Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 73% implied probability against an ECB rate cut in 2026, driven by the Governing Council's March 19 decision to hold the deposit facility rate at 2% while lifting its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.6% from 1.9%. Eurozone annual inflation surged to 2.5% in March—above the 2% target—fueled by soaring energy costs, reversing prior disinflation trends and prompting economists like those at Morgan Stanley to scrap prior cut expectations. Steady economic growth and persistent upside inflation risks reinforce bets on prolonged policy restriction, with the next review on April 30 unlikely to shift this stance absent a sharp downturn.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$23,896 Vol.
$23,896 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$23,896 Vol.
$23,896 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 73% implied probability against an ECB rate cut in 2026, driven by the Governing Council's March 19 decision to hold the deposit facility rate at 2% while lifting its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.6% from 1.9%. Eurozone annual inflation surged to 2.5% in March—above the 2% target—fueled by soaring energy costs, reversing prior disinflation trends and prompting economists like those at Morgan Stanley to scrap prior cut expectations. Steady economic growth and persistent upside inflation risks reinforce bets on prolonged policy restriction, with the next review on April 30 unlikely to shift this stance absent a sharp downturn.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ET
Volume
$23,896End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 73% implied probability against an ECB rate cut in 2026, driven by the Governing Council's March 19 decision to hold the deposit facility rate at 2% while lifting its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.6% from 1.9%. Eurozone annual inflation surged to 2.5% in March—above the 2% target—fueled by soaring energy costs, reversing prior disinflation trends and prompting economists like those at Morgan Stanley to scrap prior cut expectations. Steady economic growth and persistent upside inflation risks reinforce bets on prolonged policy restriction, with the next review on April 30 unlikely to shift this stance absent a sharp downturn.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$23,896End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 73% implied probability against an ECB rate cut in 2026, driven by the Governing Council's March 19 decision to hold the deposit facility rate at 2% while lifting its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.6% from 1.9%. Eurozone annual inflation surged to 2.5% in March—above the 2% target—fueled by soaring energy costs, reversing prior disinflation trends and prompting economists like those at Morgan Stanley to scrap prior cut expectations. Steady economic growth and persistent upside inflation risks reinforce bets on prolonged policy restriction, with the next review on April 30 unlikely to shift this stance absent a sharp downturn.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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