Elevated energy prices stemming from the Middle East conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions represent the dominant factor anchoring 2026 global GDP growth expectations near 3.0% or below. Institutional forecasts cluster in the 2.5–3.0% range, with the IMF projecting 3.0%, the UN at 2.6%, and the World Bank at 2.5%, reflecting higher oil prices near $94–100 per barrel, renewed inflationary pressures, and tighter financial conditions that have offset earlier resilience. AI-driven investment and technology demand provide partial counterbalance, particularly supporting U.S. and select Asian economies, while elevated public debt near 100% of GDP and fiscal constraints limit policy flexibility. The closely matched market-implied probabilities around 3.1% and ≤2.9% underscore uncertainty ahead of the IMF’s October update and further data on energy supply recovery.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated3.1% 29.4%
≤2.9% 24.6%
3.0% 11.1%
3.2% 10.1%
$40,453 Vol.
$40,453 Vol.
Jan 14, 2027
≤2.9%
25%
3.0%
11%
3.1%
29%
3.2%
18%
3.3%
5%
3.4%
4%
3.5%
1%
3.6%
3%
3.7%+
4%
3.1% 29.4%
≤2.9% 24.6%
3.0% 11.1%
3.2% 10.1%
$40,453 Vol.
$40,453 Vol.
Jan 14, 2027
≤2.9%
$9,345 Vol.
25%
3.0%
$5,432 Vol.
11%
3.1%
$8,944 Vol.
29%
3.2%
$2,471 Vol.
18%
3.3%
$4,059 Vol.
5%
3.4%
$4,568 Vol.
4%
3.5%
$3,612 Vol.
1%
3.6%
$939 Vol.
3%
3.7%+
$1,084 Vol.
4%
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Elevated energy prices stemming from the Middle East conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions represent the dominant factor anchoring 2026 global GDP growth expectations near 3.0% or below. Institutional forecasts cluster in the 2.5–3.0% range, with the IMF projecting 3.0%, the UN at 2.6%, and the World Bank at 2.5%, reflecting higher oil prices near $94–100 per barrel, renewed inflationary pressures, and tighter financial conditions that have offset earlier resilience. AI-driven investment and technology demand provide partial counterbalance, particularly supporting U.S. and select Asian economies, while elevated public debt near 100% of GDP and fiscal constraints limit policy flexibility. The closely matched market-implied probabilities around 3.1% and ≤2.9% underscore uncertainty ahead of the IMF’s October update and further data on energy supply recovery.
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Market Opened: Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ET
Volume
$40,453End Date
May 1, 2027Market Opened
Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Elevated energy prices stemming from the Middle East conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions represent the dominant factor anchoring 2026 global GDP growth expectations near 3.0% or below. Institutional forecasts cluster in the 2.5–3.0% range, with the IMF projecting 3.0%, the UN at 2.6%, and the World Bank at 2.5%, reflecting higher oil prices near $94–100 per barrel, renewed inflationary pressures, and tighter financial conditions that have offset earlier resilience. AI-driven investment and technology demand provide partial counterbalance, particularly supporting U.S. and select Asian economies, while elevated public debt near 100% of GDP and fiscal constraints limit policy flexibility. The closely matched market-implied probabilities around 3.1% and ≤2.9% underscore uncertainty ahead of the IMF’s October update and further data on energy supply recovery.
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$40,453End Date
May 1, 2027Market Opened
Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Elevated energy prices stemming from the Middle East conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions represent the dominant factor anchoring 2026 global GDP growth expectations near 3.0% or below. Institutional forecasts cluster in the 2.5–3.0% range, with the IMF projecting 3.0%, the UN at 2.6%, and the World Bank at 2.5%, reflecting higher oil prices near $94–100 per barrel, renewed inflationary pressures, and tighter financial conditions that have offset earlier resilience. AI-driven investment and technology demand provide partial counterbalance, particularly supporting U.S. and select Asian economies, while elevated public debt near 100% of GDP and fiscal constraints limit policy flexibility. The closely matched market-implied probabilities around 3.1% and ≤2.9% underscore uncertainty ahead of the IMF’s October update and further data on energy supply recovery.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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