Market icon
Economy·Housing·

Asked by

Parcl image

Parcl

What will the median home value in the Austin, Texas Metro area be on April 1?

Market icon
Economy·Housing·

Asked by

Parcl image

Parcl

What will the median home value in the Austin, Texas Metro area be on April 1?

410 - 415k 12.0%

405 - 410k 12%

420 - 425k 11.8%

>425k 5.7%

Polymarket
NEW

410 - 415k 12.0%

405 - 410k 12%

420 - 425k 11.8%

>425k 5.7%

Polymarket
NEW

<400k

$282 Vol.

1%

400 - 405k

$610 Vol.

2%

405 - 410k

$2,059 Vol.

9%

410 - 415k

$2,898 Vol.

12%

415 - 420k

$482 Vol.

57%

420 - 425k

$573 Vol.

12%

>425k

$276 Vol.

6%

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the Austin, Texas Metro area on April 1, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Austin, Texas Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2887289). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2100 square feet, which is the median home size in the Austin, Texas Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 1, 2026. If no data for April 1 is released by April 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/19)Trader consensus on Polymarket prices the 415k–420k bin at 49.5% implied probability for Austin metro median home value on April 1, reflecting stabilization around late-March MLS data where median sold prices hit $418,000—up slightly from February's $412,000 (Austin Board of Realtors) but down 1.6–3.6% year-over-year. Rising inventory, up 6.6% recently, has empowered buyers and extended days on market, tempering price growth amid persistent elevated mortgage rates above 6.5%. Zillow's February ZHVI for Austin-Round Rock stands at $424,642 (down 5.9% YoY), but traders anticipate modest softening or metric-specific alignment near current sales medians, with resolution imminent and no major catalysts in the final days.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices the 415k–420k bin at 49.5% implied probability for Austin metro median home value on April 1, reflecting stabilization around late-March MLS data where median sold prices hit $418,000—up slightly from February's $412,000 (Austin Board of Realtors) but down 1.6–3.6% year-over-year. Rising inventory, up 6.6% recently, has empowered buyers and extended days on market, tempering price growth amid persistent elevated mortgage rates above 6.5%. Zillow's February ZHVI for Austin-Round Rock stands at $424,642 (down 5.9% YoY), but traders anticipate modest softening or metric-specific alignment near current sales medians, with resolution imminent and no major catalysts in the final days.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the Austin, Texas Metro area on April 1, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Austin, Texas Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2887289). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2100 square feet, which is the median home size in the Austin, Texas Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on April 1, 2026. If no data for April 1 is released by April 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/19)Trader consensus on Polymarket prices the 415k–420k bin at 49.5% implied probability for Austin metro median home value on April 1, reflecting stabilization around late-March MLS data where median sold prices hit $418,000—up slightly from February's $412,000 (Austin Board of Realtors) but down 1.6–3.6% year-over-year. Rising inventory, up 6.6% recently, has empowered buyers and extended days on market, tempering price growth amid persistent elevated mortgage rates above 6.5%. Zillow's February ZHVI for Austin-Round Rock stands at $424,642 (down 5.9% YoY), but traders anticipate modest softening or metric-specific alignment near current sales medians, with resolution imminent and no major catalysts in the final days.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices the 415k–420k bin at 49.5% implied probability for Austin metro median home value on April 1, reflecting stabilization around late-March MLS data where median sold prices hit $418,000—up slightly from February's $412,000 (Austin Board of Realtors) but down 1.6–3.6% year-over-year. Rising inventory, up 6.6% recently, has empowered buyers and extended days on market, tempering price growth amid persistent elevated mortgage rates above 6.5%. Zillow's February ZHVI for Austin-Round Rock stands at $424,642 (down 5.9% YoY), but traders anticipate modest softening or metric-specific alignment near current sales medians, with resolution imminent and no major catalysts in the final days.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

Related

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Will the median home value in the US be between $425,000 and $427,500 on April 1?

53%
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Will the median home value in the Los Angeles Metro area be between $1,175,000 and $1,180,000 on April 1?

35%
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Will the median home value in the San Francisco Metro area be between $1,175,000 and $1,185,000 on April 1?

43%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"What will the median home value in the Austin, Texas Metro area be on April 1?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "415 - 420k" at 57%, followed by "410 - 415k" at 12%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 57¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 57% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"What will the median home value in the Austin, Texas Metro area be on April 1?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Feb 28, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "What will the median home value in the Austin, Texas Metro area be on April 1?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "What will the median home value in the Austin, Texas Metro area be on April 1?" is "415 - 420k" at 57%, meaning the market assigns a 57% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "410 - 415k" at 12%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "What will the median home value in the Austin, Texas Metro area be on April 1?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.