Market icon
Economy·Housing·

Asked by

Parcl image

Parcl

What will the median home value in the Austin, Texas Metro area be on April 1?

Market icon
Economy·Housing·

Asked by

Parcl image

Parcl

What will the median home value in the Austin, Texas Metro area be on April 1?

415 - 420k 68.0%

410 - 415k 13.8%

420 - 425k 12.3%

405 - 410k 12%

Polymarket
NEW

415 - 420k 68.0%

410 - 415k 13.8%

420 - 425k 12.3%

405 - 410k 12%

Polymarket
NEW

<400k

$388 Vol.

5%

400 - 405k

$610 Vol.

3%

405 - 410k

$2,059 Vol.

8%

410 - 415k

$2,903 Vol.

21%

415 - 420k

$798 Vol.

57%

420 - 425k

$1,006 Vol.

12%

>425k

$276 Vol.

6%

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the Austin, Texas Metro area on April 1, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Austin, Texas Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2887289). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2100 square feet, which is the median home size in the Austin, Texas Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 1, 2026. If no data for April 1 is released by April 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/19)Trader consensus on Polymarket prices the Austin-Round Rock metro median home value on April 1 in the $415,000–$420,000 range at 56% implied probability, anchored by February 2026 Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) of $424,642, down 5.9% year-over-year amid persistent softening. Elevated inventory at 6.5 months' supply and 91-day average days on market have extended buyer leverage, with Unlock MLS reporting February median sales at $412,000, a 3.6% annual decline and price-per-square-foot drops. Recent catalysts include a 16.2% surge in pending contracts and 14% of homes selling over list in March, signaling nascent stabilization, though resolution proximity amplifies sensitivity to final March data.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices the Austin-Round Rock metro median home value on April 1 in the $415,000–$420,000 range at 56% implied probability, anchored by February 2026 Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) of $424,642, down 5.9% year-over-year amid persistent softening. Elevated inventory at 6.5 months' supply and 91-day average days on market have extended buyer leverage, with Unlock MLS reporting February median sales at $412,000, a 3.6% annual decline and price-per-square-foot drops. Recent catalysts include a 16.2% surge in pending contracts and 14% of homes selling over list in March, signaling nascent stabilization, though resolution proximity amplifies sensitivity to final March data.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the Austin, Texas Metro area on April 1, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Austin, Texas Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2887289). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2100 square feet, which is the median home size in the Austin, Texas Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 1, 2026. If no data for April 1 is released by April 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/19)Trader consensus on Polymarket prices the Austin-Round Rock metro median home value on April 1 in the $415,000–$420,000 range at 56% implied probability, anchored by February 2026 Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) of $424,642, down 5.9% year-over-year amid persistent softening. Elevated inventory at 6.5 months' supply and 91-day average days on market have extended buyer leverage, with Unlock MLS reporting February median sales at $412,000, a 3.6% annual decline and price-per-square-foot drops. Recent catalysts include a 16.2% surge in pending contracts and 14% of homes selling over list in March, signaling nascent stabilization, though resolution proximity amplifies sensitivity to final March data.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices the Austin-Round Rock metro median home value on April 1 in the $415,000–$420,000 range at 56% implied probability, anchored by February 2026 Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) of $424,642, down 5.9% year-over-year amid persistent softening. Elevated inventory at 6.5 months' supply and 91-day average days on market have extended buyer leverage, with Unlock MLS reporting February median sales at $412,000, a 3.6% annual decline and price-per-square-foot drops. Recent catalysts include a 16.2% surge in pending contracts and 14% of homes selling over list in March, signaling nascent stabilization, though resolution proximity amplifies sensitivity to final March data.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"What will the median home value in the Austin, Texas Metro area be on April 1?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "415 - 420k" at 57%, followed by "410 - 415k" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 57¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 57% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"What will the median home value in the Austin, Texas Metro area be on April 1?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Feb 28, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "What will the median home value in the Austin, Texas Metro area be on April 1?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "What will the median home value in the Austin, Texas Metro area be on April 1?" is "415 - 420k" at 57%, meaning the market assigns a 57% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "410 - 415k" at 21%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "What will the median home value in the Austin, Texas Metro area be on April 1?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.