Market-implied odds for 2026 U.S. real GDP growth place the 2.0–2.5% range at 57% and above 2.5% at 37%, reflecting trader consensus around moderate expansion. Recent FOMC projections from mid-September show a 2.3% median Q4/Q4 forecast, aligned with private estimates of 2.1–2.2% that cite resilient consumer spending, AI-related business investment, and productivity gains offsetting slower labor-force growth and higher energy prices. Second-quarter GDP printed 1.5% annualized, but underlying demand appears firmer, while persistent core inflation near 3% has prompted expectations of further Fed tightening. These factors support the current pricing, though outcomes could shift with incoming labor data, fiscal developments, or geopolitical events before year-end.