

Ends in about 1 month

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

Fed Rates

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

$5m Vol.

$163k today

$865k Liq.

34

Ends in 11 months

27%

2 (50 bps)

$5m Vol.

$163k today

$865k Liq.

34

Ends in 11 months

Fed decision in April?

Fed Rates

Fed decision in April?

$1m Vol.

$61.4k today

$410k Liq.

Ends in 3 months

73%

No change

$1m Vol.

$61.4k today

$410k Liq.

Ends in 3 months

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?

Fed Rates

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?

$897k Vol.

$101k Liq.

30

Ends in 3 months

8%

May 14

$897k Vol.

$101k Liq.

30

Ends in 3 months

Fed Decision in June?

Fed Rates

Fed Decision in June?

$176k Vol.

$285k Liq.

Ends in 4 months

59%

25 bps decrease

$176k Vol.

$285k Liq.

Ends in 4 months

Fed decisions (Dec-Mar)

Fed Rates

Fed decisions (Dec-Mar)

$812k Vol.

$59.9k Liq.

1

Ends in about 1 month

86%

Cut–Pause–Pause

$812k Vol.

$59.9k Liq.

1

Ends in about 1 month

Trump drops Powell investigation by February 28?

Fed Rates

Trump drops Powell investigation by February 28?

$71.4k Vol.

$5.1k Liq.

2

20%

$71.4k Vol.

$5.1k Liq.

2

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

Fed Rates

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

$136k Vol.

$190k Liq.

Ends in 10 months

29%

3.0%

$136k Vol.

$190k Liq.

Ends in 10 months

March Fed Derivative: "25bps cut" flips "Pause" by Feb 28?

Fed Rates

March Fed Derivative: "25bps cut" flips "Pause" by Feb 28?

$16.0k Vol.

$12.1k Liq.

Ends in 20 days

10%

$16.0k Vol.

$12.1k Liq.

Ends in 20 days

Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?

Fed Rates

Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?

$190k Vol.

$16.0k Liq.

31

Ends in 5 months

4%

$190k Vol.

$16.0k Liq.

31

Ends in 5 months

Fed rate cut by...?

Fed Rates

Fed rate cut by...?

$752k Vol.

$77.3k Liq.

3

Ends in 4 months

73%

June Meeting

$752k Vol.

$77.3k Liq.

3

Ends in 4 months

Nothing Ever Happens: Jerome Powell Edition

Fed Rates

Nothing Ever Happens: Jerome Powell Edition

$7.3k Vol.

$3.7k Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

93%

$7.3k Vol.

$3.7k Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

Fed Rates

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

$16.8k Vol.

$13.9k Liq.

Ends in 11 months

22%

$16.8k Vol.

$13.9k Liq.

Ends in 11 months

Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

Fed Rates

Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

$7.8k Vol.

$124k Liq.

Ends in 4 months

41%

Pause–Pause–Cut

$7.8k Vol.

$124k Liq.

Ends in 4 months

Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?

Fed Rates

Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?

$81.3k Vol.

$13.6k Liq.

4

Ends in 11 months

75%

December 31

$81.3k Vol.

$13.6k Liq.

4

Ends in 11 months

Nothing Ever Happens: Interest Rates

Fed Rates

Nothing Ever Happens: Interest Rates

$23.9k Vol.

$3.5k Liq.

4

Ends in about 1 month

70%

$23.9k Vol.

$3.5k Liq.

4

Ends in about 1 month

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

Fed Rates

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

$68.0k Vol.

$27.3k Liq.

Ends in 11 months

78%

4.4%

$68.0k Vol.

$27.3k Liq.

Ends in 11 months

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

Fed Rates

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

$567k Vol.

$189k Liq.

3

Ends in 11 months

89%

↓ 3.25%

$567k Vol.

$189k Liq.

3

Ends in 11 months

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go by March 31?

Fed Rates

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go by March 31?

$79.7k Vol.

$27.7k Liq.

7

Ends in about 2 months

38%

4.4%

$79.7k Vol.

$27.7k Liq.

7

Ends in about 2 months

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