Trader consensus on Polymarket prices the 415k–420k bin at 49.5% implied probability for Austin metro median home value on April 1, reflecting stabilization around late-March MLS data where median sold prices hit $418,000—up slightly from February's $412,000 (Austin Board of Realtors) but down 1.6–3.6% year-over-year. Rising inventory, up 6.6% recently, has empowered buyers and extended days on market, tempering price growth amid persistent elevated mortgage rates above 6.5%. Zillow's February ZHVI for Austin-Round Rock stands at $424,642 (down 5.9% YoY), but traders anticipate modest softening or metric-specific alignment near current sales medians, with resolution imminent and no major catalysts in the final days.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedWhat will the median home value in the Austin, Texas Metro area be on April 1?
What will the median home value in the Austin, Texas Metro area be on April 1?
410 - 415k 12.0%
405 - 410k 12%
420 - 425k 11.8%
>425k 5.7%
<400k
1%
400 - 405k
2%
405 - 410k
9%
410 - 415k
12%
415 - 420k
57%
420 - 425k
12%
>425k
6%
410 - 415k 12.0%
405 - 410k 12%
420 - 425k 11.8%
>425k 5.7%
<400k
1%
400 - 405k
2%
405 - 410k
9%
410 - 415k
12%
415 - 420k
57%
420 - 425k
12%
>425k
6%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Austin, Texas Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2887289). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2100 square feet, which is the median home size in the Austin, Texas Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 1, 2026. If no data for April 1 is released by April 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/19)
Market Opened: Feb 27, 2026, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Austin, Texas Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2887289). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2100 square feet, which is the median home size in the Austin, Texas Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 1, 2026. If no data for April 1 is released by April 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/19)
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices the 415k–420k bin at 49.5% implied probability for Austin metro median home value on April 1, reflecting stabilization around late-March MLS data where median sold prices hit $418,000—up slightly from February's $412,000 (Austin Board of Realtors) but down 1.6–3.6% year-over-year. Rising inventory, up 6.6% recently, has empowered buyers and extended days on market, tempering price growth amid persistent elevated mortgage rates above 6.5%. Zillow's February ZHVI for Austin-Round Rock stands at $424,642 (down 5.9% YoY), but traders anticipate modest softening or metric-specific alignment near current sales medians, with resolution imminent and no major catalysts in the final days.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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