Robust US economic data and consensus forecasts underpin the 98% market-implied probability against negative 2026 GDP growth. Recent projections from the Federal Reserve, PIIE, Vanguard, and U.S. Bank place full-year real GDP expansion between 2.2% and 2.8%, supported by resilient consumer spending, strong AI-driven business investment, and positive Q3 nowcasts near 3%. These factors have sustained quarterly gains through mid-2026 despite elevated interest rates and energy prices. Trader sentiment reflects this broad institutional outlook rather than recession signals. Tail risks include sharper monetary tightening if inflation persists, a sudden pullback in AI capital expenditures, or adverse geopolitical developments that could tip the economy into contraction, though such scenarios remain low-probability given current leading indicators.