Recent U.S. economic data and institutional forecasts underpin the 98% market-implied probability against negative GDP growth for 2026. Real GDP expanded at a 2.2% annualized rate in Q2 2026, with upward revisions to first-half figures reflecting stronger consumer spending and AI-driven business investment. Consensus projections from the IMF, Federal Reserve, and private economists center on 2.1–2.3% full-year growth, supported by a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.2% and the Sahm rule far below recession thresholds. While geopolitical tensions and energy price pressures introduce stagflation risks, these factors have not derailed momentum. Tail risks that could still shift outcomes include a sharp escalation in Middle East conflicts triggering sustained supply shocks or an abrupt pullback in capital expenditures.