Recent U.S. economic data and consensus forecasts underpin the 91.1% market-implied probability against negative GDP growth in 2026. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported 2.0% annualized real GDP expansion in Q1 2026, building on late-2025 momentum and supported by business investment, consumer spending, and fiscal measures including the 2025 reconciliation act. Major projections from the Congressional Budget Office, Deloitte, and others center on 1.8–2.5% full-year growth, reflecting resilient private demand and AI-related capital outlays despite headwinds from tariffs and elevated energy prices tied to Middle East developments. Trader consensus prices in this baseline trajectory while recognizing that prolonged geopolitical shocks or sharper inflation could still tilt outcomes toward contraction.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCroissance négative du PIB en 2026 ?
Croissance négative du PIB en 2026 ?
Oui
$27,442 Vol.
$27,442 Vol.
29 janv. 2027
Oui
$27,442 Vol.
$27,442 Vol.
29 janv. 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Recent U.S. economic data and consensus forecasts underpin the 91.1% market-implied probability against negative GDP growth in 2026. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported 2.0% annualized real GDP expansion in Q1 2026, building on late-2025 momentum and supported by business investment, consumer spending, and fiscal measures including the 2025 reconciliation act. Major projections from the Congressional Budget Office, Deloitte, and others center on 1.8–2.5% full-year growth, reflecting resilient private demand and AI-related capital outlays despite headwinds from tariffs and elevated energy prices tied to Middle East developments. Trader consensus prices in this baseline trajectory while recognizing that prolonged geopolitical shocks or sharper inflation could still tilt outcomes toward contraction.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Volume
$27,442Date de fin
29 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Recent U.S. economic data and consensus forecasts underpin the 91.1% market-implied probability against negative GDP growth in 2026. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported 2.0% annualized real GDP expansion in Q1 2026, building on late-2025 momentum and supported by business investment, consumer spending, and fiscal measures including the 2025 reconciliation act. Major projections from the Congressional Budget Office, Deloitte, and others center on 1.8–2.5% full-year growth, reflecting resilient private demand and AI-related capital outlays despite headwinds from tariffs and elevated energy prices tied to Middle East developments. Trader consensus prices in this baseline trajectory while recognizing that prolonged geopolitical shocks or sharper inflation could still tilt outcomes toward contraction.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Volume
$27,442Date de fin
29 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. economic data and consensus forecasts underpin the 91.1% market-implied probability against negative GDP growth in 2026. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported 2.0% annualized real GDP expansion in Q1 2026, building on late-2025 momentum and supported by business investment, consumer spending, and fiscal measures including the 2025 reconciliation act. Major projections from the Congressional Budget Office, Deloitte, and others center on 1.8–2.5% full-year growth, reflecting resilient private demand and AI-related capital outlays despite headwinds from tariffs and elevated energy prices tied to Middle East developments. Trader consensus prices in this baseline trajectory while recognizing that prolonged geopolitical shocks or sharper inflation could still tilt outcomes toward contraction.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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