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Economy predictions & odds

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Fed decision in April?

Fed decision in April?

99%

No change

$96M Vol.

$11M today

$14M Liq.

8

Ends in 13 days

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

24%

$10M Vol.

$799K today

$774K Liq.

Ends in 14 days

Largest Company end of April?

Largest Company end of April?

99%

NVIDIA

$8M Vol.

$657K today

$2M Liq.

Ends in 14 days

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

39%

0 (0 bps)

$19M Vol.

$297K today

$1M Liq.

54

Ends in 9 months

Fed Decision in June?

Fed Decision in June?

91%

No change

$8M Vol.

$282K today

$1M Liq.

Ends in 2 months

Largest Company end of June?

Largest Company end of June?

90%

NVIDIA

$5M Vol.

$271K today

$547K Liq.

79

Ends in 2 months

What Iranian demands will Trump agree to in April?

What Iranian demands will Trump agree to in April?

41%

Unfreeze Iranian Assets

$746K Vol.

$153K today

$107K Liq.

25

Ends in 14 days

China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q1 2026?
Economy·GDP

China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q1 2026?

100%

5.0-5.5%

$533K Vol.

$142K today

$555K Liq.

Ends in about 18 hours

Fed decisions (Jan-Apr)

Fed decisions (Jan-Apr)

99%

Pause–Pause–Pause

$628K Vol.

$104K today

$118K Liq.

Ends in 13 days

ECB Interest Rates: April 2026

ECB Interest Rates: April 2026

96%

No change

$616K Vol.

$68.0K today

$51.9K Liq.

Ends in 14 days

Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

88%

Pause–Pause–Pause

$850K Vol.

$62.5K today

$104K Liq.

Ends in 2 months

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

61%

$851K Vol.

$58.2K today

$82.2K Liq.

Ends in about 1 month

Largest Company end of December 2026?

Largest Company end of December 2026?

70%

NVIDIA

$2M Vol.

$631K Liq.

Ends in 9 months

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ?

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by ___ ?

11%

December 31, 2026

$22M Vol.

$129K Liq.

233

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by end of April?

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by end of April?

75%

20+

$402K Vol.

$71.5K Liq.

Ends in 14 days

Fed Decision in July?

Fed Decision in July?

80%

No change

$4M Vol.

$354K Liq.

Ends in 3 months

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?

37%

$25.2K Vol.

$26.0K Liq.

1

Ends in 14 days

Bank of Japan Decision in April?
Economy·Japan

Bank of Japan Decision in April?

91%

No change

$704K Vol.

$76.6K Liq.

Ends in 12 days

China Annual GDP Growth 2026
Economy·GDP

China Annual GDP Growth 2026

65%

4.0–5.0%

$258K Vol.

$41.7K Liq.

1

How high will inflation get in 2026?
Economy·Inflation

How high will inflation get in 2026?

91%

Above 3.5%

$604K Vol.

$267K Liq.

18

Ends in 9 months

Frequently Asked Questions

Polymarket is the world’s largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge by trading on things related to breaking news, politics, sports, elections, crypto, finance, tech, culture, including topics like Economy.

Polymarket currently hosts 169 active markets for Economy that lets you track or trade on predictions like “Fed decision in April?”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $179.9M in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “Fed decision in April?,” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

As of today, the most active market is “Fed decision in April?,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 99% chance to No change. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

It cuts through the noise. Unlike polls or punditry, Polymarket shows you real-time odds on Economy predictions backed by financial conviction that are often faster and more accurate than experts or surveys. You get an unbiased view of what thousands of traders think will actually happen, often more accurate than polls. Plus, you can trade shares and potentially profit if your predictions are spot on.