Polymarket traders price a 38.5% implied probability for India's 2026 annual CPI inflation falling in the 2.25%-2.99% band, reflecting Reserve Bank of India (RBI) consensus around its February 2026 Monetary Policy Committee projection of 2.1% for FY26 (ending March 2026), anchored by favorable base effects and moderating food pressures despite volatility. February CPI quickened to 3.21% year-over-year from January's 2.75%—driven by food and beverage inflation amid geopolitical oil supply risks—yet stayed within RBI's 4% target (±2% band), supporting sentiment for sub-3% outcomes with 62% odds below 3.75%. Lower bands at 23.5% for 1.50%-2.24% capture dovish expectations, while upside risks above 4.50% (11.5%) price in persistent supply shocks. March CPI data, due April 13, looms as the next catalyst ahead of the April RBI meeting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated2.25% to 2.99% 28%
1.50% to 2.24% 24%
3.75% to 4.49% 18%
3.00% to 3.74% 14%
$33,897 Vol.
$33,897 Vol.
Jan 12, 2027
<0.75%
8%
0.75% to 1.49%
10%
1.50% to 2.24%
24%
2.25% to 2.99%
38%
3.00% to 3.74%
14%
3.75% to 4.49%
18%
4.50%+
13%
2.25% to 2.99% 28%
1.50% to 2.24% 24%
3.75% to 4.49% 18%
3.00% to 3.74% 14%
$33,897 Vol.
$33,897 Vol.
Jan 12, 2027
<0.75%
$567 Vol.
8%
0.75% to 1.49%
$0 Vol.
10%
1.50% to 2.24%
$339 Vol.
24%
2.25% to 2.99%
$22,323 Vol.
38%
3.00% to 3.74%
$336 Vol.
14%
3.75% to 4.49%
$0 Vol.
18%
4.50%+
$10,332 Vol.
13%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdfPolymarket traders price a 38.5% implied probability for India's 2026 annual CPI inflation falling in the 2.25%-2.99% band, reflecting Reserve Bank of India (RBI) consensus around its February 2026 Monetary Policy Committee projection of 2.1% for FY26 (ending March 2026), anchored by favorable base effects and moderating food pressures despite volatility. February CPI quickened to 3.21% year-over-year from January's 2.75%—driven by food and beverage inflation amid geopolitical oil supply risks—yet stayed within RBI's 4% target (±2% band), supporting sentiment for sub-3% outcomes with 62% odds below 3.75%. Lower bands at 23.5% for 1.50%-2.24% capture dovish expectations, while upside risks above 4.50% (11.5%) price in persistent supply shocks. March CPI data, due April 13, looms as the next catalyst ahead of the April RBI meeting.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Market Opened: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Volume
$33,897End Date
Jan 12, 2027Market Opened
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdfPolymarket traders price a 38.5% implied probability for India's 2026 annual CPI inflation falling in the 2.25%-2.99% band, reflecting Reserve Bank of India (RBI) consensus around its February 2026 Monetary Policy Committee projection of 2.1% for FY26 (ending March 2026), anchored by favorable base effects and moderating food pressures despite volatility. February CPI quickened to 3.21% year-over-year from January's 2.75%—driven by food and beverage inflation amid geopolitical oil supply risks—yet stayed within RBI's 4% target (±2% band), supporting sentiment for sub-3% outcomes with 62% odds below 3.75%. Lower bands at 23.5% for 1.50%-2.24% capture dovish expectations, while upside risks above 4.50% (11.5%) price in persistent supply shocks. March CPI data, due April 13, looms as the next catalyst ahead of the April RBI meeting.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Volume
$33,897End Date
Jan 12, 2027Market Opened
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a 38.5% implied probability for India's 2026 annual CPI inflation falling in the 2.25%-2.99% band, reflecting Reserve Bank of India (RBI) consensus around its February 2026 Monetary Policy Committee projection of 2.1% for FY26 (ending March 2026), anchored by favorable base effects and moderating food pressures despite volatility. February CPI quickened to 3.21% year-over-year from January's 2.75%—driven by food and beverage inflation amid geopolitical oil supply risks—yet stayed within RBI's 4% target (±2% band), supporting sentiment for sub-3% outcomes with 62% odds below 3.75%. Lower bands at 23.5% for 1.50%-2.24% capture dovish expectations, while upside risks above 4.50% (11.5%) price in persistent supply shocks. March CPI data, due April 13, looms as the next catalyst ahead of the April RBI meeting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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