Polymarket traders' closely matched implied probabilities for UK annual GDP growth in 2026—<0% at 41%, 0-1% at 31.5%, and 4-5% at 29.5%—reflect deep uncertainty amid conflicting signals from robust early-year data and escalating geopolitical headwinds. The Office for National Statistics reported stronger-than-expected 0.5% monthly GDP expansion in February 2026 (released April 16), with three-month growth to February revised to 0.5%, signaling initial momentum. However, the IMF and OECD slashed forecasts to 0.8% from prior 1.3% estimates, citing the Iran conflict's energy price shocks and renewed inflation pressures projected at 3.2%. Competitive dynamics hinge on Middle East escalation versus de-escalation, Bank of England monetary policy response at upcoming May FOMC-equivalent meetings, and Q1 GDP confirmation, with recession risks balanced against potential rebound if oil stabilizes below $100/barrel.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated<0 25%
4-5% 17%
0-1% 11%
1-2% 11%
NEW
NEW
Feb 12, 2027
<0
39%
0-1%
32%
1-2%
22%
2-3%
7%
3-4%
8%
4-5%
29%
5%+
5%
<0 25%
4-5% 17%
0-1% 11%
1-2% 11%
NEW
NEW
Feb 12, 2027
<0
$345 Vol.
39%
0-1%
$309 Vol.
32%
1-2%
$210 Vol.
22%
2-3%
$247 Vol.
7%
3-4%
$201 Vol.
8%
4-5%
$413 Vol.
29%
5%+
$252 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Polymarket traders' closely matched implied probabilities for UK annual GDP growth in 2026—<0% at 41%, 0-1% at 31.5%, and 4-5% at 29.5%—reflect deep uncertainty amid conflicting signals from robust early-year data and escalating geopolitical headwinds. The Office for National Statistics reported stronger-than-expected 0.5% monthly GDP expansion in February 2026 (released April 16), with three-month growth to February revised to 0.5%, signaling initial momentum. However, the IMF and OECD slashed forecasts to 0.8% from prior 1.3% estimates, citing the Iran conflict's energy price shocks and renewed inflation pressures projected at 3.2%. Competitive dynamics hinge on Middle East escalation versus de-escalation, Bank of England monetary policy response at upcoming May FOMC-equivalent meetings, and Q1 GDP confirmation, with recession risks balanced against potential rebound if oil stabilizes below $100/barrel.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ET
Volume
$1,976End Date
Feb 12, 2027Market Opened
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Polymarket traders' closely matched implied probabilities for UK annual GDP growth in 2026—<0% at 41%, 0-1% at 31.5%, and 4-5% at 29.5%—reflect deep uncertainty amid conflicting signals from robust early-year data and escalating geopolitical headwinds. The Office for National Statistics reported stronger-than-expected 0.5% monthly GDP expansion in February 2026 (released April 16), with three-month growth to February revised to 0.5%, signaling initial momentum. However, the IMF and OECD slashed forecasts to 0.8% from prior 1.3% estimates, citing the Iran conflict's energy price shocks and renewed inflation pressures projected at 3.2%. Competitive dynamics hinge on Middle East escalation versus de-escalation, Bank of England monetary policy response at upcoming May FOMC-equivalent meetings, and Q1 GDP confirmation, with recession risks balanced against potential rebound if oil stabilizes below $100/barrel.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,976End Date
Feb 12, 2027Market Opened
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders' closely matched implied probabilities for UK annual GDP growth in 2026—<0% at 41%, 0-1% at 31.5%, and 4-5% at 29.5%—reflect deep uncertainty amid conflicting signals from robust early-year data and escalating geopolitical headwinds. The Office for National Statistics reported stronger-than-expected 0.5% monthly GDP expansion in February 2026 (released April 16), with three-month growth to February revised to 0.5%, signaling initial momentum. However, the IMF and OECD slashed forecasts to 0.8% from prior 1.3% estimates, citing the Iran conflict's energy price shocks and renewed inflation pressures projected at 3.2%. Competitive dynamics hinge on Middle East escalation versus de-escalation, Bank of England monetary policy response at upcoming May FOMC-equivalent meetings, and Q1 GDP confirmation, with recession risks balanced against potential rebound if oil stabilizes below $100/barrel.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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