Polymarket traders assign a 42.5% implied probability to Japan Q1 2026 GDP growth of 0.0–0.2% quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted, reflecting fading momentum after January's robust exports and factory output, as evidenced by February industrial production contracting 2.1% month-on-month—its first drop in three months—and retail sales slipping 0.2%. March manufacturing PMI cooled to a three-month low of 51.4 amid Middle East energy disruptions from the Iran conflict, tempering capex-driven optimism from Q4 2025's upgraded 1.3% annualized expansion. Business sentiment per the BOJ's March Tankan survey improved slightly to 17 for large manufacturers, bolstering 32.5% odds for 0.9–1.1% growth, though trader consensus anticipates subdued private consumption and exports pressured by a firmer yen. Preliminary GDP data due mid-April could shift positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated0.6–0.8% 29%
≤-0.4% 9%
-0.3– -0.1% 5%
0.3–0.5% 2.4%
NEW
NEW
May 19, 2026
≤-0.4%
17%
-0.3– -0.1%
20%
0.0–0.2%
45%
0.3–0.5%
2%
0.6–0.8%
29%
0.9–1.1%
41%
1.2%+
2%
0.6–0.8% 29%
≤-0.4% 9%
-0.3– -0.1% 5%
0.3–0.5% 2.4%
NEW
NEW
May 19, 2026
≤-0.4%
$114 Vol.
17%
-0.3– -0.1%
$7 Vol.
20%
0.0–0.2%
$61 Vol.
45%
0.3–0.5%
$26 Vol.
2%
0.6–0.8%
$12 Vol.
29%
0.9–1.1%
$15 Vol.
41%
1.2%+
$22 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlPolymarket traders assign a 42.5% implied probability to Japan Q1 2026 GDP growth of 0.0–0.2% quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted, reflecting fading momentum after January's robust exports and factory output, as evidenced by February industrial production contracting 2.1% month-on-month—its first drop in three months—and retail sales slipping 0.2%. March manufacturing PMI cooled to a three-month low of 51.4 amid Middle East energy disruptions from the Iran conflict, tempering capex-driven optimism from Q4 2025's upgraded 1.3% annualized expansion. Business sentiment per the BOJ's March Tankan survey improved slightly to 17 for large manufacturers, bolstering 32.5% odds for 0.9–1.1% growth, though trader consensus anticipates subdued private consumption and exports pressured by a firmer yen. Preliminary GDP data due mid-April could shift positioning.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Market Opened: Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
Volume
$257End Date
May 19, 2026Market Opened
Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlPolymarket traders assign a 42.5% implied probability to Japan Q1 2026 GDP growth of 0.0–0.2% quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted, reflecting fading momentum after January's robust exports and factory output, as evidenced by February industrial production contracting 2.1% month-on-month—its first drop in three months—and retail sales slipping 0.2%. March manufacturing PMI cooled to a three-month low of 51.4 amid Middle East energy disruptions from the Iran conflict, tempering capex-driven optimism from Q4 2025's upgraded 1.3% annualized expansion. Business sentiment per the BOJ's March Tankan survey improved slightly to 17 for large manufacturers, bolstering 32.5% odds for 0.9–1.1% growth, though trader consensus anticipates subdued private consumption and exports pressured by a firmer yen. Preliminary GDP data due mid-April could shift positioning.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Volume
$257End Date
May 19, 2026Market Opened
Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders assign a 42.5% implied probability to Japan Q1 2026 GDP growth of 0.0–0.2% quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted, reflecting fading momentum after January's robust exports and factory output, as evidenced by February industrial production contracting 2.1% month-on-month—its first drop in three months—and retail sales slipping 0.2%. March manufacturing PMI cooled to a three-month low of 51.4 amid Middle East energy disruptions from the Iran conflict, tempering capex-driven optimism from Q4 2025's upgraded 1.3% annualized expansion. Business sentiment per the BOJ's March Tankan survey improved slightly to 17 for large manufacturers, bolstering 32.5% odds for 0.9–1.1% growth, though trader consensus anticipates subdued private consumption and exports pressured by a firmer yen. Preliminary GDP data due mid-April could shift positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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