Recent surge in Mexico's headline inflation to 4.63% in the first half of March—up from 4.02% in February and propelled by non-core components—has traders closely splitting bets across 3.50%-4.99% bins for 2026 annual rates, with 4.00%-4.49% leading at 31.5%, 4.50%-4.99% at 30.5%, and 3.50%-3.99% at 28.5%. Banxico's March 26 decision to cut the policy rate 25 basis points to 6.75%, despite the uptick, underscores confidence in stable core inflation around 4.5% and a projected Q4 2026 headline reading of 3.5%, differentiating lower bins. The contest hinges on non-core transience versus upside risks from trade policies, geopolitical tensions, and peso depreciation; full March CPI and May Banxico meeting loom as key catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated4.00% to 4.49% 32%
4.50% to 4.99% 31%
3.50% to 3.99% 29%
5.00% to 5.49% 26.3%
$33,909 Vol.
$33,909 Vol.
Jan 8, 2027
<2.50%
5%
2.50% to 2.99%
3%
3.00% to 3.49%
18%
3.50% to 3.99%
29%
4.00% to 4.49%
32%
4.50% to 4.99%
31%
5.00% to 5.49%
17%
5.50%+
8%
4.00% to 4.49% 32%
4.50% to 4.99% 31%
3.50% to 3.99% 29%
5.00% to 5.49% 26.3%
$33,909 Vol.
$33,909 Vol.
Jan 8, 2027
<2.50%
$0 Vol.
5%
2.50% to 2.99%
$0 Vol.
3%
3.00% to 3.49%
$25,641 Vol.
18%
3.50% to 3.99%
$250 Vol.
29%
4.00% to 4.49%
$346 Vol.
32%
4.50% to 4.99%
$3,000 Vol.
31%
5.00% to 5.49%
$356 Vol.
17%
5.50%+
$4,316 Vol.
8%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendarioRecent surge in Mexico's headline inflation to 4.63% in the first half of March—up from 4.02% in February and propelled by non-core components—has traders closely splitting bets across 3.50%-4.99% bins for 2026 annual rates, with 4.00%-4.49% leading at 31.5%, 4.50%-4.99% at 30.5%, and 3.50%-3.99% at 28.5%. Banxico's March 26 decision to cut the policy rate 25 basis points to 6.75%, despite the uptick, underscores confidence in stable core inflation around 4.5% and a projected Q4 2026 headline reading of 3.5%, differentiating lower bins. The contest hinges on non-core transience versus upside risks from trade policies, geopolitical tensions, and peso depreciation; full March CPI and May Banxico meeting loom as key catalysts.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Market Opened: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Volume
$33,909End Date
Jan 8, 2027Market Opened
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendarioRecent surge in Mexico's headline inflation to 4.63% in the first half of March—up from 4.02% in February and propelled by non-core components—has traders closely splitting bets across 3.50%-4.99% bins for 2026 annual rates, with 4.00%-4.49% leading at 31.5%, 4.50%-4.99% at 30.5%, and 3.50%-3.99% at 28.5%. Banxico's March 26 decision to cut the policy rate 25 basis points to 6.75%, despite the uptick, underscores confidence in stable core inflation around 4.5% and a projected Q4 2026 headline reading of 3.5%, differentiating lower bins. The contest hinges on non-core transience versus upside risks from trade policies, geopolitical tensions, and peso depreciation; full March CPI and May Banxico meeting loom as key catalysts.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Volume
$33,909End Date
Jan 8, 2027Market Opened
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent surge in Mexico's headline inflation to 4.63% in the first half of March—up from 4.02% in February and propelled by non-core components—has traders closely splitting bets across 3.50%-4.99% bins for 2026 annual rates, with 4.00%-4.49% leading at 31.5%, 4.50%-4.99% at 30.5%, and 3.50%-3.99% at 28.5%. Banxico's March 26 decision to cut the policy rate 25 basis points to 6.75%, despite the uptick, underscores confidence in stable core inflation around 4.5% and a projected Q4 2026 headline reading of 3.5%, differentiating lower bins. The contest hinges on non-core transience versus upside risks from trade policies, geopolitical tensions, and peso depreciation; full March CPI and May Banxico meeting loom as key catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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