Trader sentiment on 2026 U.S. real GDP growth favors the >2.5% outcome at 44% implied probability, driven primarily by the lingering boost from the 2025 reconciliation act's tax cuts and full expensing provisions, which analysts project will lift consumer spending and business investment into the new year. First-quarter 2026 data showed annualized growth of 1.6-2.0%, with momentum from AI capital expenditures and a resilient labor market offsetting some tariff drag. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have introduced oil-price and inflation headwinds that could compress real activity, yet most institutional forecasts from the CBO, Deloitte, and others cluster near 2.2%, leaving room for upside if fiscal effects and productivity gains exceed baseline assumptions. Key upcoming catalysts include second-quarter GDP releases and Federal Reserve communications on policy amid elevated energy costs.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于>2.5% 45%
1.5–2.0% 18.6%
2.0–2.5% 18%
1.0–1.5% 10.7%
$29,993 交易量
$29,993 交易量
2027-01-29
低于0.5%
5%
0.5–1.0%
7%
1.0–1.5%
11%
1.5–2.0%
19%
2.0–2.5%
18%
>2.5%
45%
>2.5% 45%
1.5–2.0% 18.6%
2.0–2.5% 18%
1.0–1.5% 10.7%
$29,993 交易量
$29,993 交易量
2027-01-29
低于0.5%
$4,104 交易量
5%
0.5–1.0%
$15,505 交易量
7%
1.0–1.5%
$1,936 交易量
11%
1.5–2.0%
$1,978 交易量
19%
2.0–2.5%
$2,150 交易量
18%
>2.5%
$4,320 交易量
45%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader sentiment on 2026 U.S. real GDP growth favors the >2.5% outcome at 44% implied probability, driven primarily by the lingering boost from the 2025 reconciliation act's tax cuts and full expensing provisions, which analysts project will lift consumer spending and business investment into the new year. First-quarter 2026 data showed annualized growth of 1.6-2.0%, with momentum from AI capital expenditures and a resilient labor market offsetting some tariff drag. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have introduced oil-price and inflation headwinds that could compress real activity, yet most institutional forecasts from the CBO, Deloitte, and others cluster near 2.2%, leaving room for upside if fiscal effects and productivity gains exceed baseline assumptions. Key upcoming catalysts include second-quarter GDP releases and Federal Reserve communications on policy amid elevated energy costs.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
交易量
$29,993结束日期
2027-01-29市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader sentiment on 2026 U.S. real GDP growth favors the >2.5% outcome at 44% implied probability, driven primarily by the lingering boost from the 2025 reconciliation act's tax cuts and full expensing provisions, which analysts project will lift consumer spending and business investment into the new year. First-quarter 2026 data showed annualized growth of 1.6-2.0%, with momentum from AI capital expenditures and a resilient labor market offsetting some tariff drag. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have introduced oil-price and inflation headwinds that could compress real activity, yet most institutional forecasts from the CBO, Deloitte, and others cluster near 2.2%, leaving room for upside if fiscal effects and productivity gains exceed baseline assumptions. Key upcoming catalysts include second-quarter GDP releases and Federal Reserve communications on policy amid elevated energy costs.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$29,993结束日期
2027-01-29市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader sentiment on 2026 U.S. real GDP growth favors the >2.5% outcome at 44% implied probability, driven primarily by the lingering boost from the 2025 reconciliation act's tax cuts and full expensing provisions, which analysts project will lift consumer spending and business investment into the new year. First-quarter 2026 data showed annualized growth of 1.6-2.0%, with momentum from AI capital expenditures and a resilient labor market offsetting some tariff drag. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have introduced oil-price and inflation headwinds that could compress real activity, yet most institutional forecasts from the CBO, Deloitte, and others cluster near 2.2%, leaving room for upside if fiscal effects and productivity gains exceed baseline assumptions. Key upcoming catalysts include second-quarter GDP releases and Federal Reserve communications on policy amid elevated energy costs.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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