Strong professional consensus forecasts underpin the 91% market-implied probability against negative U.S. GDP growth in 2026, with projections from the CBO, Philadelphia Fed, and private firms centering on 1.9–2.5% expansion. First-quarter 2026 real GDP rose at a 2.0% annualized rate, supported by fiscal stimulus from the 2025 reconciliation act, robust AI-related capital spending, and steady consumer demand. These elements have kept baseline outlooks comfortably above recession thresholds despite headwinds from elevated energy prices tied to Middle East tensions and tariff effects. Trader positioning reflects this data-driven resilience, though escalation in geopolitical risks or sharper inflation pass-through could still compress activity in the second half of the year.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCroissance négative du PIB en 2026 ?
Croissance négative du PIB en 2026 ?
Oui
$27,442 Vol.
$27,442 Vol.
29 janv. 2027
Oui
$27,442 Vol.
$27,442 Vol.
29 janv. 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Strong professional consensus forecasts underpin the 91% market-implied probability against negative U.S. GDP growth in 2026, with projections from the CBO, Philadelphia Fed, and private firms centering on 1.9–2.5% expansion. First-quarter 2026 real GDP rose at a 2.0% annualized rate, supported by fiscal stimulus from the 2025 reconciliation act, robust AI-related capital spending, and steady consumer demand. These elements have kept baseline outlooks comfortably above recession thresholds despite headwinds from elevated energy prices tied to Middle East tensions and tariff effects. Trader positioning reflects this data-driven resilience, though escalation in geopolitical risks or sharper inflation pass-through could still compress activity in the second half of the year.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Volume
$27,442Date de fin
29 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Strong professional consensus forecasts underpin the 91% market-implied probability against negative U.S. GDP growth in 2026, with projections from the CBO, Philadelphia Fed, and private firms centering on 1.9–2.5% expansion. First-quarter 2026 real GDP rose at a 2.0% annualized rate, supported by fiscal stimulus from the 2025 reconciliation act, robust AI-related capital spending, and steady consumer demand. These elements have kept baseline outlooks comfortably above recession thresholds despite headwinds from elevated energy prices tied to Middle East tensions and tariff effects. Trader positioning reflects this data-driven resilience, though escalation in geopolitical risks or sharper inflation pass-through could still compress activity in the second half of the year.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Volume
$27,442Date de fin
29 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Strong professional consensus forecasts underpin the 91% market-implied probability against negative U.S. GDP growth in 2026, with projections from the CBO, Philadelphia Fed, and private firms centering on 1.9–2.5% expansion. First-quarter 2026 real GDP rose at a 2.0% annualized rate, supported by fiscal stimulus from the 2025 reconciliation act, robust AI-related capital spending, and steady consumer demand. These elements have kept baseline outlooks comfortably above recession thresholds despite headwinds from elevated energy prices tied to Middle East tensions and tariff effects. Trader positioning reflects this data-driven resilience, though escalation in geopolitical risks or sharper inflation pass-through could still compress activity in the second half of the year.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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