Polymarket traders price Mexico's 2026 annual inflation in a tight race among the 4.00%-4.49% (30.5%), 3.50%-3.99% (28.0%), and 4.50%-4.99% (27.5%) bins, reflecting uncertainty over whether recent headline acceleration—reaching 4.02% in February and 4.63% in early March—signals persistent pressures or temporary factors amid Banxico's 3% target (2%-4% range). Core inflation held steady near 4.5%, supporting the central bank's 3.5% Q4 2026 forecast despite a surprise 25-basis-point rate cut to 6.75% on March 26, while private economist consensus hovers at 3.9%-4.2% end-year. Key differentiators include upcoming fortnightly INEGI CPI releases, oil price volatility, and Banxico's May meeting, with wage growth and U.S. spillover risks as potential swing factors.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated4.00% to 4.49% 29%
4.50% to 4.99% 28%
3.50% to 3.99% 27%
3.00% to 3.49% 25.7%
$33,904 Vol.
$33,904 Vol.
Jan 8, 2027
<2.50%
5%
2.50% to 2.99%
3%
3.00% to 3.49%
26%
3.50% to 3.99%
27%
4.00% to 4.49%
29%
4.50% to 4.99%
28%
5.00% to 5.49%
13%
5.50%+
8%
4.00% to 4.49% 29%
4.50% to 4.99% 28%
3.50% to 3.99% 27%
3.00% to 3.49% 25.7%
$33,904 Vol.
$33,904 Vol.
Jan 8, 2027
<2.50%
$0 Vol.
5%
2.50% to 2.99%
$0 Vol.
3%
3.00% to 3.49%
$25,641 Vol.
26%
3.50% to 3.99%
$250 Vol.
27%
4.00% to 4.49%
$346 Vol.
29%
4.50% to 4.99%
$2,995 Vol.
28%
5.00% to 5.49%
$356 Vol.
13%
5.50%+
$4,316 Vol.
8%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendarioPolymarket traders price Mexico's 2026 annual inflation in a tight race among the 4.00%-4.49% (30.5%), 3.50%-3.99% (28.0%), and 4.50%-4.99% (27.5%) bins, reflecting uncertainty over whether recent headline acceleration—reaching 4.02% in February and 4.63% in early March—signals persistent pressures or temporary factors amid Banxico's 3% target (2%-4% range). Core inflation held steady near 4.5%, supporting the central bank's 3.5% Q4 2026 forecast despite a surprise 25-basis-point rate cut to 6.75% on March 26, while private economist consensus hovers at 3.9%-4.2% end-year. Key differentiators include upcoming fortnightly INEGI CPI releases, oil price volatility, and Banxico's May meeting, with wage growth and U.S. spillover risks as potential swing factors.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Market Opened: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Volume
$33,904End Date
Jan 8, 2027Market Opened
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendarioPolymarket traders price Mexico's 2026 annual inflation in a tight race among the 4.00%-4.49% (30.5%), 3.50%-3.99% (28.0%), and 4.50%-4.99% (27.5%) bins, reflecting uncertainty over whether recent headline acceleration—reaching 4.02% in February and 4.63% in early March—signals persistent pressures or temporary factors amid Banxico's 3% target (2%-4% range). Core inflation held steady near 4.5%, supporting the central bank's 3.5% Q4 2026 forecast despite a surprise 25-basis-point rate cut to 6.75% on March 26, while private economist consensus hovers at 3.9%-4.2% end-year. Key differentiators include upcoming fortnightly INEGI CPI releases, oil price volatility, and Banxico's May meeting, with wage growth and U.S. spillover risks as potential swing factors.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Volume
$33,904End Date
Jan 8, 2027Market Opened
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price Mexico's 2026 annual inflation in a tight race among the 4.00%-4.49% (30.5%), 3.50%-3.99% (28.0%), and 4.50%-4.99% (27.5%) bins, reflecting uncertainty over whether recent headline acceleration—reaching 4.02% in February and 4.63% in early March—signals persistent pressures or temporary factors amid Banxico's 3% target (2%-4% range). Core inflation held steady near 4.5%, supporting the central bank's 3.5% Q4 2026 forecast despite a surprise 25-basis-point rate cut to 6.75% on March 26, while private economist consensus hovers at 3.9%-4.2% end-year. Key differentiators include upcoming fortnightly INEGI CPI releases, oil price volatility, and Banxico's May meeting, with wage growth and U.S. spillover risks as potential swing factors.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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