Recent U.S. economic data and consensus forecasts underpin the 91.1% market-implied probability against negative GDP growth in 2026. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported 2.0% annualized real GDP expansion in Q1 2026, building on late-2025 momentum and supported by business investment, consumer spending, and fiscal measures including the 2025 reconciliation act. Major projections from the Congressional Budget Office, Deloitte, and others center on 1.8–2.5% full-year growth, reflecting resilient private demand and AI-related capital outlays despite headwinds from tariffs and elevated energy prices tied to Middle East developments. Trader consensus prices in this baseline trajectory while recognizing that prolonged geopolitical shocks or sharper inflation could still tilt outcomes toward contraction.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCroissance négative du PIB en 2026 ?
Oui
$27,442 Vol.
$27,442 Vol.
Oui
$27,442 Vol.
$27,442 Vol.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. economic data and consensus forecasts underpin the 91.1% market-implied probability against negative GDP growth in 2026. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported 2.0% annualized real GDP expansion in Q1 2026, building on late-2025 momentum and supported by business investment, consumer spending, and fiscal measures including the 2025 reconciliation act. Major projections from the Congressional Budget Office, Deloitte, and others center on 1.8–2.5% full-year growth, reflecting resilient private demand and AI-related capital outlays despite headwinds from tariffs and elevated energy prices tied to Middle East developments. Trader consensus prices in this baseline trajectory while recognizing that prolonged geopolitical shocks or sharper inflation could still tilt outcomes toward contraction.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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