Fed Rates predictions & odds

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Fed decision in March?

Fed Rates

Fed decision in March?

$70m Vol.

$11m today

$3m Liq.

418

Ends in about 1 month

81%

No change

$70m Vol.

$11m today

$3m Liq.

418

Ends in about 1 month

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

Fed Rates

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

$412m Vol.

$10m today

$57m Liq.

1,361

Ends in 11 months

95%

Kevin Warsh

$412m Vol.

$10m today

$57m Liq.

1,361

Ends in 11 months

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

Fed Rates

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

$4m Vol.

$133k today

$845k Liq.

35

Ends in 11 months

27%

2 (50 bps)

$4m Vol.

$133k today

$845k Liq.

35

Ends in 11 months

Fed decision in April?

Fed Rates

Fed decision in April?

$1m Vol.

$382k Liq.

Ends in 3 months

71%

No change

$1m Vol.

$382k Liq.

Ends in 3 months

Fed rate cut by...?

Fed Rates

Fed rate cut by...?

$751k Vol.

$77.5k Liq.

3

Ends in 4 months

69%

June Meeting

$751k Vol.

$77.5k Liq.

3

Ends in 4 months

Fed decisions (Dec-Mar)

Fed Rates

Fed decisions (Dec-Mar)

$808k Vol.

$53.0k Liq.

1

Ends in about 1 month

80%

Cut–Pause–Pause

$808k Vol.

$53.0k Liq.

1

Ends in about 1 month

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?

Fed Rates

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?

$880k Vol.

$108k Liq.

31

Ends in 3 months

7%

May 14

$880k Vol.

$108k Liq.

31

Ends in 3 months

Fed Decision in June?

Fed Rates

Fed Decision in June?

$158k Vol.

$287k Liq.

Ends in 4 months

55%

25 bps decrease

$158k Vol.

$287k Liq.

Ends in 4 months

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go by March 31?

Fed Rates

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go by March 31?

$79.5k Vol.

$23.6k Liq.

7

Ends in about 2 months

35%

4.4%

$79.5k Vol.

$23.6k Liq.

7

Ends in about 2 months

March Fed Derivative: "25bps cut" flips "Pause" by Feb 28?

Fed Rates

March Fed Derivative: "25bps cut" flips "Pause" by Feb 28?

$12.8k Vol.

$12.8k Liq.

Ends in 22 days

9%

$12.8k Vol.

$12.8k Liq.

Ends in 22 days

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

Fed Rates

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

$131k Vol.

$181k Liq.

Ends in 10 months

29%

3.0%

$131k Vol.

$181k Liq.

Ends in 10 months

Trump drops Powell investigation by February 28?

Fed Rates

Trump drops Powell investigation by February 28?

$68.2k Vol.

$5.5k Liq.

2

19%

$68.2k Vol.

$5.5k Liq.

2

Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

Fed Rates

Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

$7.6k Vol.

$124k Liq.

Ends in 4 months

41%

Pause–Pause–Cut

$7.6k Vol.

$124k Liq.

Ends in 4 months

Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?

Fed Rates

Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?

$187k Vol.

$16.1k Liq.

32

Ends in 5 months

4%

$187k Vol.

$16.1k Liq.

32

Ends in 5 months

Nothing Ever Happens: Interest Rates

Fed Rates

Nothing Ever Happens: Interest Rates

$23.9k Vol.

$4.4k Liq.

4

Ends in about 1 month

71%

$23.9k Vol.

$4.4k Liq.

4

Ends in about 1 month

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

Fed Rates

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

$567k Vol.

$185k Liq.

3

Ends in 11 months

89%

↓ 3.25%

$567k Vol.

$185k Liq.

3

Ends in 11 months

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

Fed Rates

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

$67.8k Vol.

$24.7k Liq.

Ends in 11 months

78%

4.4%

$67.8k Vol.

$24.7k Liq.

Ends in 11 months

Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?

Fed Rates

Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?

$81.0k Vol.

$12.7k Liq.

4

Ends in 11 months

75%

December 31

$81.0k Vol.

$12.7k Liq.

4

Ends in 11 months

Fed decisions (Jan-Apr)

Fed Rates

Fed decisions (Jan-Apr)

$52.8k Vol.

$73.0k Liq.

Ends in 3 months

68%

Pause–Pause–Pause

$52.8k Vol.

$73.0k Liq.

Ends in 3 months

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Fed Rates

Fed rate hike in 2026?

$34.7k Vol.

$9.4k Liq.

Ends in 10 months

13%

$34.7k Vol.

$9.4k Liq.

Ends in 10 months

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