Market icon
Economy·Real Estate·

Asked by

Parcl image

Parcl

What will the median home value in the US be on April 1?

Market icon
Economy·Real Estate·

Asked by

Parcl image

Parcl

What will the median home value in the US be on April 1?

<420k 25.8%

432.5 - 435k 25.7%

427.5 - 430k 12.0%

422.5 - 425k 11%

Polymarket

$16,247 Vol.

<420k 25.8%

432.5 - 435k 25.7%

427.5 - 430k 12.0%

422.5 - 425k 11%

Polymarket

$16,247 Vol.

<420k

$0 Vol.

26%

420 - 422.5k

$0 Vol.

22%

422.5 - 425k

$6,356 Vol.

31%

425 - 427.5k

$7,494 Vol.

52%

427.5 - 430k

$0 Vol.

16%

430 - 432.5k

$0 Vol.

3%

432.5 - 435k

$2,396 Vol.

26%

>435k

$0 Vol.

3%

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on April 1, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 1, 2026. If no data for April 1 is released by April 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/17)Traders on Polymarket price a median U.S. home value of 425,000–427,500 on April 1 at 49.5% implied probability, reflecting Zillow's latest February Home Value Index (ZHVI) at approximately $425,000—up just 0.1% month-over-month amid persistent 6.8–7% 30-year mortgage rates and historically low housing inventory. This modest appreciation trajectory, supported by 4.5% year-over-year gains despite affordability strains, underpins the narrow leading bin, while the 31.2% odds on below 420,000 capture concerns over softening buyer demand signaled by a 4% drop in existing-home sales per NAR's February report. Consensus anticipates flat-to-slight March growth ahead of the next Zillow release, with Federal Reserve policy and upcoming jobless claims data as key swing factors for resolution.

Traders on Polymarket price a median U.S. home value of 425,000–427,500 on April 1 at 49.5% implied probability, reflecting Zillow's latest February Home Value Index (ZHVI) at approximately $425,000—up just 0.1% month-over-month amid persistent 6.8–7% 30-year mortgage rates and historically low housing inventory. This modest appreciation trajectory, supported by 4.5% year-over-year gains despite affordability strains, underpins the narrow leading bin, while the 31.2% odds on below 420,000 capture concerns over softening buyer demand signaled by a 4% drop in existing-home sales per NAR's February report. Consensus anticipates flat-to-slight March growth ahead of the next Zillow release, with Federal Reserve policy and upcoming jobless claims data as key swing factors for resolution.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on April 1, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 1, 2026. If no data for April 1 is released by April 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/17)Traders on Polymarket price a median U.S. home value of 425,000–427,500 on April 1 at 49.5% implied probability, reflecting Zillow's latest February Home Value Index (ZHVI) at approximately $425,000—up just 0.1% month-over-month amid persistent 6.8–7% 30-year mortgage rates and historically low housing inventory. This modest appreciation trajectory, supported by 4.5% year-over-year gains despite affordability strains, underpins the narrow leading bin, while the 31.2% odds on below 420,000 capture concerns over softening buyer demand signaled by a 4% drop in existing-home sales per NAR's February report. Consensus anticipates flat-to-slight March growth ahead of the next Zillow release, with Federal Reserve policy and upcoming jobless claims data as key swing factors for resolution.

Traders on Polymarket price a median U.S. home value of 425,000–427,500 on April 1 at 49.5% implied probability, reflecting Zillow's latest February Home Value Index (ZHVI) at approximately $425,000—up just 0.1% month-over-month amid persistent 6.8–7% 30-year mortgage rates and historically low housing inventory. This modest appreciation trajectory, supported by 4.5% year-over-year gains despite affordability strains, underpins the narrow leading bin, while the 31.2% odds on below 420,000 capture concerns over softening buyer demand signaled by a 4% drop in existing-home sales per NAR's February report. Consensus anticipates flat-to-slight March growth ahead of the next Zillow release, with Federal Reserve policy and upcoming jobless claims data as key swing factors for resolution.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"What will the median home value in the US be on April 1?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "425 - 427.5k" at 52%, followed by "422.5 - 425k" at 31%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 52¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 52% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "What will the median home value in the US be on April 1?" has generated $16.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 28, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "What will the median home value in the US be on April 1?," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "What will the median home value in the US be on April 1?" is "425 - 427.5k" at 52%, meaning the market assigns a 52% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "422.5 - 425k" at 31%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "What will the median home value in the US be on April 1?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.