Recent Middle East tensions have driven euro-area energy prices higher, prompting the ECB to revise its 2026 headline inflation forecast upward to 2.6 percent while holding the deposit facility rate steady at 2 percent after the April meeting. Staff projections and Governing Council communications emphasize a data-dependent stance, with futures markets and Reuters economist surveys pricing in at least one modest hike by year-end and minimal scope for easing. Subdued growth forecasts around 0.9 percent and anchored longer-term expectations further reduce the likelihood of any rate reduction before December 31, underpinning the current trader consensus reflected in market pricing.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
$28,063 Vol.
$28,063 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$28,063 Vol.
$28,063 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent Middle East tensions have driven euro-area energy prices higher, prompting the ECB to revise its 2026 headline inflation forecast upward to 2.6 percent while holding the deposit facility rate steady at 2 percent after the April meeting. Staff projections and Governing Council communications emphasize a data-dependent stance, with futures markets and Reuters economist surveys pricing in at least one modest hike by year-end and minimal scope for easing. Subdued growth forecasts around 0.9 percent and anchored longer-term expectations further reduce the likelihood of any rate reduction before December 31, underpinning the current trader consensus reflected in market pricing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ET
Volume
$28,063Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent Middle East tensions have driven euro-area energy prices higher, prompting the ECB to revise its 2026 headline inflation forecast upward to 2.6 percent while holding the deposit facility rate steady at 2 percent after the April meeting. Staff projections and Governing Council communications emphasize a data-dependent stance, with futures markets and Reuters economist surveys pricing in at least one modest hike by year-end and minimal scope for easing. Subdued growth forecasts around 0.9 percent and anchored longer-term expectations further reduce the likelihood of any rate reduction before December 31, underpinning the current trader consensus reflected in market pricing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$28,063Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent Middle East tensions have driven euro-area energy prices higher, prompting the ECB to revise its 2026 headline inflation forecast upward to 2.6 percent while holding the deposit facility rate steady at 2 percent after the April meeting. Staff projections and Governing Council communications emphasize a data-dependent stance, with futures markets and Reuters economist surveys pricing in at least one modest hike by year-end and minimal scope for easing. Subdued growth forecasts around 0.9 percent and anchored longer-term expectations further reduce the likelihood of any rate reduction before December 31, underpinning the current trader consensus reflected in market pricing.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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