Strong consensus forecasts from institutions including the CBO, Goldman Sachs, and the Philadelphia Fed project U.S. real GDP expanding 2.2–2.5% for 2026 on an annual-average basis, building on the second-quarter estimate of 1.6% annualized growth in Q1. This outlook reflects sustained business investment in AI-related equipment and intellectual property, fiscal support from the 2025 reconciliation act boosting consumer spending and capital outlays, and resilient household demand amid real wage gains. Market-implied odds align with this base case of positive growth, pricing in only modest recession risk. Potential challenges include escalation in tariff impacts or sharper inflation pressures weighing on consumption, though recent data releases show limited signs of such downside shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоОтрицательный рост ВВП в 2026 году?
Отрицательный рост ВВП в 2026 году?
Да
$27,578 Объем
$27,578 Объем
29 янв. 2027 г.
Да
$27,578 Объем
$27,578 Объем
29 янв. 2027 г.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Strong consensus forecasts from institutions including the CBO, Goldman Sachs, and the Philadelphia Fed project U.S. real GDP expanding 2.2–2.5% for 2026 on an annual-average basis, building on the second-quarter estimate of 1.6% annualized growth in Q1. This outlook reflects sustained business investment in AI-related equipment and intellectual property, fiscal support from the 2025 reconciliation act boosting consumer spending and capital outlays, and resilient household demand amid real wage gains. Market-implied odds align with this base case of positive growth, pricing in only modest recession risk. Potential challenges include escalation in tariff impacts or sharper inflation pressures weighing on consumption, though recent data releases show limited signs of such downside shifts.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Объем
$27,578Дата окончания
29 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Strong consensus forecasts from institutions including the CBO, Goldman Sachs, and the Philadelphia Fed project U.S. real GDP expanding 2.2–2.5% for 2026 on an annual-average basis, building on the second-quarter estimate of 1.6% annualized growth in Q1. This outlook reflects sustained business investment in AI-related equipment and intellectual property, fiscal support from the 2025 reconciliation act boosting consumer spending and capital outlays, and resilient household demand amid real wage gains. Market-implied odds align with this base case of positive growth, pricing in only modest recession risk. Potential challenges include escalation in tariff impacts or sharper inflation pressures weighing on consumption, though recent data releases show limited signs of such downside shifts.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Объем
$27,578Дата окончания
29 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Strong consensus forecasts from institutions including the CBO, Goldman Sachs, and the Philadelphia Fed project U.S. real GDP expanding 2.2–2.5% for 2026 on an annual-average basis, building on the second-quarter estimate of 1.6% annualized growth in Q1. This outlook reflects sustained business investment in AI-related equipment and intellectual property, fiscal support from the 2025 reconciliation act boosting consumer spending and capital outlays, and resilient household demand amid real wage gains. Market-implied odds align with this base case of positive growth, pricing in only modest recession risk. Potential challenges include escalation in tariff impacts or sharper inflation pressures weighing on consumption, though recent data releases show limited signs of such downside shifts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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