The near 50-50 split between the 2.0–2.5% and >2.5% bins for 2026 U.S. GDP growth reflects consensus forecasts from the IMF, PIIE, Vanguard, and the FOMC’s September SEP all centering near 2.3%, supported by robust consumer spending and AI-driven business investment that lifted Q2 annualized growth to 2.2%. Persistent core PCE inflation near 3.4%, the Fed’s September rate hike to the 3.75–4% range with another expected by year-end, and energy-price shocks from geopolitical tensions introduce downside risks that could cap expansion in the lower half of that range. Recent labor-market softening, with September payrolls at just 29,000 and unemployment at 4.2%, adds further uncertainty ahead of the October CPI release and December FOMC meeting.