Broad institutional forecasts from the Federal Reserve, IMF, and private analysts project U.S. real GDP growth of 2.0–2.3% for 2026, underpinned by resilient consumer spending and robust business fixed investment in AI infrastructure that have sustained positive quarterly expansions through mid-2026. Recent upward revisions to first-half GDP figures, Q3 nowcasts near 3.6% annualized, and a low unemployment rate near 4.3% reinforce this expansionary path, driving the 98% market-implied probability against contraction. Trader consensus reflects skin-in-the-game aggregation of these data points rather than recession signals. Tail-risk scenarios include escalation of geopolitical tensions such as the Iran conflict, additional tariff-driven supply shocks, or an abrupt pullback in AI capital expenditures that could pressure margins and tip quarterly readings negative, though current leading indicators show limited evidence of such shifts materializing by year-end.