Recent official forecasts for 2026 global GDP growth cluster tightly around 2.5–3.2 percent, reflecting resilience amid the Iran-related energy price shock and elevated real interest rates. The OECD’s September upgrade to 2.9 percent and PIIE’s early-October projection of 3.2 percent highlight AI-driven investment and U.S. consumer strength as key offsets, while Fitch’s 2.6 percent and FocusEconomics consensus near 2.54 percent underscore downside risks from persistent inflation and China’s domestic weakness. These closely matched Polymarket probabilities around 2.9–3.1 percent capture trader focus on whether AI capital spending and easing energy costs can sustain momentum above the long-run trend, or whether higher Treasury yields and geopolitical supply disruptions will pull outcomes lower. Upcoming Q3 data releases and any further central-bank communications on rate paths remain the primary near-term swing factors.