Trader consensus on Polymarket prices India's 2026 calendar-year CPI inflation around 2-3%, with the 2.25%-2.99% bin leading at 32.5% implied probability amid a tight race against the 1.50%-2.24% outcome at 24.5%, reflecting balanced bets on sustained disinflation versus emerging upside risks. February 2026 CPI accelerated to 3.21%—a 10-month high—from January's 2.75%, propelled by food price surges and bullion volatility under the new 2024 base year, yet core inflation remains subdued near 3.4%. RBI's February MPC anchored sentiment with a benign FY26 projection of 2.1% overall (Q4 at 3.2%), citing ample food supplies and contained core pressures, while signaling FY27 upticks to 4.0%-4.2% in early quarters. Key swing factors include geopolitical oil shocks—Goldman Sachs warns $110 crude could lift CPI to 4.6%—versus RBI's 4% target extension to 2031; March CPI data due April 13 may tip the scales.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated2.25% to 2.99% 28%
1.50% to 2.24% 24%
3.75% to 4.49% 20%
4.50%+ 15%
$33,910 Vol.
$33,910 Vol.
Jan 12, 2027
<0.75%
12%
0.75% to 1.49%
10%
1.50% to 2.24%
24%
2.25% to 2.99%
38%
3.00% to 3.74%
14%
3.75% to 4.49%
20%
4.50%+
15%
2.25% to 2.99% 28%
1.50% to 2.24% 24%
3.75% to 4.49% 20%
4.50%+ 15%
$33,910 Vol.
$33,910 Vol.
Jan 12, 2027
<0.75%
$567 Vol.
12%
0.75% to 1.49%
$0 Vol.
10%
1.50% to 2.24%
$339 Vol.
24%
2.25% to 2.99%
$22,323 Vol.
38%
3.00% to 3.74%
$336 Vol.
14%
3.75% to 4.49%
$0 Vol.
20%
4.50%+
$10,346 Vol.
15%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdfTrader consensus on Polymarket prices India's 2026 calendar-year CPI inflation around 2-3%, with the 2.25%-2.99% bin leading at 32.5% implied probability amid a tight race against the 1.50%-2.24% outcome at 24.5%, reflecting balanced bets on sustained disinflation versus emerging upside risks. February 2026 CPI accelerated to 3.21%—a 10-month high—from January's 2.75%, propelled by food price surges and bullion volatility under the new 2024 base year, yet core inflation remains subdued near 3.4%. RBI's February MPC anchored sentiment with a benign FY26 projection of 2.1% overall (Q4 at 3.2%), citing ample food supplies and contained core pressures, while signaling FY27 upticks to 4.0%-4.2% in early quarters. Key swing factors include geopolitical oil shocks—Goldman Sachs warns $110 crude could lift CPI to 4.6%—versus RBI's 4% target extension to 2031; March CPI data due April 13 may tip the scales.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Market Opened: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Volume
$33,910End Date
Jan 12, 2027Market Opened
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdfTrader consensus on Polymarket prices India's 2026 calendar-year CPI inflation around 2-3%, with the 2.25%-2.99% bin leading at 32.5% implied probability amid a tight race against the 1.50%-2.24% outcome at 24.5%, reflecting balanced bets on sustained disinflation versus emerging upside risks. February 2026 CPI accelerated to 3.21%—a 10-month high—from January's 2.75%, propelled by food price surges and bullion volatility under the new 2024 base year, yet core inflation remains subdued near 3.4%. RBI's February MPC anchored sentiment with a benign FY26 projection of 2.1% overall (Q4 at 3.2%), citing ample food supplies and contained core pressures, while signaling FY27 upticks to 4.0%-4.2% in early quarters. Key swing factors include geopolitical oil shocks—Goldman Sachs warns $110 crude could lift CPI to 4.6%—versus RBI's 4% target extension to 2031; March CPI data due April 13 may tip the scales.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Volume
$33,910End Date
Jan 12, 2027Market Opened
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices India's 2026 calendar-year CPI inflation around 2-3%, with the 2.25%-2.99% bin leading at 32.5% implied probability amid a tight race against the 1.50%-2.24% outcome at 24.5%, reflecting balanced bets on sustained disinflation versus emerging upside risks. February 2026 CPI accelerated to 3.21%—a 10-month high—from January's 2.75%, propelled by food price surges and bullion volatility under the new 2024 base year, yet core inflation remains subdued near 3.4%. RBI's February MPC anchored sentiment with a benign FY26 projection of 2.1% overall (Q4 at 3.2%), citing ample food supplies and contained core pressures, while signaling FY27 upticks to 4.0%-4.2% in early quarters. Key swing factors include geopolitical oil shocks—Goldman Sachs warns $110 crude could lift CPI to 4.6%—versus RBI's 4% target extension to 2031; March CPI data due April 13 may tip the scales.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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