Recent FOMC projections place median 2026 real GDP growth at 2.3% on a Q4/Q4 basis, revised modestly higher from June, aligning with private forecasts clustered around 2.2%. This underpins the 69% market-implied probability for the 2.0–2.5% outcome. Resilient consumer spending, robust AI-related capital investment, and productivity gains have offset headwinds from elevated energy prices, sticky inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, and the recent 25-basis-point policy rate increase. Second-quarter GDP expanded at a 1.5% annualized pace, yet underlying demand remains firmer. With the labor market balanced and no recession priced in, traders see limited scope for sub-2% growth absent major shocks, while the 29.9% odds on above 2.5% reflect upside potential from sustained business investment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated2.0–2.5% 69%
>2.5% 29.7%
1.5–2.0% 2.8%
<0.5% 1.3%
$75,772 Vol.
$75,772 Vol.
Jan 28, 2027
<0.5%
1%
0.5–1.0%
1%
1.0–1.5%
1%
1.5–2.0%
3%
2.0–2.5%
69%
>2.5%
30%
2.0–2.5% 69%
>2.5% 29.7%
1.5–2.0% 2.8%
<0.5% 1.3%
$75,772 Vol.
$75,772 Vol.
Jan 28, 2027
<0.5%
$8,398 Vol.
1%
0.5–1.0%
$18,009 Vol.
1%
1.0–1.5%
$4,666 Vol.
1%
1.5–2.0%
$9,024 Vol.
3%
2.0–2.5%
$16,174 Vol.
69%
>2.5%
$19,501 Vol.
30%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent FOMC projections place median 2026 real GDP growth at 2.3% on a Q4/Q4 basis, revised modestly higher from June, aligning with private forecasts clustered around 2.2%. This underpins the 69% market-implied probability for the 2.0–2.5% outcome. Resilient consumer spending, robust AI-related capital investment, and productivity gains have offset headwinds from elevated energy prices, sticky inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, and the recent 25-basis-point policy rate increase. Second-quarter GDP expanded at a 1.5% annualized pace, yet underlying demand remains firmer. With the labor market balanced and no recession priced in, traders see limited scope for sub-2% growth absent major shocks, while the 29.9% odds on above 2.5% reflect upside potential from sustained business investment.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
Volume
$75,772End Date
Jan 29, 2027Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent FOMC projections place median 2026 real GDP growth at 2.3% on a Q4/Q4 basis, revised modestly higher from June, aligning with private forecasts clustered around 2.2%. This underpins the 69% market-implied probability for the 2.0–2.5% outcome. Resilient consumer spending, robust AI-related capital investment, and productivity gains have offset headwinds from elevated energy prices, sticky inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, and the recent 25-basis-point policy rate increase. Second-quarter GDP expanded at a 1.5% annualized pace, yet underlying demand remains firmer. With the labor market balanced and no recession priced in, traders see limited scope for sub-2% growth absent major shocks, while the 29.9% odds on above 2.5% reflect upside potential from sustained business investment.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$75,772End Date
Jan 29, 2027Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...Recent FOMC projections place median 2026 real GDP growth at 2.3% on a Q4/Q4 basis, revised modestly higher from June, aligning with private forecasts clustered around 2.2%. This underpins the 69% market-implied probability for the 2.0–2.5% outcome. Resilient consumer spending, robust AI-related capital investment, and productivity gains have offset headwinds from elevated energy prices, sticky inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, and the recent 25-basis-point policy rate increase. Second-quarter GDP expanded at a 1.5% annualized pace, yet underlying demand remains firmer. With the labor market balanced and no recession priced in, traders see limited scope for sub-2% growth absent major shocks, while the 29.9% odds on above 2.5% reflect upside potential from sustained business investment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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