Robust US economic momentum, fueled by resilient consumer spending and AI-driven business investment, underpins the 98% market-implied probability against negative 2026 GDP growth. Recent data show Q2 real GDP expanding at a 2.2% annualized rate after upward revisions, with Q3 nowcasts tracking near 3%, while consensus forecasts from Vanguard, PIIE, and the FOMC project full-year growth of 2.1–2.3%. Elevated federal funds rates near 3.75–4% and core PCE around 3% have not derailed expansion, as private final sales to domestic purchasers remain strong. Tail risks include a sharp escalation in energy prices from geopolitical shocks or an aggressive monetary tightening that curtails demand more than expected in the final quarter.