Recent FOMC projections place median U.S. real GDP growth for 2026 at 2.3% on a Q4/Q4 basis, aligning with the 69.5% market-implied probability for the 2.0–2.5% range. This positioning reflects resilient expansion supported by AI-driven capital spending on data centers and technology equipment, which has offset drags from elevated energy prices near $90 per barrel and restrictive monetary policy with the federal funds rate near 4%. Private forecasts from institutions including the American Bankers Association and U.S. Bank cluster around 2.2% annual growth, citing steady consumer demand and balanced labor market conditions with unemployment near 4.1%. The 29.8% odds on growth above 2.5% incorporate upside from potential productivity gains, while lower ranges remain discounted amid limited evidence of sharp slowdowns. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming inflation readings and FOMC communications that could refine rate expectations.