Recent resilience in global activity amid elevated energy prices from the Middle East conflict has shaped trader sentiment for 2026 world GDP growth, with the 3.1% outcome holding the highest market-implied probability at 29.6% and the ≤2.9% bin close behind at 23.9%. Official forecasts from the IMF, OECD, World Bank, and UN cluster between 2.5% and 3.0%, reflecting downward revisions tied to Brent crude near $100 per barrel and renewed inflation pressures, offset by AI-related capital spending that has buoyed U.S. and Asian export growth. This narrow spread highlights uncertainty over whether policy buffers and technology momentum can sustain momentum above 3% or if prolonged geopolitical strains and higher borrowing costs will pull outcomes lower, with upcoming inflation and trade data likely to influence near-term pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated3.1% 29.6%
≤2.9% 23.9%
3.2% 15.1%
3.7%+ 11.8%
$43,635 Vol.
$43,635 Vol.
Jan 14, 2027
≤2.9%
24%
3.0%
10%
3.1%
30%
3.2%
15%
3.3%
5%
3.4%
4%
3.5%
1%
3.6%
3%
3.7%+
12%
3.1% 29.6%
≤2.9% 23.9%
3.2% 15.1%
3.7%+ 11.8%
$43,635 Vol.
$43,635 Vol.
Jan 14, 2027
≤2.9%
$9,404 Vol.
24%
3.0%
$5,432 Vol.
10%
3.1%
$9,044 Vol.
30%
3.2%
$5,494 Vol.
15%
3.3%
$4,059 Vol.
5%
3.4%
$4,568 Vol.
4%
3.5%
$3,612 Vol.
1%
3.6%
$939 Vol.
3%
3.7%+
$1,084 Vol.
12%
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent resilience in global activity amid elevated energy prices from the Middle East conflict has shaped trader sentiment for 2026 world GDP growth, with the 3.1% outcome holding the highest market-implied probability at 29.6% and the ≤2.9% bin close behind at 23.9%. Official forecasts from the IMF, OECD, World Bank, and UN cluster between 2.5% and 3.0%, reflecting downward revisions tied to Brent crude near $100 per barrel and renewed inflation pressures, offset by AI-related capital spending that has buoyed U.S. and Asian export growth. This narrow spread highlights uncertainty over whether policy buffers and technology momentum can sustain momentum above 3% or if prolonged geopolitical strains and higher borrowing costs will pull outcomes lower, with upcoming inflation and trade data likely to influence near-term pricing.
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Market Opened: Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ET
Volume
$43,635End Date
May 1, 2027Market Opened
Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent resilience in global activity amid elevated energy prices from the Middle East conflict has shaped trader sentiment for 2026 world GDP growth, with the 3.1% outcome holding the highest market-implied probability at 29.6% and the ≤2.9% bin close behind at 23.9%. Official forecasts from the IMF, OECD, World Bank, and UN cluster between 2.5% and 3.0%, reflecting downward revisions tied to Brent crude near $100 per barrel and renewed inflation pressures, offset by AI-related capital spending that has buoyed U.S. and Asian export growth. This narrow spread highlights uncertainty over whether policy buffers and technology momentum can sustain momentum above 3% or if prolonged geopolitical strains and higher borrowing costs will pull outcomes lower, with upcoming inflation and trade data likely to influence near-term pricing.
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$43,635End Date
May 1, 2027Market Opened
Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...Recent resilience in global activity amid elevated energy prices from the Middle East conflict has shaped trader sentiment for 2026 world GDP growth, with the 3.1% outcome holding the highest market-implied probability at 29.6% and the ≤2.9% bin close behind at 23.9%. Official forecasts from the IMF, OECD, World Bank, and UN cluster between 2.5% and 3.0%, reflecting downward revisions tied to Brent crude near $100 per barrel and renewed inflation pressures, offset by AI-related capital spending that has buoyed U.S. and Asian export growth. This narrow spread highlights uncertainty over whether policy buffers and technology momentum can sustain momentum above 3% or if prolonged geopolitical strains and higher borrowing costs will pull outcomes lower, with upcoming inflation and trade data likely to influence near-term pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions