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Economy·Rate

What will be the next Fed rate change?

icon for What will be the next Fed rate change?
Economy·Rate

What will be the next Fed rate change?

Hike

61% chance
Polymarket
NEW

Hike

61% chance
Polymarket
NEW
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”. Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated inflation readings and geopolitical tensions driving oil prices higher represent the main catalyst behind the 60.5% implied probability assigned by traders to a rate hike as the Federal Reserve’s next policy move. June 2026 CPI came in at 3.5% year-over-year, cooler than May’s 4.2% but still above target, while core inflation eased to 2.6%; recent FOMC minutes and new Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on price stability have reinforced a hawkish tilt, with the June dot plot showing nine participants favoring at least one 25-basis-point increase this year. Market pricing has shifted from anticipated cuts earlier in 2026 toward two potential hikes by year-end, consistent with the current 3.50–3.75% federal funds target range. Key near-term catalysts include the August 12 CPI release and the September FOMC meeting, where incoming data could either solidify or moderate these market-implied odds amid ongoing uncertainty about inflation’s trajectory.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.

Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm

The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$1,863
End Date
Dec 31, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 14, 2026, 12:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”. Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”. Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated inflation readings and geopolitical tensions driving oil prices higher represent the main catalyst behind the 60.5% implied probability assigned by traders to a rate hike as the Federal Reserve’s next policy move. June 2026 CPI came in at 3.5% year-over-year, cooler than May’s 4.2% but still above target, while core inflation eased to 2.6%; recent FOMC minutes and new Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on price stability have reinforced a hawkish tilt, with the June dot plot showing nine participants favoring at least one 25-basis-point increase this year. Market pricing has shifted from anticipated cuts earlier in 2026 toward two potential hikes by year-end, consistent with the current 3.50–3.75% federal funds target range. Key near-term catalysts include the August 12 CPI release and the September FOMC meeting, where incoming data could either solidify or moderate these market-implied odds amid ongoing uncertainty about inflation’s trajectory.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.

If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.

Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm

The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$1,863
End Date
Dec 31, 2028
Market Opened
Jul 14, 2026, 12:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”. Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm

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Frequently Asked Questions

"What will be the next Fed rate change?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "What will be the next Fed rate change?" at 61%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 61¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 61% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"What will be the next Fed rate change?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jul 14, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "What will be the next Fed rate change?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "What will be the next Fed rate change?" is "What will be the next Fed rate change?" at 61%, meaning the market assigns a 61% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "What will be the next Fed rate change?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.