Market icon
Economy·Housing·

Asked by

Parcl image

Parcl

What will the median home value in Chicago be on April 1?

Market icon
Economy·Housing·

Asked by

Parcl image

Parcl

What will the median home value in Chicago be on April 1?

327 - 330k 48.3%

324 - 327k 21%

336 - 339k 17.2%

330 - 333k 15.8%

Polymarket

$11,946 Vol.

327 - 330k 48.3%

324 - 327k 21%

336 - 339k 17.2%

330 - 333k 15.8%

Polymarket

$11,946 Vol.

<321k

$209 Vol.

7%

321 - 324k

$2,674 Vol.

14%

324 - 327k

$842 Vol.

21%

327 - 330k

$6,833 Vol.

48%

330 - 333k

$821 Vol.

16%

333 - 336k

$0 Vol.

1%

336 - 339k

$210 Vol.

17%

>339k

$357 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in Chicago on April 1, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for Chicago, IL (Parcl_ID: 2899845). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1500 square feet, which is the median home size in Chicago. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 1, 2026. If no data for April 1 is released by April 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/22)Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 47.9% implied probability for Chicago's median home value falling in the $327,000–$330,000 range on April 1, anchored by Zillow's latest Home Value Index showing $328,462 for February 2025—a modest 0.2% monthly decline amid persistent 6.8%–7% mortgage rates curbing buyer demand. Elevated inventory levels, up 15% year-over-year per Redfin data released last week, signal softening price momentum despite low new listings, while Chicago's unemployment rate holding steady at 4.8% supports wage growth but not aggressive bidding. Recent trader positioning reflects caution on spring rebound, with lower bins gaining traction after national housing starts fell 2.4% in February data; resolution hinges on March sales volume reported early next month.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 47.9% implied probability for Chicago's median home value falling in the $327,000–$330,000 range on April 1, anchored by Zillow's latest Home Value Index showing $328,462 for February 2025—a modest 0.2% monthly decline amid persistent 6.8%–7% mortgage rates curbing buyer demand. Elevated inventory levels, up 15% year-over-year per Redfin data released last week, signal softening price momentum despite low new listings, while Chicago's unemployment rate holding steady at 4.8% supports wage growth but not aggressive bidding. Recent trader positioning reflects caution on spring rebound, with lower bins gaining traction after national housing starts fell 2.4% in February data; resolution hinges on March sales volume reported early next month.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in Chicago on April 1, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for Chicago, IL (Parcl_ID: 2899845). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1500 square feet, which is the median home size in Chicago. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 1, 2026. If no data for April 1 is released by April 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/22)Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 47.9% implied probability for Chicago's median home value falling in the $327,000–$330,000 range on April 1, anchored by Zillow's latest Home Value Index showing $328,462 for February 2025—a modest 0.2% monthly decline amid persistent 6.8%–7% mortgage rates curbing buyer demand. Elevated inventory levels, up 15% year-over-year per Redfin data released last week, signal softening price momentum despite low new listings, while Chicago's unemployment rate holding steady at 4.8% supports wage growth but not aggressive bidding. Recent trader positioning reflects caution on spring rebound, with lower bins gaining traction after national housing starts fell 2.4% in February data; resolution hinges on March sales volume reported early next month.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 47.9% implied probability for Chicago's median home value falling in the $327,000–$330,000 range on April 1, anchored by Zillow's latest Home Value Index showing $328,462 for February 2025—a modest 0.2% monthly decline amid persistent 6.8%–7% mortgage rates curbing buyer demand. Elevated inventory levels, up 15% year-over-year per Redfin data released last week, signal softening price momentum despite low new listings, while Chicago's unemployment rate holding steady at 4.8% supports wage growth but not aggressive bidding. Recent trader positioning reflects caution on spring rebound, with lower bins gaining traction after national housing starts fell 2.4% in February data; resolution hinges on March sales volume reported early next month.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

Related

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Will the median home value in the US be between $425,000 and $427,500 on April 1?

50%
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Will the median home value in New York City be between $580,000 and $585,000 on April 1?

38%
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Will the median home value in the San Francisco Metro area be between $1,175,000 and $1,185,000 on April 1?

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Frequently Asked Questions

"What will the median home value in Chicago be on April 1?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "327 - 330k" at 48%, followed by "324 - 327k" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 48¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 48% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "What will the median home value in Chicago be on April 1?" has generated $11.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 27, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "What will the median home value in Chicago be on April 1?," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "What will the median home value in Chicago be on April 1?" is "327 - 330k" at 48%, meaning the market assigns a 48% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "324 - 327k" at 21%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "What will the median home value in Chicago be on April 1?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.