Strong Q1 2026 GDP growth of 2.0% annualized, rebounding from 0.5% in Q4 2025, underpins the 91.2% market-implied probability against negative full-year growth. Official forecasts from the CBO, IMF, and private institutions project 2.2–2.5% expansion for 2026, driven by fiscal support from the 2025 reconciliation act, surging business fixed investment in AI-related equipment, and resilient consumer spending. Elevated energy prices and tariff effects represent ongoing headwinds, yet baseline projections remain well above contraction thresholds. Escalation in geopolitical tensions or sharper-than-expected inflation pressures could still pressure the outlook, though current data and consensus estimates leave limited scope for annual negative GDP.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCroissance négative du PIB en 2026 ?
Croissance négative du PIB en 2026 ?
Oui
$27,442 Vol.
$27,442 Vol.
29 janv. 2027
Oui
$27,442 Vol.
$27,442 Vol.
29 janv. 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Strong Q1 2026 GDP growth of 2.0% annualized, rebounding from 0.5% in Q4 2025, underpins the 91.2% market-implied probability against negative full-year growth. Official forecasts from the CBO, IMF, and private institutions project 2.2–2.5% expansion for 2026, driven by fiscal support from the 2025 reconciliation act, surging business fixed investment in AI-related equipment, and resilient consumer spending. Elevated energy prices and tariff effects represent ongoing headwinds, yet baseline projections remain well above contraction thresholds. Escalation in geopolitical tensions or sharper-than-expected inflation pressures could still pressure the outlook, though current data and consensus estimates leave limited scope for annual negative GDP.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Volume
$27,442Date de fin
29 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Strong Q1 2026 GDP growth of 2.0% annualized, rebounding from 0.5% in Q4 2025, underpins the 91.2% market-implied probability against negative full-year growth. Official forecasts from the CBO, IMF, and private institutions project 2.2–2.5% expansion for 2026, driven by fiscal support from the 2025 reconciliation act, surging business fixed investment in AI-related equipment, and resilient consumer spending. Elevated energy prices and tariff effects represent ongoing headwinds, yet baseline projections remain well above contraction thresholds. Escalation in geopolitical tensions or sharper-than-expected inflation pressures could still pressure the outlook, though current data and consensus estimates leave limited scope for annual negative GDP.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Volume
$27,442Date de fin
29 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Strong Q1 2026 GDP growth of 2.0% annualized, rebounding from 0.5% in Q4 2025, underpins the 91.2% market-implied probability against negative full-year growth. Official forecasts from the CBO, IMF, and private institutions project 2.2–2.5% expansion for 2026, driven by fiscal support from the 2025 reconciliation act, surging business fixed investment in AI-related equipment, and resilient consumer spending. Elevated energy prices and tariff effects represent ongoing headwinds, yet baseline projections remain well above contraction thresholds. Escalation in geopolitical tensions or sharper-than-expected inflation pressures could still pressure the outlook, though current data and consensus estimates leave limited scope for annual negative GDP.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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