Market icon
Economy·Macro Indicators

Eurozone GDP growth in Q1 2026

Market icon
Economy·Macro Indicators

Eurozone GDP growth in Q1 2026

Apr 30

Apr 30

NEW
Apr 30, 2026
Polymarket

$3,661 Vol.

Polymarket

<0.5%

$0 Vol.

20%

0.5-0.8%

$0 Vol.

38%

0.9-1.2%

$0 Vol.

48%

1.3-1.6%

$22 Vol.

32%

1.7-2.0%

$3,639 Vol.

47%

2.1-2.4%

$0 Vol.

31%

2.5%+

$0 Vol.

36%

This market will resolve according to the Eurozone (Euro Area 21) Q1 2026 GDP growth rate over the same quarter of the previous year (% change), based on seasonally adjusted data, in the Eurostat Preliminary Flash Estimate of GDP release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. This market’s resolution source reports GDP growth rates to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader sentiment for Eurozone Q1 2026 GDP growth centers on consensus forecasts implying around 0.3% quarter-on-quarter expansion, aligning with ECB staff's March 19 projections of 0.9% annual growth for 2026—down 0.3 percentage points from December amid softening dynamics. Q4 2025 delivered 0.3% q/q growth, but March flash composite PMI slipped to a 10-month low of 50.5 from 51.9, signaling stagflation risks from rising energy costs and subdued demand, compounded by economic sentiment at 96.6 and plunging consumer confidence. ECB held key rates steady with inflation near 2%. Watch final March PMIs this week and late-April flash GDP for resolution catalysts.

Trader sentiment for Eurozone Q1 2026 GDP growth centers on consensus forecasts implying around 0.3% quarter-on-quarter expansion, aligning with ECB staff's March 19 projections of 0.9% annual growth for 2026—down 0.3 percentage points from December amid softening dynamics. Q4 2025 delivered 0.3% q/q growth, but March flash composite PMI slipped to a 10-month low of 50.5 from 51.9, signaling stagflation risks from rising energy costs and subdued demand, compounded by economic sentiment at 96.6 and plunging consumer confidence. ECB held key rates steady with inflation near 2%. Watch final March PMIs this week and late-April flash GDP for resolution catalysts.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve according to the Eurozone (Euro Area 21) Q1 2026 GDP growth rate over the same quarter of the previous year (% change), based on seasonally adjusted data, in the Eurostat Preliminary Flash Estimate of GDP release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. This market’s resolution source reports GDP growth rates to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader sentiment for Eurozone Q1 2026 GDP growth centers on consensus forecasts implying around 0.3% quarter-on-quarter expansion, aligning with ECB staff's March 19 projections of 0.9% annual growth for 2026—down 0.3 percentage points from December amid softening dynamics. Q4 2025 delivered 0.3% q/q growth, but March flash composite PMI slipped to a 10-month low of 50.5 from 51.9, signaling stagflation risks from rising energy costs and subdued demand, compounded by economic sentiment at 96.6 and plunging consumer confidence. ECB held key rates steady with inflation near 2%. Watch final March PMIs this week and late-April flash GDP for resolution catalysts.

Trader sentiment for Eurozone Q1 2026 GDP growth centers on consensus forecasts implying around 0.3% quarter-on-quarter expansion, aligning with ECB staff's March 19 projections of 0.9% annual growth for 2026—down 0.3 percentage points from December amid softening dynamics. Q4 2025 delivered 0.3% q/q growth, but March flash composite PMI slipped to a 10-month low of 50.5 from 51.9, signaling stagflation risks from rising energy costs and subdued demand, compounded by economic sentiment at 96.6 and plunging consumer confidence. ECB held key rates steady with inflation near 2%. Watch final March PMIs this week and late-April flash GDP for resolution catalysts.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Eurozone GDP growth in Q1 2026" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "0.9-1.2%" at 48%, followed by "1.7-2.0%" at 47%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 48¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 48% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Eurozone GDP growth in Q1 2026" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Feb 2, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Eurozone GDP growth in Q1 2026," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Eurozone GDP growth in Q1 2026" is "0.9-1.2%" at 48%, meaning the market assigns a 48% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "1.7-2.0%" at 47%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Eurozone GDP growth in Q1 2026" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.