Recent U.S. economic data and consensus forecasts underpin the 91.6% market-implied probability against negative GDP growth for 2026. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported real GDP expanding at a 2.0% annualized rate in Q1 2026 (revised to 1.6% in the second estimate), supported by business fixed investment, consumer spending, and a rebound in private domestic demand following the 2025 government shutdown. Major forecasters, including the CBO at 2.2% and Goldman Sachs at 2.6%, project full-year expansion near or above 2%, driven by AI-related capital spending and fiscal measures despite tariff pressures and elevated energy prices. Traders assign low odds to contraction given this baseline trajectory and resilient labor market indicators. Potential swing factors include escalation in Middle East tensions or sharper inflation that could weigh on consumption and prompt tighter policy.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоОтрицательный рост ВВП в 2026 году?
Отрицательный рост ВВП в 2026 году?
Да
$27,578 Объем
$27,578 Объем
29 янв. 2027 г.
Да
$27,578 Объем
$27,578 Объем
29 янв. 2027 г.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Recent U.S. economic data and consensus forecasts underpin the 91.6% market-implied probability against negative GDP growth for 2026. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported real GDP expanding at a 2.0% annualized rate in Q1 2026 (revised to 1.6% in the second estimate), supported by business fixed investment, consumer spending, and a rebound in private domestic demand following the 2025 government shutdown. Major forecasters, including the CBO at 2.2% and Goldman Sachs at 2.6%, project full-year expansion near or above 2%, driven by AI-related capital spending and fiscal measures despite tariff pressures and elevated energy prices. Traders assign low odds to contraction given this baseline trajectory and resilient labor market indicators. Potential swing factors include escalation in Middle East tensions or sharper inflation that could weigh on consumption and prompt tighter policy.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Объем
$27,578Дата окончания
29 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Recent U.S. economic data and consensus forecasts underpin the 91.6% market-implied probability against negative GDP growth for 2026. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported real GDP expanding at a 2.0% annualized rate in Q1 2026 (revised to 1.6% in the second estimate), supported by business fixed investment, consumer spending, and a rebound in private domestic demand following the 2025 government shutdown. Major forecasters, including the CBO at 2.2% and Goldman Sachs at 2.6%, project full-year expansion near or above 2%, driven by AI-related capital spending and fiscal measures despite tariff pressures and elevated energy prices. Traders assign low odds to contraction given this baseline trajectory and resilient labor market indicators. Potential swing factors include escalation in Middle East tensions or sharper inflation that could weigh on consumption and prompt tighter policy.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Объем
$27,578Дата окончания
29 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. economic data and consensus forecasts underpin the 91.6% market-implied probability against negative GDP growth for 2026. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported real GDP expanding at a 2.0% annualized rate in Q1 2026 (revised to 1.6% in the second estimate), supported by business fixed investment, consumer spending, and a rebound in private domestic demand following the 2025 government shutdown. Major forecasters, including the CBO at 2.2% and Goldman Sachs at 2.6%, project full-year expansion near or above 2%, driven by AI-related capital spending and fiscal measures despite tariff pressures and elevated energy prices. Traders assign low odds to contraction given this baseline trajectory and resilient labor market indicators. Potential swing factors include escalation in Middle East tensions or sharper inflation that could weigh on consumption and prompt tighter policy.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы