Recent U.S. economic data underpin the 91% market-implied odds against negative GDP growth for 2026. The advance estimate showed real GDP expanding at a 2.0% annualized rate in Q1 2026, accelerating from 0.5% in Q4 2025, while private domestic demand and investment provided key support. Major forecasters, including the Congressional Budget Office and Deloitte, project calendar-year growth of 2.2%, with the Philadelphia Fed survey at 2.5%, reflecting fiscal tailwinds from the 2025 reconciliation act and AI-related capital spending. These outlooks outweigh headwinds such as tariffs and Middle East oil disruptions. Escalation of geopolitical tensions or sharper-than-expected labor market softening could still pressure the baseline toward contraction.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Crecimiento negativo del PIB en 2026?
¿Crecimiento negativo del PIB en 2026?
Sí
$27,442 Vol.
$27,442 Vol.
29 ene 2027
Sí
$27,442 Vol.
$27,442 Vol.
29 ene 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Recent U.S. economic data underpin the 91% market-implied odds against negative GDP growth for 2026. The advance estimate showed real GDP expanding at a 2.0% annualized rate in Q1 2026, accelerating from 0.5% in Q4 2025, while private domestic demand and investment provided key support. Major forecasters, including the Congressional Budget Office and Deloitte, project calendar-year growth of 2.2%, with the Philadelphia Fed survey at 2.5%, reflecting fiscal tailwinds from the 2025 reconciliation act and AI-related capital spending. These outlooks outweigh headwinds such as tariffs and Middle East oil disruptions. Escalation of geopolitical tensions or sharper-than-expected labor market softening could still pressure the baseline toward contraction.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Volumen
$27,442Fecha de finalización
29 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Recent U.S. economic data underpin the 91% market-implied odds against negative GDP growth for 2026. The advance estimate showed real GDP expanding at a 2.0% annualized rate in Q1 2026, accelerating from 0.5% in Q4 2025, while private domestic demand and investment provided key support. Major forecasters, including the Congressional Budget Office and Deloitte, project calendar-year growth of 2.2%, with the Philadelphia Fed survey at 2.5%, reflecting fiscal tailwinds from the 2025 reconciliation act and AI-related capital spending. These outlooks outweigh headwinds such as tariffs and Middle East oil disruptions. Escalation of geopolitical tensions or sharper-than-expected labor market softening could still pressure the baseline toward contraction.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Volumen
$27,442Fecha de finalización
29 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. economic data underpin the 91% market-implied odds against negative GDP growth for 2026. The advance estimate showed real GDP expanding at a 2.0% annualized rate in Q1 2026, accelerating from 0.5% in Q4 2025, while private domestic demand and investment provided key support. Major forecasters, including the Congressional Budget Office and Deloitte, project calendar-year growth of 2.2%, with the Philadelphia Fed survey at 2.5%, reflecting fiscal tailwinds from the 2025 reconciliation act and AI-related capital spending. These outlooks outweigh headwinds such as tariffs and Middle East oil disruptions. Escalation of geopolitical tensions or sharper-than-expected labor market softening could still pressure the baseline toward contraction.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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