Economic Policy predictions & odds

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Fed decision in January?

Economic Policy

Fed decision in January?

$315m Vol.

$29m today

$16m Liq.

1,369

Ends in 14 days

95%

No change

$315m Vol.

$29m today

$16m Liq.

1,369

Ends in 14 days

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

Economic Policy

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

$2m Vol.

$192k today

$971k Liq.

25

Ends in 12 months

28%

2 (50 bps)

$2m Vol.

$192k today

$971k Liq.

25

Ends in 12 months

Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)

Economic Policy

Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)

$811k Vol.

$112k today

$74.2k Liq.

15

Ends in 17 days

96%

Cut–Cut–Pause

$811k Vol.

$112k today

$74.2k Liq.

15

Ends in 17 days

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?

Economic Policy

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?

$345k Vol.

$109k today

$167k Liq.

13

Ends in 4 months

9%

May 14

$345k Vol.

$109k today

$167k Liq.

13

Ends in 4 months

Fed decision in March?

Economic Policy

Fed decision in March?

$2m Vol.

$105k today

$378k Liq.

418

Ends in 2 months

67%

No change

$2m Vol.

$105k today

$378k Liq.

418

Ends in 2 months

Bank of Japan decision in January?

Economic Policy

Bank of Japan decision in January?

$2m Vol.

$92.3k today

$92.5k Liq.

Ends in 9 days

98%

No change

$2m Vol.

$92.3k today

$92.5k Liq.

Ends in 9 days

Fed rate cut by...?

Economic Policy

Fed rate cut by...?

$232k Vol.

$71.6k today

$87.1k Liq.

1

Ends in 5 months

74%

June Meeting

$232k Vol.

$71.6k today

$87.1k Liq.

1

Ends in 5 months

China GDP growth in Q4 2025?

Economic Policy

China GDP growth in Q4 2025?

$197k Vol.

$33.0k Liq.

10

Ends in 17 days

87%

4.5-5.0%

$197k Vol.

$33.0k Liq.

10

Ends in 17 days

Fed decisions (Dec-Mar)

Economic Policy

Fed decisions (Dec-Mar)

$418k Vol.

$81.6k Liq.

1

Ends in 2 months

69%

Cut–Pause–Pause

$418k Vol.

$81.6k Liq.

1

Ends in 2 months

Fed decision in April?

Economic Policy

Fed decision in April?

$625k Vol.

$288k Liq.

Ends in 3 months

69%

No change

$625k Vol.

$288k Liq.

Ends in 3 months

GDP growth in 2025

Economic Policy

Democratic Presidential Nomination

GDP growth in 2025

$762k Vol.

$48.2k Liq.

15

Ends in 15 days

70%

2.0–2.5%

$762k Vol.

$48.2k Liq.

15

Ends in 15 days

Fed decisions (Jan-Apr)

Economic Policy

Fed decisions (Jan-Apr)

$20.5k Vol.

$113k Liq.

Ends in 3 months

51%

Pause–Pause–Pause

$20.5k Vol.

$113k Liq.

Ends in 3 months

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

Economic Policy

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

$293k Vol.

$201k Liq.

3

Ends in 12 months

95%

↓ 3.25%

$293k Vol.

$201k Liq.

3

Ends in 12 months

Will Trump & Elon reduce the deficit in 2025?

Economic Policy

Will Trump & Elon reduce the deficit in 2025?

$214k Vol.

$8.0k Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

<1%

$214k Vol.

$8.0k Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

ECB Interest Rates: February 2026

Economic Policy

ECB Interest Rates: February 2026

$250k Vol.

$101k Liq.

Ends in 22 days

98%

No change

$250k Vol.

$101k Liq.

Ends in 22 days

Bank of Japan Decision in March?

Economic Policy

Bank of Japan Decision in March?

$37.8k Vol.

$14.4k Liq.

Ends in 2 months

86%

No change

$37.8k Vol.

$14.4k Liq.

Ends in 2 months

Bank of Korea decision in January?

Economic Policy

Bank of Korea decision in January?

$98.5k Vol.

$21.7k Liq.

Ends in about 23 hours

99%

No Change

$98.5k Vol.

$21.7k Liq.

Ends in about 23 hours

US GDP growth in Q4 2025?

Economic Policy

US GDP growth in Q4 2025?

$210k Vol.

$26.2k Liq.

2

Ends in 15 days

49%

>3.5%

$210k Vol.

$26.2k Liq.

2

Ends in 15 days

Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in February

Economic Policy

Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in February

$62.3k Vol.

$13.3k Liq.

Ends in 20 days

88%

No Change

$62.3k Vol.

$13.3k Liq.

Ends in 20 days

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

Economic Policy

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

$9.7k Vol.

$217k Liq.

Ends in 11 months

25%

3.25%

$9.7k Vol.

$217k Liq.

Ends in 11 months

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