Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a razor-thin contest for China Q1 2026 year-over-year GDP growth, pricing 52.5% implied probability into the 5.0-5.5% band versus 43.5% for 4.5-5.0%, driven by robust March manufacturing PMI expansion to 50.4%—its strongest in a year and beating expectations—plus January-February surges in industrial output (6.3%), exports (21.8%), and fixed-asset investment reversing prior declines. These gains signal manufacturing and trade resilience amid high-tech sector momentum, yet persistent property weakness and tepid retail sales growth (2.8%) anchor expectations near economist consensus of around 4.8%, consistent with Beijing's full-year 4.5-5% target. The National Bureau of Statistics release on April 16 could resolve the deadlock.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated5.0-5.5% 53%
4.5-5.0% 44%
5.5-6.0% <1%
4.0-4.5% <1%
$246,069 Vol.
$246,069 Vol.
Apr 17, 2026
<3.5%
<1%
3.5-4.0%
<1%
4.0-4.5%
1%
4.5-5.0%
44%
5.0-5.5%
53%
5.5-6.0%
1%
6.0%+
<1%
5.0-5.5% 53%
4.5-5.0% 44%
5.5-6.0% <1%
4.0-4.5% <1%
$246,069 Vol.
$246,069 Vol.
Apr 17, 2026
<3.5%
$19,554 Vol.
<1%
3.5-4.0%
$56,073 Vol.
<1%
4.0-4.5%
$37,459 Vol.
1%
4.5-5.0%
$23,744 Vol.
44%
5.0-5.5%
$24,638 Vol.
53%
5.5-6.0%
$58,849 Vol.
1%
6.0%+
$25,753 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 17, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects a razor-thin contest for China Q1 2026 year-over-year GDP growth, pricing 52.5% implied probability into the 5.0-5.5% band versus 43.5% for 4.5-5.0%, driven by robust March manufacturing PMI expansion to 50.4%—its strongest in a year and beating expectations—plus January-February surges in industrial output (6.3%), exports (21.8%), and fixed-asset investment reversing prior declines. These gains signal manufacturing and trade resilience amid high-tech sector momentum, yet persistent property weakness and tepid retail sales growth (2.8%) anchor expectations near economist consensus of around 4.8%, consistent with Beijing's full-year 4.5-5% target. The National Bureau of Statistics release on April 16 could resolve the deadlock.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 17, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Market Opened: Jan 21, 2026, 7:11 PM ET
Volume
$246,069End Date
Apr 17, 2026Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 7:11 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 17, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects a razor-thin contest for China Q1 2026 year-over-year GDP growth, pricing 52.5% implied probability into the 5.0-5.5% band versus 43.5% for 4.5-5.0%, driven by robust March manufacturing PMI expansion to 50.4%—its strongest in a year and beating expectations—plus January-February surges in industrial output (6.3%), exports (21.8%), and fixed-asset investment reversing prior declines. These gains signal manufacturing and trade resilience amid high-tech sector momentum, yet persistent property weakness and tepid retail sales growth (2.8%) anchor expectations near economist consensus of around 4.8%, consistent with Beijing's full-year 4.5-5% target. The National Bureau of Statistics release on April 16 could resolve the deadlock.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for April 17, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Volume
$246,069End Date
Apr 17, 2026Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 7:11 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a razor-thin contest for China Q1 2026 year-over-year GDP growth, pricing 52.5% implied probability into the 5.0-5.5% band versus 43.5% for 4.5-5.0%, driven by robust March manufacturing PMI expansion to 50.4%—its strongest in a year and beating expectations—plus January-February surges in industrial output (6.3%), exports (21.8%), and fixed-asset investment reversing prior declines. These gains signal manufacturing and trade resilience amid high-tech sector momentum, yet persistent property weakness and tepid retail sales growth (2.8%) anchor expectations near economist consensus of around 4.8%, consistent with Beijing's full-year 4.5-5% target. The National Bureau of Statistics release on April 16 could resolve the deadlock.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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