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Economy·Housing

What will the median home value in the San Francisco Metro area be on April 30?

Market icon
Economy·Housing

What will the median home value in the San Francisco Metro area be on April 30?

<1.154m 50%

1.154 - 1.172m 50%

1.172 - 1.19m 50%

>1.262m 50%

Polymarket
NEW

<1.154m 50%

1.154 - 1.172m 50%

1.172 - 1.19m 50%

>1.262m 50%

Polymarket
NEW

<1.154m

$0 Vol.

50%

1.154 - 1.172m

$0 Vol.

50%

1.172 - 1.19m

$0 Vol.

50%

1.19 - 1.208m

$0 Vol.

48%

1.208 - 1.226m

$0 Vol.

46%

1.226 - 1.244m

$0 Vol.

47%

1.244 - 1.262m

$0 Vol.

49%

>1.262m

$0 Vol.

50%

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on April 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 30, 2026. If no data for April 30 is released by May 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/28)Polymarket traders' even split across $1.15M–$1.26M bins for San Francisco metro median home value on April 30 reflects razor-thin consensus amid a spring housing surge fueled by AI-driven tech demand and inventory plunging 37–40% year-over-year. February Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) for the San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward metro stood at $1.116 million, down 2.3% annually, but March sales medians exploded to $1.23 million overall and $1.96 million for single-family homes, up 21–23%, signaling potential upward revision in the upcoming March ZHVI. Key swing factors include sustained bidding wars (average 12 days on market), mortgage rates hovering near 6.5–7%, and spring listing uptick risks, with trader capital evenly pricing modest appreciation versus stabilization.

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on April 30, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 30, 2026. If no data for April 30 is released by May 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/28)
Volume
$0
End Date
Apr 30, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 30, 2026, 6:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on April 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 30, 2026. If no data for April 30 is released by May 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/28)
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on April 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 30, 2026. If no data for April 30 is released by May 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/28)Polymarket traders' even split across $1.15M–$1.26M bins for San Francisco metro median home value on April 30 reflects razor-thin consensus amid a spring housing surge fueled by AI-driven tech demand and inventory plunging 37–40% year-over-year. February Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) for the San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward metro stood at $1.116 million, down 2.3% annually, but March sales medians exploded to $1.23 million overall and $1.96 million for single-family homes, up 21–23%, signaling potential upward revision in the upcoming March ZHVI. Key swing factors include sustained bidding wars (average 12 days on market), mortgage rates hovering near 6.5–7%, and spring listing uptick risks, with trader capital evenly pricing modest appreciation versus stabilization.

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on April 30, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 30, 2026. If no data for April 30 is released by May 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/28)
Volume
$0
End Date
Apr 30, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 30, 2026, 6:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on April 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 30, 2026. If no data for April 30 is released by May 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/28)

Related

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Will the median home value in the Austin, Texas metro area be less than $415,000 on April 30?

51%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"What will the median home value in the San Francisco Metro area be on April 30?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "<1.154m" at 50%, followed by "1.154 - 1.172m" at 50%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 50¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 50% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"What will the median home value in the San Francisco Metro area be on April 30?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 30, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "What will the median home value in the San Francisco Metro area be on April 30?," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "What will the median home value in the San Francisco Metro area be on April 30?" is "<1.154m" at 50%, meaning the market assigns a 50% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "1.154 - 1.172m" at 50%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "What will the median home value in the San Francisco Metro area be on April 30?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.