Robust consensus forecasts from the Federal Reserve and private economists project U.S. real GDP growth of 2.2–2.8 percent for 2026, underpinned by resilient consumer spending, strong business investment in AI, and productivity gains that offset higher interest rates and energy prices stemming from geopolitical tensions. Recent quarterly data and nowcasts show positive annualized growth near or above 2 percent, with labor markets remaining stable near full employment and no leading indicators signaling contraction. Market-implied odds reflect this broad alignment of data and projections priced in by traders. Tail risks that could still shift outcomes include a severe escalation in Middle East energy shocks triggering stagflation or a sharp pullback in AI-related capital expenditures that removes a key growth driver.