China's official 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5%-5%, announced during the Two Sessions on March 4, anchors trader consensus at 72.5% for the 4.0-5.0% band, reflecting a pragmatic shift from 2025's 5% achievement amid property sector weakness and global trade risks. IMF and UBS forecasts cluster around 4.5%, bolstered by recent stimulus pledges including bank injections, a 4% fiscal deficit, and tech financing, while February home price declines slowed. Early 2026 data signals firmer momentum via exports and consumption stabilization efforts, pricing modest upside at 25.5% for 5.0-6.0%, with lower bands dismissed due to policy buffers against deflationary pressures.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated4.0–5.0% 73%
5.0–6.0% 25.4%
3.0–4.0% <1%
2.0–3.0% <1%
$195,073 Vol.
$195,073 Vol.
Jan 31, 2026
<1.0%
<1%
1.0–2.0%
1%
2.0–3.0%
1%
3.0–4.0%
1%
4.0–5.0%
73%
5.0–6.0%
25%
6.0-7.0%
1%
7.0–8.0%
1%
8.0–9.0%
1%
9.0%+
<1%
4.0–5.0% 73%
5.0–6.0% 25.4%
3.0–4.0% <1%
2.0–3.0% <1%
$195,073 Vol.
$195,073 Vol.
Jan 31, 2026
<1.0%
$16,614 Vol.
<1%
1.0–2.0%
$26,138 Vol.
1%
2.0–3.0%
$5,318 Vol.
1%
3.0–4.0%
$6,071 Vol.
1%
4.0–5.0%
$10,628 Vol.
73%
5.0–6.0%
$10,957 Vol.
25%
6.0-7.0%
$17,890 Vol.
1%
7.0–8.0%
$28,083 Vol.
1%
8.0–9.0%
$5,615 Vol.
1%
9.0%+
$67,759 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's official 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5%-5%, announced during the Two Sessions on March 4, anchors trader consensus at 72.5% for the 4.0-5.0% band, reflecting a pragmatic shift from 2025's 5% achievement amid property sector weakness and global trade risks. IMF and UBS forecasts cluster around 4.5%, bolstered by recent stimulus pledges including bank injections, a 4% fiscal deficit, and tech financing, while February home price declines slowed. Early 2026 data signals firmer momentum via exports and consumption stabilization efforts, pricing modest upside at 25.5% for 5.0-6.0%, with lower bands dismissed due to policy buffers against deflationary pressures.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Volume
$195,073End Date
Jan 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's official 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5%-5%, announced during the Two Sessions on March 4, anchors trader consensus at 72.5% for the 4.0-5.0% band, reflecting a pragmatic shift from 2025's 5% achievement amid property sector weakness and global trade risks. IMF and UBS forecasts cluster around 4.5%, bolstered by recent stimulus pledges including bank injections, a 4% fiscal deficit, and tech financing, while February home price declines slowed. Early 2026 data signals firmer momentum via exports and consumption stabilization efforts, pricing modest upside at 25.5% for 5.0-6.0%, with lower bands dismissed due to policy buffers against deflationary pressures.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$195,073End Date
Jan 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...China's official 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5%-5%, announced during the Two Sessions on March 4, anchors trader consensus at 72.5% for the 4.0-5.0% band, reflecting a pragmatic shift from 2025's 5% achievement amid property sector weakness and global trade risks. IMF and UBS forecasts cluster around 4.5%, bolstered by recent stimulus pledges including bank injections, a 4% fiscal deficit, and tech financing, while February home price declines slowed. Early 2026 data signals firmer momentum via exports and consumption stabilization efforts, pricing modest upside at 25.5% for 5.0-6.0%, with lower bands dismissed due to policy buffers against deflationary pressures.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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